For superdelegates, most of whom are active politicians, to choose is to lose the support of either the Obamaniacs or the Hillary-ites in their state or district. "I don't want to alienate anybody, period," said the Democratic House member from the Southwest, whose district went for Obama but whose state opted for Clinton. The congressman, facing a competitive reelection race in November, explained, "I come from a district that is a Republican district. I've got to win independents. I need to win Republicans ... I think it helps me, in my own district, not to say anything." Even before the latest round of controversy over Obama's former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright, this House member worried that if he endorsed for president, he would be blamed for something his candidate said or did.
Four-term Rep. Rick Larsen, from a district in northwestern Washington state that went for Obama, says he's not thrilled about attending the convention. "Four days in Denver hiking and fishing, I'm all in," Larsen said. "Four days in Denver going to a convention? It's not at the top of my list."
The superdelegates were created by the Democrats before the 1984 primaries, and aside from putting Walter Mondale over the top in 1984, they have been an irrelevant wrinkle in party rules until now. But few Democrats ever envisioned that they would make a difference in 2008, a campaign year when the nominee was expected to be selected amid the flurry of Feb. 5 primaries and caucuses. It was not until mid-March, after Obama failed to clinch the nomination by losing the Ohio and Texas primaries, that Larsen realized he could be casting a decisive vote. "Early on it dawned at me I didn't like being a superdelegate," he said. "The whole process of superdelegates was created to make sure that [elected] delegates didn't do anything too rash -- as if they need a bunch of know-it-alls telling them what to do."
Most uncommitted superdelegates recognize that they may be forced to make a decision on a nominee in the best interests of the Democratic Party. Even if Obama sweeps all the remaining primaries, he will not have enough elected delegates to win the nomination without a boost from the remaining undecided superdelegates. But for the most part, these neutral superdelegates do not see the logic behind a rush to judgment now, since the primaries will likely drag on until Montana and South Dakota vote on June 3. As Iowa Democratic chairman Scott Brennan, whose state got the ball rolling with Obama winning its Jan. 3 caucuses, put it, "My intention is to wait until all the primaries are over and to let the rest of the Democrats, independents and a significant number of Republicans speak. And then to see what the lay of the land is at that point."
A sweep by Obama of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries Tuesday could change everyone's calculus. "If one of the candidates wins both those states, I think it does become a game-changing day -- and it's going to push a lot of superdelegates to a faster decision," said Larsen, the undecided Washington congressman. In the end, superdelegates appear to want what almost everyone else in the game (the candidates, their staffs, party leaders and the press) craves -- a decisive result. "I guess I hope that one candidate or the other in a sense says, 'Yep, the other guy won,' and lets it go at that -- pretty much what happened with the Republicans," said the House member from the Southwest, sounding wistful. "I don't know if it's going to happen."
But all bets are off if Tuesday offers a split verdict, and Clinton gains enough support in the closing month to close her gap with Obama to, say, 100 pledged delegates. This would be a formula for the fight to go all the way to the Denver convention.
And at that point, it would not only be the superdelegates who were in play. A little-known loophole in Democratic Party rules potentially frees up every delegate -- even those selected in primaries and caucuses -- to shift their allegiance at the convention. All that delegates are required to do is to "in all good conscience" reflect the sentiments of the voters who chose them. For delegates with flexible consciences, the sky is theoretically the limit. "The press is wrong in exclusively focusing on the superdelegates," says a member of the Democratic National Committee, who has closely studied the convention rulebook. "If it goes to the Convention, everybody's up for grabs."
Small wonder that so many prominent Democrats are fantasizing about clarity while nightmare scenarios dance in their heads.
About the writer
Walter Shapiro is Salon's Washington bureau chief. A complete listing of his articles is here.
Mike Madden is Salon's Washington correspondent. A complete listing of his articles is here.
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