The swing states of 2008

Maslin: One point about New Hampshire. You're talking about only four electoral votes. But as we've seen before, and certainly in 2000, four electoral votes could be everything. That's the one place where if John McCain has a second political home, it's in New Hampshire. It basically propelled his candidacy in 2000 against George Bush. It saved his candidacy in many ways this time. It's a place where he has terrific appeal to independent voters. I think, by the way, that Barack Obama also, even though he lost that primary, because Hillary Clinton brought people back to her in a way when she was being counted out, I do think he is a popular candidate there. And certainly, I'm not going to rule it out as a prospect for the Democrats. But if there's one place in the Northeast, which has trended very Democratic in recent years, where McCain could swing back and win four votes that have been Democratic, it is New Hampshire. It's a natural fit for him; they like him there. And John Kerry did better in New Hampshire last time than Al Gore did, largely because of a New England, Boston connection that doesn't exist this time. I think New Hampshire is a decent shot for McCain.

Douthat: One of the things people have been talking about recently is Georgia, where you have this interesting dynamic: On the one hand, Bob Barr, former Georgia representative, Republican turned Libertarian presidential candidate, is running reasonably strongly in the initial polls there, picking up 5 to 6 percent of the vote. On the other hand, Georgia has a very large African-American population. The Obama people are talking up the voter registration drives they're doing and there have been polls that show, with Barr factoring in, that state being very close. I'm pretty skeptical about it, only in the sense that when push comes to shove, even in Georgia, Bob Barr is not going to get 6 percent of the vote. He's going to get 1 to 2 percent of the vote and I don't think that's enough to tip that kind of state. Over the long run, Barr is not your ideal third-party candidate. He's not a sort of celebrity figure, he's not a terribly appealing figure. So I don't think that will be in play at the end, but it is an interesting potential dynamic.

Maslin: Kerry lost by 16 points in Georgia. If Barack Obama wins Georgia, he won't be worrying about the Electoral College on election night. It'll be a 400-vote Electoral College landslide.

Douthat: Which is possible. I don't think people should discount that possibility at this point.

Schaller: Andres, the Latino vote is growing in parts of the South but it's still pretty small. Is it enough, along with the Bob Barr factor and increased black turnout, to move a state like Georgia or only a state like Virginia?

Ramirez: I think Virginia is a much more likely state, especially because you have Jim Webb, who just won, and you have Mark Warner on the ballot. In Mark Warner's gubernatorial race in 2001, he did a phenomenal job of organizing and mobilizing a Latino constituency in Northern Virginia that was really put to use during his campaign. Obviously, he had the resources to organize them. But the fact that he's on the ballot again means Hispanics will play a much larger role in Virginia. And again, we need to recall, Virginia was one of the few states where Obama actually won the Hispanic vote during the primary. He's incredibly popular with that community there; it's increasingly getting more active. There's a significant African-American population in Virginia as well, and so I think with that combination of facts you have a trending state. You have Governor Kaine in there, you have Mark Warner on the ballot and you have Obama's appeal to the African-Americans and Hispanics. I think Virginia is one of the states that was red that will likely benefit Obama this election.

Maslin: I agree with that. But I think you also have the colossus of the Northern Virginia suburbs, which are growing year by year and are clearly a moderating [influence] on that state. And where Obama ran extremely well; remember he won by huge margins in Virginia and Maryland over Hillary Clinton in the primary. You can't always extrapolate primary results, but I think that was a hint of some real potential for this Democratic ticket, which may end up with a Virginian as vice president. I think McCain's going to fight back, though. Obviously there's a military component in the Tidewater area in the Southeast; parts of Virginia, the mountains and elsewhere, are still pretty strongly Republican. It's clearly a battleground; McCain will fight to the death there. It is the best chance in the South, leaving Florida aside -- which is not really a Southern state -- and I agree with the earlier comment about Florida, which we're not going to talk about much here, but there's clearly better prospects for Obama in Florida than some people give him credit for. But there's no question that Virginia is going to be a real close fight all the way.

Schaller: I'm wondering on Ohio and Michigan, two states that are very similar. They're usually one-two in terms of the economic deprivation numbers we've seen in recent years; they've really struggled as post-Rust Belt economies. And yet Ohio went for Bush twice. Michigan went for Kerry and Gore, and yet, it looks like McCain is extraordinarily competitive in Michigan. Is that just because of the fallout from the primary where Obama wasn't on the ballot there? Or is there something happening that's distinctly different in one or the other of those states that is potentially making Ohio more blue and Michigan more red?

Maslin: I'd be real wary of polls at this point, and I'm the pollster on this call. I just think it's way too early to draw too many conclusions from polls. The traditional order of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio has always been Ohio as the weakest state for the Democrats. The last time that was not true was with Jimmy Carter in 1976 and that's because Gerald Ford was from Michigan. So I'd be wary of thinking that Ohio is a better prospect for Obama than Michigan. I do think there has been some fallout because of the way the Democratic Party botched -- and I'm not blaming anyone in particular, just the overall net effect was to botch this Michigan primary horribly. And I think that's given an opportunity for McCain. Clearly, the one thing I've said before, I do think that Ohio is more problematic simply because of geography. I do think that white voters in southern Ohio are going to be, not just for racial reasons, but culture and class as well, are going to be tougher to win over for any Democrat, and certainly for Barack Obama, than their counterparts in the Upper Peninsula or similar demographic areas of Michigan. There is a slightly bigger African-American population in Michigan as well. At the end of the day, I still think Ohio is the tougher one, but there's no question that McCain and his campaign perceive an opportunity in Michigan and Pennsylvania. If they had to pick one of those two, they'd probably think that Michigan might be the better chance.

Douthat: One other dynamic that Paul just touched on a bit. There's a dynamic in the race that we haven't seen before and may not see again, which is the age dynamic and the extent to which Pennsylvania, for example, is one of the oldest states in the union. And to the extent that the race issue ends up mattering in this campaign, it's going to end up mattering, it seems like, to 40 and older, 50 and older, 60 and older voters. That's the demographic where you're more likely to see people who usually vote Democratic not being willing to vote for a black candidate for president. I don't think that's a particularly huge chunk of the electorate; it's a slice of a slice that will tip that way. But in so far as it matters, it will probably end up mattering in those Rust Belt states and that's an advantage for McCain, obviously.

Next page: "I don't want to overstate the not-voting-for-a-black-guy racial dynamic, but that obviously plays in as well there"