Kansas Republicans evolve -- into Democrats

But there is a split. The Johnson County Republicans even put up a Web site, since taken down, naming the names of the moderate Republicans In Name Only they most despised. The moderates formed their own anti-conservative group called the Kansas Traditional Republican Majority.

It may be bad news for Democrats, says Aistrup, that the moderates seem to have won the latest round in the battle. The conservatives, via Freeman and chairman Tim Shallenburger, still run the party, but the moderates knocked conservatives off the school board and won several legislative primaries. "So the Democrats in some ways were the losers," says Aistrup, "with the moderate comeback in the Republican Party in 2006."

At the same time, says Aistrup, the addition of former Republicans may be shifting Kansas Democrats to the right. "Any time, as a party, you start expanding the base to include former members of the other party, you're recalibrating the party to a more moderate point of view."

Thomas Frank views these new Democrats with a healthy dose of skepticism. "I like to see Democrats win, and I like Kathleen Sebelius," he says. "On the other hand, I don't think it's that great a victory if people come to the Democratic Party without any kind of change of heart, or if the Democratic Party is just becoming full of moderate Republicans. Then that's, in some ways, a terrible defeat for my side, for Team Liberal."

There is certainly evidence that the Sebelius strategy has not yet made the state more Democratic. Today the Kansas House has four fewer Democrats than it did in 2002, and the number of Democratic state senators remains a dismal 10 out of 40. Both Democratic and Republican voter registrations have fallen since 2002, but the Democratic decrease is bigger.

But there are also signs of resurgence. In 2004, 39 Democrats ran for Republican-held House and Senate seats. This year, 58 Democrats are contesting Republican seats. Kansas Democratic Party leaders say that they've partnered with Howard Dean's Democratic National Committee to get more people organized at the precinct level, and to get more candidates in races. In Johnson County, the real battleground, where Republicans hold 21 out of 22 state House seats, most incumbent Republicans ran unopposed in 2002. This year, Democrats will contest all but one seat.

Mark Parkinson says the real change is behind closed doors, at least in Shadow Glen and the swanker precincts of Cupcake Land. "Unless you're running for office, there's no reason to go down to the courthouse and change your voter registration. I talk to people every day who are registered Republicans but tend to support Kathleen and Paul, they just don't have any reason to go down and change their registration." "A lot of people," Parkinson insists, "have switched mentally."

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