If nothing else, the Hainan Island standoff seems to have brought Powell back to center stage, and to many who have watched the early weeks of Bush administration foreign policy, this comes as welcome news. Powell brings a worldliness to the administration lacking in other key administration officials, who seem to chart foreign policy chiefly in terms of domestic calculations.

Many in Europe were caught off guard by the emphatic Bush embrace of Israel, and his shying away from applying any real pressure on Ariel Sharon to move the peace process forward. What creates real confusion is the almost flippant way in which major issues are discussed. When Bush met with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak at the White House on Monday, he insisted to reporters afterward that, contrary to what critics might charge, he is very involved with Middle East politics. After all, Bush said, he had just been talking about it with his visitor! The tin ear for how this sounds to Europeans and other foreigners guarantees that the over-the-top and sometimes unfair mockery -- especially in France -- of the current chief executive as "an idiot" will continue.

So who cares? Why does it matter to Americans if many in Europe, including political and opinion leaders, see the United States veering toward a kind of political isolation? Because the competition that matters in the post-Cold War world is economic competition -- and Europe remains a potential rival. According to figures provided by the European Central Bank, the countries of the Euro Zone last year accounted for 16.2 percent of the world's gross domestic product. That's shy of the U.S. percentage of 21.9 -- but not by much.

As of now, few investors prefer the euro to the dollar as a safe haven. But that could change. And with growing economic autonomy, Europe can be expected to develop more of a willingness to go its own way diplomatically. Russian President Vladimir Putin was energetically courting Schroeder and other European leaders long before the Bush team raised eyebrows with its expulsion of 50 alleged Russian spies. The courtship paid off when European leaders offered Putin immediate political support after the tit-for-tat spy expulsions. Watch for this relationship to continue to grow in ways confounding to the Americans -- especially if private talks between Russia and Germany bear fruit on the topic of Germany reclaiming at least partial hegemony over its former territory of Koenigsberg, known since 1946 as Kaliningrad.

After the disturbing events of the past week, the Bush foreign policy team may be forced to adopt a more conciliatory stance toward China. But it is far from certain whether Bush and his advisors will come to appreciate how deeply they have stirred the pot of anti-American resentment among our European allies.

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