McCain's last stand?

The citizens of Weare clap when McCain vows to fight to keep New Hampshire the "first in the nation" primary state, and they clap again when he claims he's never "sought or received" a pork-barrel project or earmark for Arizona. But it's quiet as McCain makes his way through the alternative minimum tax and his conservative bona fides, and it's quieter still as he discusses Iraq.

This is the odd spot for him. If McCain is the Republican candidate who holds the most appeal for New Hampshire independents –- they are 45 percent of the electorate and can vote in whichever primary they like on Jan. 8 -- he's also the one whose views on the war might be the least attractive for them. While a lot of other GOP contenders try to say as little as possible about the war, McCain makes it a centerpiece of his appeal. McCain says he was right all along when he argued that the United States needed more troops on the ground, and he clearly feels vindicated by whatever military success the "surge" is producing now. If the folks in the hall have paid attention, they know that McCain hasn't been as consistent on the war as he suggests. And even if they haven't, they're pretty clearly ambivalent about the idea of keeping large numbers of troops in Iraq for however long McCain thinks they need to be there. McCain mentions the "brave young Americans" serving in Iraq three times before anybody thinks to offer the obligatory respectful applause.

But McCain isn't about the applause, a point made clear as he segues into the question-and-answer part of the evening. When a charming old crank in a veteran's cap asks McCain about a report that Hershey's is closing plants and outsourcing some of its chocolate production -- "I don't want to eat Mexican chocolate," he says -- McCain sympathizes but then counters that lowering tariffs on foreign sugar will make the man's candy bars cheaper. When a woman asks about immigration, McCain explains why he backed immigration reform, why he thought it had failed -- the American people didn't trust Washington -- and then pushes back by saying that we still need a plan that treats people as "children of God."

Toward the end of the night, a man in the back rises to ask about the injustices of the war. What he has in mind: the way in which the Marines allegedly involved in atrocities in Haditha faced prosecution while the New York Times goes unpunished for publishing information that puts the troops at risk. The man is honestly saddened by what he's discussing; his voice cracks with emotion as he speaks. McCain's response: He says nothing at all about the Times, and he says he's glad that U.S. troops are held accountable for their actions when they've appeared to have crossed the line.

Is this a way to win the presidency? Maybe so. McCain's grown-up approach won him the endorsements of the Des Moines Register and the Boston Globe last weekend, and Joe Lieberman's sort-of across-the-aisle endorsement Monday has brought a new wave of media attention to a campaign that was left for dead this summer. McCain's people hope that his old-school approach will speak to New Hampshire voters looking for a safe choice -- that he'll be, in Peterson's words, a candidate who "wears well."

"I think he's settled on a message," says University of New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala. "Last time, he was the maverick candidate. This time, he's coming across more as the reliable candidate, the reliable commander in chief. I think that plays with folks." With Giuliani's "star falling," Scala says that "there's no one between McCain and Romney right now," and he gives the underdog a "fighting chance" of coming out on top. "That said, my sense is that McCain is going to need some help, and that's going to be in the form of a Huckabee victory in Iowa and probably a pretty big victory in Iowa that presents Romney as damaged goods to New Hampshire voters."

The Romney campaign is working hard to prevent that scenario. Romney will be splitting his time pretty evenly between Iowa and New Hampshire over the next couple of weeks, and Romney spokesman Kevin Madden downplays what he calls McCain's "quote-unquote surge." "McCain was the president of New Hampshire, and he ought to be doing a lot better," Madden says. "Early on in the year he was [polling] in the 40s, and everyone was pointing to that as strength. Now he's in the high teens and 20s, and it's being labeled a surge. There's a structural deficiency there."

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