Dueling wedge issues in Wisconsin

Gay marriage isn't what it used to be, and Democrats may have found something -- stem cell research -- that trumps it.

By Alex Koppelman

Read more: Politics, News, Gay Marriage, Alex Koppelman

Aug. 3, 2006 | In 2004, observers attributed much of President Bush's slim margin of victory to the clever use of a single wedge issue. Ballot initiatives banning gay marriage may have lured more conservative voters to the polls in 11 states, and Bush won all those states except Michigan and Oregon.

Two years later, Republicans are again using gay marriage to rouse their socially conservative base. In November six more states will vote on whether to ban same-sex unions. But in the battleground state of Wisconsin, early polling suggests that gay marriage may be losing some of its Election Day magic -- and that Democrats have found a wedge issue of their own with as much or more drawing power.

Incumbent Gov. Jim Doyle, a Democrat, is embroiled in a close race with his Republican challenger, Rep. Mark Green. On July 19, President Bush vetoed a bill that would have allowed federal funding for research on new embryonic stem cell research. Green voted against federal funding, and then voted against it again when the Senate tried and failed to override Bush's veto. A USA Today/Gallup poll conducted in late July showed that 58 percent of Americans disapproved of Bush's veto, and 68 percent favored expanding federal funding for stem cell research. The Doyle campaign saw an opportunity.

On July 25, the campaign released an ad attacking Green on the issue. Titled "Six Times," the ad calls Green "too extreme to be governor." It features Wisconsin resident Jody Montgomery and her 4-year-old daughter, Maddy, who has juvenile diabetes. In the ad, Montgomery tells voters that "six times a day, I take Maddy's blood. Six times a day, it breaks my heart. It's stem cell researchers right here in Wisconsin who might find the cure. So when a Washington politician like Mark Green says he's going to outlaw stem cell research, I say, 'Tell it to my daughter.'"

The ad is just one part of a many-pronged effort by the Doyle campaign, which has hired a full-time stem cell coordinator and seeks to portray the governor as a hero on the issue in the state where the science was first pioneered in 1998. The campaign had already positioned Doyle as a supporter of research before Bush's veto and Green's votes. There are no poll numbers yet to suggest whether the approach is working, but an independent pollster says that in Wisconsin, as in the nation as a whole, the numbers are already on Doyle's side.

Within the state, says Kathy Cramer Walsh, an associate professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin, stem cell research enjoys broad support. "There's probably a pride factor going on," says Walsh. "It seems that there are a lot of people in Wisconsin who are in favor of stem cell research, are proud that some of the early research was done here, and also don't see it as an immoral act."

Walsh conducted a poll on stem cells, via the University of Wisconsin Survey Center, which gave respondents a series of statements and asked them to rate their feelings on a 10-point scale. A 1.0 indicated that they disagreed completely and a 10 meant they agreed completely. The average Wisconsinite rated the statement "I approve the use of stem cell research, as long as the usual levels of government regulation are in place" a 6.8, and the statement "I approve of stem cell research if it is more tightly regulated" a 6.4. The anti-research statement "It is ethically wrong to use human embryos in medical research even if it might offer promising new treatments" earned a mere 3.7.

Democrats have done their own internal polling on the issue. A paid Democratic strategist, who asked to remain anonymous because he is not authorized to speak on behalf of the campaign, called the results of that polling a "show-stopper." He declined to share specific numbers, but said, "Let's put it this way -- [the numbers were high] enough that we thought it was worth spending precious resources to put it on TV."

Green's campaign, meanwhile, charges that Doyle is misrepresenting his opponent's views. "The main beef with [Doyle's ad] is just that it's an outright lie," says Rob Vernon, communications director for the Green campaign. "They have a mom in the ad say that Mark Green wants to outlaw stem cell research, and that's absolutely not true." The Doyle ad refers to Green voting against stem cell research eight times, a number Vernon disputes. "The votes that they cite would have banned human cloning, and all the votes they talked about had specific carve-outs to protect stem cell research. He supports adult and umbilical cord blood stem cell research; he also supports the federal policy that's in place -- federal funding for embryonic stem cell lines that were in existence prior to August of 2001."

And should stem cells begin to erode Green's support, Republicans have already deployed their own proven wedge issue to rally their conservative base. If there has been an unstoppable force in American politics over the past decade, it is the march of opponents of same-sex marriage. They have launched voter referendums to ban the practice in 20 states and won in a landslide each time. Wisconsin will have an anti-gay marriage initiative on the ballot on Nov. 7, an amendment to the state Constitution that would ban same-sex unions.

The numbers, however, are not as favorable to Republicans as they have been in the past. Polls show that Wisconsin voters are more closely divided than voters have been in other states. The previous gay-marriage ban that came closest to failing, Oregon's 2004 referendum, still drew 57 percent support. In Wisconsin, however, a poll conducted in mid-June by WisPolitics.com showed Wisconsinites evenly divided on a proposed amendment to the state's Constitution that would prohibit same-sex marriage and civil unions.

The poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, found that 48.5 percent of Wisconsin adults supported the bill, while 47.8 opposed it and 3.7 percent were undecided or refused to answer. A similar poll released July 17 by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center showed 52.5 percent in favor of the bill, 43.8 percent opposed and 3 percent undecided.

Next page: "On the stem cell issue, Democrats play the culture card"