Sizing up Petraeus on Iraq

Claim: Iran's influence in Iraq is really bad; the Iranians are arming "special groups," or rogue militias that are a threat to the Iraqi central government.

Petraeus: "Together with the Iraqi security forces, we have also focused on the special groups. These elements are funded, trained, armed and directed by Iran's Qods force, with help from Lebanese Hezbollah."

Crocker: "Iran continues to undermine the efforts of the Iraqi government to establish a stable, secure state through the authority and training of criminal militia elements engaged in violence against Iraqi security forces, Coalition forces and Iraqi civilians."

Iranian meddling in Iraq is one of the murkiest and most difficult parts of the picture to assess. The United States has made various claims about direct Iranian involvement in military activity in Iraq, although evidence of such involvement has been unclear. But there can be no doubt about Iranian influence in Iraq more broadly: For example, the Iranians, not the Americans, reportedly brokered the recent cease-fire in Basra. And the Iranians have significant ties to the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, led by Shiite cleric Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, a crucial member of the coalition keeping Maliki in power. As Crocker admitted on Tuesday, "Iran has a dialogue with everyone in the Shiite community."

Claim: "Al-Qaida in Iraq" is also pretty bad. But we are kicking their ass in Iraq, and by extension, Osama bin Laden's.

Petraeus: "The threat posed by AQI [al-Qaida in Iraq] -- while still lethal and substantial -- has been reduced significantly ... Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri have consistently advocated exploiting the situation in Iraq, and we have also seen AQI involved in destabilizing activities in the wider Mideast region."

The gains in this respect have been trumpeted as one of the great successes of the past year in Iraq. By some accounts, al-Qaida in Iraq -- or what the Bush administration, at least, labels as some sort of organization there linked with Osama bin Laden's -- is on its heels in Iraq. This is mostly because the group or groups of militants overplayed their hand with extreme violence against Iraqis, and Sunnis, particularly in western Iraq, turned against them. Nevertheless, the connection between "AQI" and Osama bin Laden's terrorist organization is considered dubious by experts, who warn not to think of AQI and al-Qaida as the same thing.

Claim: The recent battle of Basra, in which government forces led by Maliki, a Shiite, attacked militias affiliated with Muqtada al-Sadr, another Shiite, was a positive development. Maliki was cracking down on criminals, including Shiites.

Crocker: "When viewed with a broader lens, the Iraqi decision to combat these groups in Basra has major significance. First, a Shiite majority government, led by Prime Minister Maliki, has demonstrated its commitment to taking on criminals and extremists regardless of sectarian identity. Second, Iraqi security forces led these operations in Basra and in towns and cities throughout the south."

Some observers think Maliki dispatched Iraqi troops to Basra not to enforce law and order, but to weaken his political adversary, Sadr, before elections in October. Maliki only gave the Americans a heads-up about the operation just before it started.

Tactical success was another matter. The Iraqi units arrived in Basra driving armored vehicles too fat to fit into some of Basra's skinny alleys. More than 1,000 Iraqi policemen and soldiers sent there by Maliki refused to fight, including at least two senior field commanders in the battle. The Bush administration had, at first, called the offensive a "defining moment" that would prove the Iraqi military's mettle. And Maliki had, at first, vowed to see it through to victory. But it was, at best, a stalemate.

Claim: The Iraqis have redesigned their flag -- which is a big deal because it suggests that Iraq is pulling together as a nation and that things will turn out well.

Crocker: "In January, a vote by the Council of Representatives to change the design of the Iraqi flag means the flag now flies in all parts of the country for the first time in years."

So, if the nation has pulled together, why are we still there again?

Admission: This summer, there will be no further reduction of U.S. troops in Iraq beyond the ongoing drawdown; the occupation will flatten out at pre-surge levels, around 140,000 troops.

Petraeus: "I recommended to my chain of command that we continue the drawdown of the surge combat forces and that, upon the withdrawal of the last surge brigade combat team in July, we undertake a 45-day period of consolidation and evaluation. At the end of that period, we will commence a process of assessment to examine the conditions on the ground and, over time, determine when we can make recommendations for further reductions."

In essence: With the occupation after this summer holding steady at roughly 140,000 U.S. troops, the Iraq war will now be, definitively, the next American president's problem.

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