Are you there, God? It's me, Rudy

As proved by Bishop Tobin's column, and the existence of anti-Giuliani conservative groups like this one, a few dissenting voices will be enough to generate controversy. "It's becoming ever more clear that Rudy Giuliani suffers from John Kerry syndrome," Joseph Cella, president of Fidelis, a Catholic advocacy group, told the New York Times earlier this year. "[H]e shares the identical position on abortion as John Kerry and Hillary Clinton." Fidelis ran ads slamming Giuliani's pro-choice stance in Iowa prior to August's straw poll.

Giuliani is also, after one annulment and one divorce, on his third marriage. His marital history exacerbates his problems with devout Catholics. "Rudy's a lousy Catholic," said Casey. "He hasn't taken communion in years because of his marital problems. I think the Catholic bishops are gunning for him. If he's dumb enough to show up asking for communion, they're going to whack him." Several Catholic bishops have already signaled that they would deny Giuliani this sacrament. Giuliani may come to regret saying, as he did in August, "The degree to which I am a good or not so good Catholic, I prefer to leave to the priests."

But if the Tobin episode hinted that a more general rebuke might be forthcoming from the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, that possibility became a bit more remote after the 300-plus bishops assembled in Baltimore in November. They ratified a new political document, "Forming Consciences for Faithful Citizenship," which provides a bit of wiggle room on abortion for Catholics. "Can a Catholic in good conscience vote for a candidate who is pro-choice?" The Rev. Thomas J. Reese of Georgetown University's Woodstock Theological Center asked rhetorically in the New York Times. "What [the Bishops] are saying is, 'Yes.'"

Moreover, Giuliani's anti-terrorism profile could be an asset among conservative Catholics, especially white Catholics. "In 2004, when the rest of the electorate told exit pollsters that 'moral values' was their top issue, white Catholics cited terrorism," observes Scott Winship, a social policy analyst and frequent contributor to "the Democratic Strategist" Web site.

Whites, however, now account for fewer Catholic voters than they once did. In November 2008, one out of four Catholic voters will be Latino. Kerry easily won Latino Catholics in the last election cycle. They chose him by 5-to-3 over Bush, with little difference in the behavior of "weekly attenders" and the "less devout." Should he reach the general election, Giuliani could be helped or hindered by Latino Catholic voters, depending on whether he runs on his record or his primary-season rhetoric. As mayor of New York, Giuliani presided over a so-called sanctuary city. As a contender for the Republican nomination, he has tried to out-flip-flop Mitt Romney by talking tougher-than-thou on illegal immigration. If he became the GOP candidate, would he tack back to the center to make amends with Latinos? Would the GOP base let him?

Finally, one of the reasons that Kerry remained competitive with Bush is that he ran even among another one of Catholicism's fastest-growing cohorts: the less devout. And less observant, younger and more politically moderate Catholics may have no problem with Rudy's views on social issues, but they may not like the fact that he has Norman Podhoretz on his foreign policy team. "I think Rudy might have a difficult time appealing to many white Catholics not only because of his positions on abortion and gay rights, but also because he is so hawkish on foreign policy," predicts Olson. "The abortion and gay rights positions would hurt him with one distinct group of white Catholics -- those who are most observant and most conservative -- but the foreign policy positions might hurt him with more moderate-to-progressive white Catholics."

Come November 2008, will any of these factors change the electoral map? Looked at on a state-by-state basis, the most favorable scenario for Giuliani is in his home region. Among white Catholics, there is a slight Republican skew to weekly attenders, men and those with higher incomes. This could conceivably help Giuliani in the Northeast, which is heavy on both high-income households and Catholics and where Bush's reliance on the security issue, Giuliani's strong suit, had some traction in the last presidential contest. According to 2004 exit polls, Catholics cast at least 31 percent of the vote in nine Northeastern states: New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Delaware. Realistically, in a close election, only New Hampshire and Pennsylvania would truly be in play next fall. But both would represent GOP pickups, and Pennsylvania alone would be a crucial loss of electoral votes for Democrats.

Giuliani's success with Catholic voters in the Southwestern swing states, meanwhile, would depend on which Giuliani shows up for the general election, the sanctuary-city mayor or the anti-illegal immigration GOP primary contender. Among the dozen states decided by 5 percent or less in 2004, the most notable in terms of Catholic populations are Ohio, Florida and three Southwestern states: Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. Though Latino Catholics cast fewer than 5 percent of all votes nationally in the last presidential election, Latinos account for significant chunks of the Catholic population in all of these swing states except Ohio.

But Bush won all five of these states in 2004 anyway. The potential value of Giuliani's Catholicism among Latinos is therefore reduced to helping Republicans protect what they already have. It might be safer to assume the momentum will go in the other direction. Hispanic voters are swinging back toward the Democrats and, as Olson notes, any Democratic nominee is certain to have an immigration position more attractive to Latinos than that of Giuliani, no matter how much he tamps down his present rhetoric.

In short, the Republicans might be able to open up the electoral map in 2008 with the right Catholic candidate. But that person would have to be pro-life, immigration-friendly, and still on his or her starter marriage. Unfortunately for the GOP, no such candidate is available, because Rudy Giuliani fails on all three counts. "Bush won Catholics in 2004, but they broke Democratic in the 2006 midterm elections," says Casey. "But I'm not sure that a pro-choice NYC mayor is the guy to swing them back to the Republicans. The irony of the situation is that the Republicans may finally nominate a Catholic, but the wrong Catholic."

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