How big will Democratic gains be this fall?

Wasserman: I think the biggest problem for House Republicans is definitely retirement. It's an even bigger problem than finance for them, which is another disastrous situation. But put yourself in House Republican shoes for a minute. Just about every time you thought things couldn't get any worse this year, they have. First, take a look at the special elections, but the string of retirements kept getting worse as well. For example, in New York's 13th District, when Vito Fossella admitted to an extramarital affair that led to an illegitimate child, following a DUI, the replacement candidate died. This is sort of a tragic situation for Republicans. It puts an exclamation point on the woes that they have. If you look at the numbers in 1994 and 1996, I think it's instructive to the open-seat situation this year. Republicans scored actually a net gain of six seats in the 1996 election on open seats [since many Democrats retired after Republicans won control of the House in the 1994 election]. Of course, [the Republicans] lost seats overall, but it's sort of like [the Democrats] received a card on a board game that said, "Take six steps back before you can actually move forward." I think the same is true for House Republicans this year.

Sahd: That's exactly right. These open seats are the bane of the NRCC's existence at this point. Those seats are the ones everyone is watching this year. Of those couple dozen seats that are open, there are like 18 or 17 or 16 that are highly competitive or at least could be potentially competitive that Republicans actually may have to think about defending. With their finances the way they are, that's not the place they need to be. Now, they've recruited some good [candidates]. Despite their recruitment problems elsewhere, they've recruited some really good [candidates] in some of these open seats who have been able to raise a good amount of money, so that's going for them, but they still have to deal with these open seats, a lot of them in very marginal districts that aren't looking too good for them right now.

Rothenberg: I agree, certainly, when you look at some of these Republican open seats -- Tom Davis in Virginia, Fossella's seat in New York as well, Tom Reynolds' seat in upstate New York, the Renzi open seat in Arizona, the McCrery open seat in Louisiana -- the Republicans really struggled in a lot of these districts to recruit candidates. And when they finally, at the end of the recruiting process, got a candidate, they've gotten maybe a businessman who doesn't have an established political base, doesn't have demonstrated vote-getting ability: somebody, who in November may do well, may turn out to be a good candidate, but is a huge question mark, and in other places we don't even know if they've done that well. I think these open seats are a huge problem. It is still difficult to defeat an incumbent. Last year a number of incumbents went down because of the wave, and this year I expect some incumbents to be defeated. But it's hard to get a really big year without picking up seats in open seats. The Democrats have a terrific opportunity here. If you look on the other side of the ledger, in terms of Republican opportunities with open seats, there are some conservative districts that are going to be open this time that the fundamentals give Republicans a chance ... Bud Cramer's district in Alabama, for example. But they don't have the type of open-seat opportunities that the Democrats do.

Schaller:I was looking at the end-of-May cash on hand for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee, and it's 7 to 1. Now "cash on hand" can be misleading sometimes because you could have invested a lot of money, but I don't think the NRCC have raised nearly what the Democrats have raised. How much of the Democratic advantage is just pure cold hard cash?

Sahd: I think we've seen that in the list the DCCC put out about media buys: $35 million for 31 seats. Now a lot of that could have been showmanship, but it shows you ... Republicans have $7 million on hand right now, Democrats are going out and spending and reserving time, $35 million worth in 31 districts. That shows you the huge problems Republicans are going to have. Places like, these metropolitan districts in metropolitan areas, like Chris Shays' in Connecticut or Mark Kirk's in Illinois. Those places Republicans have spent a lot of money traditionally in holding those seats. That costs millions of dollars to successfully go in there and go on broadcast TV and stuff like that. I don't think they're going to be able to play as much in those districts in 2008 because of that short end they have on the financial side.

Wasserman: I think the money gap does two things fundamentally: There's no denying it's hurt Republican recruitment. It is intimidating for a Republican looking at running a race, especially if you're running in an open seat where candidates tend to be less well-defined. The second thing is it's enabled Democrats to target races outside a normal orbit of targets. Democrats are thinking big about the playing field, and one of the reasons that they can -- and have any shred of credibility when they discuss these raises -- is that they do have this financial edge that really gives them the megaphone. I think the question here is to what extent the Republican National Committee or Freedom's Watch or any other outside group is going to be able to bail out the NRCC à la Freddie Mac.

Schaller: Van Hollen and his people have said to me they're worried about Freedom's Watch. Is that just moaning and complaining, or is there a legitimate threat that Freedom's Watch could bring the Republicans some sort of parity with the outside money?

Wasserman: We've been hearing this for months now from the [Democrats] that Republican 527s are going to come in with big dollars, they'll come in late and change the nature of the game. I'm really skeptical of that. Look, there are 527s, they will participate, they will be a factor. Some of this what you're getting is professional paranoia from campaign strategists. It's their job to worry about what's around the next corner. There is certainly Republican money out there and 527s and Freedom's Watch and business groups. Some of the concern is legitimate, and some of it is an effort to raise more Democratic money. To try to manage expectations. I think the Democrats do have and will have a significant financial advantage.

I think one big question that we haven't mentioned is sometimes you get a slew of late-breaking races. Do the Democrats hold some of this money until October 15th to see whether in the final two, three weeks of the election cycle, there are five or six races that develop and that they hit? Do they splurge early and try to make these races? There are some tactical and strategic decisions that they have to make. But I think there's no doubt that the financial advantage is real and it may well be important, and the question is how much money the Republicans will raise in their outside groups. We just don't know the answer yet.

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