Probably 95 percent of Salon readers violently disagree with you on Iraq. And that's probably a conservative estimate. Is there something that you could say to them so they could look back in, say, five years and say, "You know, Joe Lieberman may have had a point"?
I know mistakes were made in the way the administration advocated for the war with an almost exclusive emphasis on WMD [weapons of mass destruction]. But I think they did the right thing in overthrowing Saddam Hussein.
I think that very serious mistakes were made in the prosecution of the war after Saddam Hussein was overthrown. I believe that the president stuck with Secretary [Donald] Rumsfeld much too long. And stuck with a strategy that was not working for much too long.
But last fall they began to reevaluate. They brought [Gen. David] Petraeus back. He had, in some sense, been yanked out of Iraq because he had some odd views, according to the prevailing wisdom [under Rumsfeld]. The president went to him because people told him that he was the smartest guy we have in the military in counterinsurgency. A new strategy, a new general -- and I think there are some signs of success.
Here's what I would say to people who are opposed to the war. Acknowledging all the mistakes that were made -- and even if you thought that we shouldn't have gone in -- how this war ends will have a substantial effect on our security and our children's security in the years ahead. If we picked up as quickly as we could and pulled out -- as a lot of people here [in the Senate] think we should -- it will be a very damaging loss of credibility for us. It will be a loss for us and it will be a victory for al-Qaida and Iran, who will capitalize on our retreat.
Admiral [Mike] Mullen, the [nominee for] chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was at our Armed Services Committee hearing. He's not a cheerleader for the war in Iraq. He gave a very straightforward [report saying], "We're making progress militarily," but he's very upset about the lack of political progress. If we just pull out of there, not only are we going to be risking the lives of our troops who are there, but we will be doing exactly what Iran and al-Qaida want us to do. It will have a terrible effect on the whole region.
He [Mullen] was quite interesting. He said that Iran is now supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan. They have had an historic hatred between them. And Mullen used the phrase, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend."
What does that mean? Iran is trying to support anybody who will put pressure on us to get out of Iraq and Afghanistan.
So, in one sentence, what would I say? If we pull out of Iraq while there is still hope to stabilize the country -- and I believe there is -- it will be a victory for Iran and al-Qaida. And it will destabilize the Middle East. And stability in the Middle East has, for a long time now, been directly related to what we think to be security for the United States.
Do you see differences among the Democratic presidential candidates, particularly the ones you serve with in the Senate, on how we pull out from Iraq? They're all in favor of pulling out, but, for example, Hillary Clinton has talked about residual forces, and Chris Dodd is saying no residual troops. And Barack Obama is closer to the Hillary Clinton point of view. Do you see these as significant differences?
I was there [as a presidential candidate] in 2004. I know the Democratic primary electorate. They [the Democratic candidates] are racing to get ahead of this antiwar feeling among the Democratic primary voters. They're trying to compete about who can get more troops out more quickly. But if you parse them, you can find some differences, you're absolutely right.
A couple of months ago, Hillary Clinton said in a New York Times interview that she thought that it was important that we understand that there would be some longer-term presence of American forces in Iraq -- and there have to be. It was a disappointing day when Clinton and Obama voted for Reid-Feingold, which would have us get most of our troops out by next March.
What about Joe Biden? He, unlike his Senate rivals, voted for the latest round of war appropriations.
You can parse different things out of Joe's positions. Everything is comparative. In this field, he has been the most willing to occasionally say things about Iraq that are not calculated to win applause at a debate or a town hall meeting.
He said in the YouTube debate, after Bill Richardson said, "I'm for every troop out by the end of this year," ... Joe [Biden] said, "Let's be honest about it. We're not going to get all the troops out by the end of the year." Well, we can't.
It's an accurate rendition of what Richardson and Biden said in the debate.
Look, the overall concern I have is that this race to pacify the antiwar voters in the Democratic primary electorate means that the Democratic candidates for president will take a position, even in a country that's not satisfied with the way the war is going, that will alarm the majority of voters. Because it will be to the left of where most voters are.
Once again -- notwithstanding all the negative feelings toward President Bush and the Republicans in Congress -- this election, in my opinion, will be a tossup. On the central question of security ... people understand that this is a dangerous world. And, ultimately, on education and healthcare and all that, they want the president to lead, but they know their member of Congress can do some things on that. But when it comes to security, ultimately, that's what they turn to a president for.
I worry that whoever gets the Democratic nomination will have a hard time scampering back to assure people that they're prepared to take on the Islamist extremists and [any] other nation that threatens our security.
Turning to another thing --
They don't use that. You'll have to check it. But they don't use the term "Islamist extremism" or "Islamist terrorism" in the debates.
Are you saying it's "political correctness" on the part of the Democrats?
You've got to acknowledge the problem.
You got a lot of criticism from bloggers for making a recent speech to Christians United for Israel. Everybody in politics makes speeches to groups that they haven't fully researched. Did you know exactly what you were endorsing when you spoke to them?
I know that they were very supportive of Israel, as I am. That they were supportive of the war in Iraq, which I am. And that they were very agitated about the rise of this particular Iranian regime. So I certainly didn't know -- and I don't know -- I go before groups all the time when I don't agree with them on everything.
So you are not endorsing their belief that the Rapture is imminent and that war in the Middle East presages that.
I have seen some things where Pastor [John] Hagee himself, the founder of the group, doesn't give support to that notion. But that's a private theological matter.
Two reasons I went. One is a sign of my independence and liberation. I'm a believer that the more people you have in politics, the better. And that includes people of faith. If that is their motivation -- and no pun intended -- God bless them.
On the purpose for which the [group] is organized -- support of our ally Israel and opposition to extremist regimes that threaten both Israel and the United States -- I don't have any regrets about it. It was fascinating to me, actually, how enthusiastic the response was to the comments that I made about Iraq and Iran the night that I spoke.
Let me ask one last question. Do you see any similarity between the fall of John McCain as a presidential candidate -- leading the polls for a long while and then challenging his party on a visceral issue -- and the fall of Joe Lieberman as a presidential candidate, who about this point in 2003 was leading in the polls?
Maybe this is why McCain and I are such close friends. I respect him. His candidacy really suffered for his honestly and sincerely held belief in immigration reform. I don't think it was the Iraq war.
No, it was immigration for McCain, and Iraq for you.
It's hard to compare two campaigns. Even notwithstanding the Iraq war, it is possible that I would not have won the Democratic nomination in '04 for other reasons. But that was clearly the main reason why people were not voting for me.
But John [McCain] may come back. It's still early. I think he still can come back. I think he's different. He has honest and heroic qualities that may bring him back as this goes on. It probably requires some of those who are in the lead to stumble. But we'll see.
Do you see a chance for the Democratic nominee to be somebody who isn't named Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton?
Anything is possible in politics. It could be somebody named John Edwards. But I think the odds are that it will be Clinton or Obama.
Thank you.
About the writer
Walter Shapiro is Salon's Washington bureau chief. A complete listing of his articles is here.
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