No peace for Obama on Israel

He's facing nervous Jewish voters in Florida, attacks by Joe Lieberman and smear tactics in a political war that threatens his campaign.

By Gregory Levey

Read more: Florida, Iran, Palestine, John McCain, Politics, Israel, Jerusalem, Joseph Lieberman, Middle East, News, American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Barack Obama, 2008 election, Salon stories by Gregory Levey

July 2, 2008 | In early June, the morning after he became the presumptive Democratic nominee, Barack Obama gave a speech focused squarely on the Middle East and Israel. While the timing was coincidental -- his appearance at the annual gathering of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee had been scheduled long before the primary race played out -- the speech was fitting, headed into the general election. U.S. dealings in the volatile region promise to remain at the center of the race, and the next presidency. On Israel in particular, Obama faces strategic challenges in his bid for the White House: He has had to combat long-running smear campaigns painting him as anti-Israel, while his Republican opponent, John McCain, has mobilized powerful conservative allies of Israel against him, including Senator Joe Lieberman.

"Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel," Obama told the AIPAC crowd on June 4, "and it must remain undivided." He aimed to show his unequivocal support for Israel, and his remarks were received enthusiastically by the approximately 7,000 attendees at the powerful lobbying group's event. But they also produced political blowback, including among Obama's own dovish supporters, demonstrating just how thorny of an issue America's relationship with Israel remains. Even the State Department sounded wary of Obama's comments on Jerusalem, with a spokesman stating that the matter must ultimately be left up to the two sides in the conflict to resolve. In an interview with CNN the day after the speech, Obama reframed the issue in softer terms; inevitably, this led to accusations of flip-flopping and insincerity.

Obama's views on Israel's security, and the intractable conflict with the Palestinians, have met with uncertainty among some potentially key groups of voters -- namely older Jewish Americans, as well as some Evangelical Christians and other foreign policy hard-liners. There are sizable Jewish populations in important swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio, where there are also significant numbers of Evangelical supporters of Israel. With about three-quarters of a million Jews, though, Florida is the crucible when it comes to Israel, assuming the state will once again see a close contest in 2008. It has the third largest Jewish population in the country, and politically important southern Florida has one of the highest concentrations of Jews anywhere outside of Israel -- many of them senior citizens. According to a recent report in the New York Times, half of the Jewish population in Broward County is over age 59, and half of the Jews in Palm Beach County are over 70.

The vast majority of American Jews don't cast their votes based on considerations for Israel. Historically, they vote mostly on domestic issues, and they vote consistently and overwhelmingly Democratic. Obama has the support of many younger Jewish voters, amid strong support from youth voters in general, around the country. It is widely believed in political circles, however, that older Jewish voters in particular can be influenced to vote on the Israel issue -- if they are motivated by fear or uncertainty.

It is especially with this demographic that there is a danger to Obama in the oft-repeated accusation that his thinking is murky on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and on Israel's security situation vis-à-vis Iran. The doubts among some voters seem to have risen at least in part from legitimate concerns: the young senator's relative lack of a voting record in the Senate on Israel-related matters, and what some see as a confusing message from Obama more broadly on the region. As one influential Middle East activist and Obama supporter recently told me, "Looking at it objectively, I'd say he sends mixed signals. One day he talks about meeting with Ahmadinejad. Then he recites the AIPAC talking points."

But perhaps far more important, the doubts about Obama have been expanded and exacerbated for dubious reasons -- including attacks by his political opponents, and smear campaigns that were first launched against Obama via the Internet many months ago.

Whatever the cause, the Obama campaign is taking the issue very seriously, as demonstrated by his AIPAC appearance and recent media efforts focused on highlighting his personal and policy views on Israel. (Hillary Clinton's own comments before AIPAC the same day also reflected the issue's importance; she had yet to concede the race, but her speech included her first powerful gesture of support for Obama as the presumptive nominee: "I know Senator Obama will be a good friend to Israel," she said emphatically, to a constituency that has long viewed her as a steadfast ally.) In late June, the Obama campaign announced an upcoming trip abroad that will include a visit to Israel.

Representatives of AIPAC have affirmed repeatedly that they view Obama as a staunch friend of Israel, and that they would be comfortable with either him or John McCain as president.

Jeff Ballabon, a political strategist known as the architect of the 2004 Bush campaign's outreach to orthodox Jews, describes an intriguing strategic battle taking shape. According to Ballabon, because McCain's support from Evangelicals and the traditional conservative base of the Republican Party remains weak, McCain will have to use Israel to rally this crucial demographic in key battlegrounds like Florida. But if influential Jewish groups such as AIPAC continue to give their blessing to Obama, he says, Evangelicals and other worried supporters of Israel may take that as a sign that they don't need to back McCain.

If this logic is sound, the McCain campaign either has to more aggressively paint Obama as detrimental to Israel's security, or at least foster an impression of uncertainty as to how Obama would handle the Middle East.

That's where Joe Lieberman comes in.

Next page: "The right wing never gets exhausted of smear campaigns. They would be falling down on their job if they did"