Then there's water. Typical ethanol plants consume 4 to 5 gallons of water per gallon of ethanol produced. That doesn't even count the water used to grow the crops, or the groundwater that is polluted by pesticide runoff. No wonder a recent National Research Council report found that if ethanol production keeps growing, "the effect on water quality could be considerable, and water supply problems could develop." This issue is especially problematic given that global warming is projected to reduce water resources over large parts of the globe, from both climate-change-induced drought and the melting of inland glaciers that feed so many of the world's rivers. China has stopped new biofuel plants from using corn in part because of water concerns.
And then there's food prices. As biofuel mandates drive up the demand for corn and soy, the prices of those food crops shoot up, making them -- and all their derivatives, like corn syrup and animal feed -- much more expensive. The higher price leads farmers to grow corn and soy in place of crops like wheat, whose prices then rise as supply drops in the face of growing demand.
One quarter -- and climbing -- of the U.S. corn crop is now being used for biofuels. In a recent article, "The End of Cheap Food," the Economist points out that its measure of average world food prices is "higher today than at any time since it was created in 1845." In just the past two years, food prices have jumped 75 percent in real terms. Some of this jump is due to changing diet from increased wealth, especially in Asia, which leads to a rise in meat use, and a rise in the price of grain for feed. That said, the Economist points out the amazing statistic that "the demands of America's ethanol program alone account for over half the world's unmet need for cereals." No wonder the magazine editorializes that the price rise is "the self-inflicted result of America's reckless ethanol subsidies."
We have met the enemy and he is us.
Why is anyone interested in biofuels at all? Back in the 1990s, there was a lot of excitement at the Department of Energy's office of energy efficiency and renewable energy (and elsewhere) about the prospect of low-greenhouse-gas-emitting ethanol from cellulosic sources, such as crop waste and dedicated low-impact crops like switchgrass. The department devoted considerable research dollars to making cellulosic ethanol practical. I remain a big proponent of such research, and also reemergent sources of potentially low-greenhouse-gas biodiesel, such as micro algae.
We still have a way to go. The first commercial cellulosic ethanol plant in the United States had its groundbreaking last month. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service said in September: "Although cellulosic-based production of renewable fuels holds some longer-term promise, much research is needed to make it commercially economical and expand beyond the 250-million-gallon minimum specified for 2013 in the Energy Policy Act of 2005."
When I was at the Department of Energy in the '90s, our answer to the question, "How much corn ethanol should we produce?" was "Whatever is the bare minimum needed to jump-start the transition to cellulosic ethanol." We are now way past that minimum. Yet for all the havoc our current biofuel use is having on national and global food prices, ethanol use must, by law, increase to 7.5 billion gallons by 2012, a jump of some 50 percent from current levels.
Regardless, cellulosic ethanol remains promising; unlike corn ethanol, it could be a significant part of the effort to cut transportation emissions 60 to 80 percent by 2050. But the promise has gotten ahead of the reality. Who knows if we can produce anywhere near 21 billion gallons by 2022? To meet the overall target, we're certainly going to have to max out on corn ethanol. Yet our current level of corn ethanol production is already hitting the national and global food market with hurricane force winds. And we're going to triple consumption in 15 years?
President Bush famously said in his 2006 State of the Union address that "we have a serious problem: America is addicted to oil." And yet one of the signs of addiction is not knowing when to stop. Now Bush has pushed the entire country toward a national addiction to alcohol.
About the writer
Dr. Joseph Romm is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, where he oversees ClimateProgress.org. He is the author of "Hell and High Water: Global Warming -- the Solution and the Politics." Romm served as acting assistant secretary of energy for energy efficiency and renewable energy in 1997. He holds a Ph.D. in physics from MIT.
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