Jefferson got only 30 percent of the vote this past November, forcing a December runoff with second-place finisher Karen Carter. Many Washington Democrats were privately pulling for Carter, but to no avail: Jefferson easily won the runoff, thus complicating Speaker Nancy Pelosi's task of juggling her need for support from the Congressional Black Caucus while delivering on her election-year promises for ethics reform on Capitol Hill. "I think Jefferson's predicament hurts the party nationally and discourages Democratic activists within New Orleans and Louisiana," says one Democrat with deep roots in the city's politics. "It also makes it impossible for New Orleans to have good active representation in the House at a time when the city needs someone to be fighting -- and fighting hard -- for resources to aid its recovery."
Come 2012, Jefferson or his successor could be the last Louisiana Democrat in the U.S. House. Most of the Democrats who have left Louisiana since Katrina came from Jefferson's district. The party now controls both chambers of the state Legislature, but that could change by 2010. A recent study by Louisiana State University at Shreveport professor Jeff Sadow suggests that term limits may help Republicans capture at least one chamber of the state Legislature this fall. If the GOP runs the redistricting process, Republicans could well pack many of the state's remaining Democrats (particularly black ones) into the 2nd District.
That would help Republicans pick off the only other Democratic congressman still standing, 3rd District Rep. Charlie Melancon. One of the last of a dying breed of white Southern Democrats, Melancon is the Republicans' most obvious target. In 2006, he won reelection to a second term with just 55 percent in a district that tilted slightly Republican in the past two presidential contests. The only encouraging note for Democrats is that St. Bernard Parish, the jurisdiction in Melancon's district hardest hit by Katrina, was Republican leaning. Still, the consensus from several Louisiana experts with whom I consulted is that there is the possibility that the current five-to-two congressional delegation advantage for Republicans could become five to one by 2012.
Looking ahead, trouble also looms for Landrieu. The two-term senator, who made Playboy's 2000 list of "Washington's sexiest power brokers" and was considered by some a possible 2004 vice-presidential pick, confronts an uphill battle for reelection in 2008.
In 2002, Landrieu failed to get the requisite majority in November, forcing her runoff with Republican Suzanne Terrell, which Landrieu won with a mere 52 percent of the vote. "For a Democrat who has always been in very competitive, close races, the demographic changes in Louisiana don't bode well for Landrieu," says Mann. "The Democratic presidential nominee, especially if it's a liberal who is unacceptable to large numbers of voters in Louisiana, could pose additional problems for Landrieu. If Jindal is governor and the Legislature is in Republican hands, she'll face reelection in a much more hostile environment than six years ago. Last time, she had John Breaux to campaign for her. This time, her colleague is David Vitter, who will not sleep until he sees her replaced by another Republican."
Louisiana is, at last, about to look a lot more like its Deep South neighbors politically. There has been something of an inverse relationship in recent presidential elections between the share of black voters and Republican performance. That is, the blacker the state, the bigger the Republican margins. Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina are all states with black populations close to or above a third, the highest percentage in the nation -- and not a Democratic senator, governor or, since 1992, Democratic electoral vote among them.
Along with Florida, Louisiana had been different, a state where multiracial coalitions propelled Clinton, Landrieu and Blanco to victories. In Louisiana, a black population of 32.5 percent made victory for Democrats possible. The post-Katrina question is whether the black population will remain large enough for Democrats to continue building such coalitions, especially if there is a backlash among white voters in the noncoastal portions of the state toward Blanco, controversial New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin and state Democrats in general. Recent polls, however, are not promising, and they also show how resolutely racial party identification has become in the Deep South. The blacker the state, the more Republican the whites are.
Despite the "heckuva job" performance of the Bush administration during Katrina, the president's approval rating among whites in Louisiana -- 57 percent -- is tied for second best in the nation with Georgia and Idaho, trailing only Mississippi's 61 percent. The link between whiteness and Republicanism in the South is now so strong that it can even withstand a Category 5 hurricane. Now, without the tipping-point power of the Orleans Parish black electorate, Louisiana may well become the new Mississippi, which has two Republican senators and a Republican governor and hasn't given its electoral votes to a Democrat since Jimmy Carter.
Whatever the fate of the displaced people who are trying to move back to the state or to the city of New Orleans, the next two years will be vital to the future of Louisiana's Democrats. John Maginnis, who writes a regular column on state politics, recently summarized the situation. "Republicans may be in disarray in Washington," wrote Maginnis, "but they are on the march in Louisiana, aiming to make 2007 the year they take over." That's why many state Democrats are privately hoping the rumors about John Breaux running for governor are true. He may be the only person who can save the party.
About the writer
Thomas F. Schaller is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Maryland at Baltimore County and the author of "Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South."
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