"The danger is that we'll have a non-elected government that wants to help us and alienates its people in the process, not unlike the Shah of Iran. In Pakistan, it's not uncommon for the elites to get out of touch with the people. The ruling class is a patina of Western civilization upon a very volatile culture. Parts of Pakistan are like the Wild West."
One way to limit any anti-American backlash within Afghanistan or Pakistan would be to arm the anti-Taliban forces, the Northern Alliance, within Afghanistan. Talks between the Northern Alliance and the United States have taken on a "frantic" pitch, according to CNN. On Wednesday, Northern Alliance officials told CNN that in the past 24 hours, the U.S. asked for information on "possible targets including airports, weapons depots, military headquarters, training camps, troop positions and movements."
While using the Northern Alliance as a proxy to fight a war against the Taliban may help the United States adopt a lower military profile, the strategy poses a series of other problems.
Just before the attacks in the United States, Northern Alliance leader Ahmed Shah Massoud was assassinated, depriving the disparate band of rebels that make up the Alliance of their leader. Cote says the Alliance option was already problematic, and this makes it more so.
"It is far from clear that if we step in and try to support the Northern Alliance that it will have any effect," Cote says. "They fought a two-year war with the Taliban -- with heavy support from the Russians -- and the Taliban won. And now without Massoud, the movement is really a collection of small groups that now is without its leader."
"I'm sure it's being considered," says Thompson. "The main problem is the relative weakness of the Northern Alliance. They've only got a toehold left in Afghanistan, and now they've lost their most charismatic leader at the worst possible time."
Another danger in arming the Alliance is creating another military Frankenstein. The Taliban had tacit support from the United States, which at the very least looked the other way when the Pakistani government supplied the Taliban with weapons. Another example of the law of unintended consequences came during the 1980s, when the United States gave heavy military support to Iraq in its decade-long war against Iran, only to end up fighting its own war against Iraq in 1991.
But assisting the Northern Alliance is still one of America's best options, experts say. Afghan soldiers know the terrain, have a better chance of infiltrating the Taliban and, because they're fighting for their homeland, are "more invested in the battle," says Sapolsky.
Of course, the Soviet Union tried a similar strategy in the early 1980s. But the Soviet Union's failures should not deter American efforts, says Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "Russia, frankly, is not as good as we are militarily, especially now," he says. They also didn't extend much support beyond small arms. O'Hanlon predicts that the U.S. will go further, offering air support and possibly tanks and high-powered artillery.
With added support, and since "we had a good track record in Bosnia with high levels of efficiency and success," he says, "I'm more optimistic about our prospects. Our chances are better than the Russians' were."
Regardless of political risks, Sapolsky says joining forces with the Northern Alliance, or arming them, may be necessary.
Next page: The first target: Iraq?