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The most immediate threat to peace in Taiwan was the reaction of Nationalist Party members, who rioted to protest President Lee Teng-hui's failure to hold on to the presidency. A crowd of about 3,000 stormed the party headquarters in Taipei chanting "Step down president!" And indeed Lee promised to resign as party leader.

Chen's supporters were exuberant after his unexpected victory. At a rally Saturday, deputy campaign manager Lee Yi-yang took the stage and taunted China. "The Taiwanese people have stood up," he shouted. "The Taiwanese are taking back Taiwan." Lee's words, a play on the famous 'Chinese people have stood up' speech made by Mao Zedong after the Communists won the civil war, are a direct challenge to Beijing.

But if Lee can afford to taunt China -- he was addressing a crowd of faithful supporters -- president-elect Chen cannot. During the campaign, Chen toned down his rhetoric and stopped demanding a referendum on independence. In his victory address, he called repeatedly for peace, dialogue and talks between the two countries.

Still, it is clear where Chen's sentiments lie. "We are unable to accept one country, two systems, or any such system," he said at his post-election press conference. "We will not become a second Hong Kong or Macau."

In Taiwan's first-ever presidential election in 1996, China tried to influence the vote by firing missiles near Taiwan's two main ports. The tactic backfired then, as Taiwan elected the candidate most disliked by Beijing, and now once again, the small island has defied its huge neighbor.

In the weeks preceding the election, China had escalated its threats against Taiwan, culminating in Prime Minister Zhu Rongji's warning that China would shed blood to retake Taiwan, which it considers a renegade province.

Chen's victory appears to have taken the United States by surprise -- he trailed in the polls for much of the campaign -- but the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto U.S. Embassy, expressed cautious optimism. "Chen's response to the threats from Zhu Rongji was very low-key," said a senior U.S. official. "He has consistently downplayed all the threats, and we hope he will continue to do so."

During the campaign, the ruling Nationalist Party warned of dire consequences if Chen were elected, including Chinese missiles falling in central Taiwan and the stock market dropping almost to zero. Now they must hope their predictions don't come true. Taipei's stock market index dropped 2.5 percent Monday, a sign that some investors are worried about the escalation in tension.

Few people here underestimate China's desire to take back Taiwan. China is a nationalistic nation with a huge chip on its shoulder. It sees its present status in the world -- a large, poor country with modest global clout -- as a historical aberration. Taiwan's very existence as a separate country -- let alone an economic powerhouse and a bastion of democracy -- is an ongoing humiliation to the mainland.

Chen's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is unlikely to throw a match into the tinderbox, at least not on purpose. There is little to fear from the personalities in the party, who have matured considerably since the party was founded in 1986. In the years following its inception, the DPP was a firebrand opposition party, but as it gathered support among the people and in the local and national government, it softened its rhetoric.

When DPP leaders gathered for Chen's post-victory press conference, the mood was serious and sober, and when party Chairman Lin I-hsiung addressed the media, he was calm and conciliatory.

Still, the party's written platforms are sure to enrage China. In its China Policy White Paper, issued in November, the DPP declares that Taiwan is a sovereign and independent country, and not a part of China in any way. It further states that any change in relations between the two countries must have the consent of the people of Taiwan. It is a declaration of de facto independence.

Chen has distanced himself from the party platform, saying discussions are possible under any framework, but he adds two key caveats: Any changes to the status quo must be approved by the people of Taiwan, and Taiwan must be treated as an equal. But China has never regarded Taiwan's government as legitimate, let alone equal, and thus the relationship begins in mutual suspicion.

On Monday, Chinese President Jiang Zemin dismissed the suggestion that the two governments are equal, and said that "negotiations across the Taiwan Strait should have a basis, namely, the one-China principle must first be recognized."

Next page | Just say no to China