How big will Democratic gains be this fall?

Schaller: Now the 2008 election cycle has actually already given us three results, and the Democrats have won all three special elections, including in some tough districts -- two in the South and one in, amazingly enough, former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert's old seat. A lot of people want to extrapolate from that and say, "See, that's an early warning that it's going to be a great cycle for the Democrats." Are these really indicators of what's to come, or are they exceptions? Wasserman: I think a lot of the hype after the final special-election victory in Mississippi was simply hype. I think turnout in November as opposed to any special elections will be universal rather than unilateral. Keep in mind that special elections place a high emphasis on the quality of the candidate because it tends to be the only race on the ballot. In all three of these districts, Republicans emerged really battered and bruised from their primaries. Now do I think these losses are a big problem for Republicans? Yes. Because they've exposed a winning formula for Democrats, which is to run, in the case of the two Southern races, [candidates] who are socially conservative and are able to take advantage of splits in the Republican Party. I'll be very curious to see whether Democrats can hold on to those two seats in the South in November in an election in which they'll have to win plenty of votes from McCain supporters. Rothenberg: I think it's very dangerous to read into specials. The three together remind us that the public's mood still favors change and it's easier for Democrats to talk about change. All things being equal, the Democrat has the advantage of the change message. But I think in at least two of these cases you had very specific factors. In the Mississippi and Illinois specials, you had divided Republican parties, where the eventual Republican nominee had a lot of enemies within the party. And in Louisiana you had a disastrous Republican nominee who probably couldn't have gotten elected dogcatcher. So I think Democrats deserve to feel good about the results, use them for fundraising and other recruitment and mobilization, but I'd be careful about projecting from those three wins to the size of the Democratic win in November. Schaller: Let's go around the horn and each of you give me an answer to a three-part question. First, tell me one or two Democratic incumbents you think could lose. And then, two: one or two Republicans who you think are most likely to lose in November. And then finally, give me what I'm calling the J.D. Hayworth pick, which is an incumbent or two from either party who most of the country isn't paying attention to right now who might lose. And this could be a Democrat or a Republican. Someone who we wake up Wednesday after the election and can't believe he or she lost. Rothenberg: A Democrat who might lose, just to give you one: I think Nick Lampson in Texas' 22nd Congressional District, won on a mega, mega super-duper fluke. This is the former Tom DeLay open seat. And I think he'll have a hard time beating Pete Olson, who is a credible enough candidate. If you're a credible Republican and you still have a pulse and you don't have a long prison record, you probably ought to win in Texas 22. I think Don Cazayoux in Louisiana's 6th District, this is one of the three special election victories we just mentioned, I think he is now going to face a very credible Republican state legislator in a pretty good Republican district. And then if I was to pick a long-term Democratic candidate who should watch his or her behind, there are a number of freshmen I could mention too, but I'll just throw out a different kind of candidate, and that would be Paul Kanjorski in Pennsylvania's 11th in the northeastern part of the state. I'd worry. He's running against Lou Barletta, the mayor of Hazleton, big on anti-immigration issues. I was just up in that part of the state -- Kanjorski is doing some advertising already, an interesting indication that he acknowledges some vulnerability. Wasserman: I agree with Stu, I think Nick Lampson is the most endangered Democratic incumbent. He represents a district that is the most Republican out of the 30 seats the Democrats picked up in 2006 and that district is simply a political minefield for Democrats, especially one with as liberal a voting record as Nick Lampson, who served a much more Democratic district in the 1990s up until 2004. If I had to take a look at other Democrats who are vulnerable, I think you can make the case that Chris Carney, Nancy Boyda, Carol Shea-Porter, Steve Kagen, these are all Democrats who could face a really serious race. I think Democrats are going to have to lose a few seats this time. And those are all freshmen I mentioned.

If we had to look at a few Republican incumbents who are in real trouble, I tend to think that Tim Walberg in Michigan and Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado are really vulnerable incumbents. If we had say nine columns on our chart, as opposed to seven columns, I would consider Tim Walberg, or Marilyn Musgrave or Don Young, who faces a competitive primary, but if he were to make it through, is more vulnerable than guys like Steve Chabot or Chris Shays, but just the climate puts them all in serious danger. And then if I had to pick a Republican who people are not paying a lot of attention to right now but could be in trouble, I would tend to look at Republicans who have not had a tough race in a while and are really going to have to produce real campaigns to survive this year. And I'm not suggesting that people like Bill English or Sam Graves will lose this year, but I think they will face competitive races. Tom Feeney is another one.

Sahd: I'd agree with David on who he picks for Republicans. They would be more the ones who are causing themselves their own problems. In 2006, a lot of Republicans lost not because they sat in bad districts but because they were their own worst enemies. And the ones that prepared themselves, like Chris Shays or Mark Kirk, they hung on. This time, people like Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado and Tim Walberg in Michigan, those are the ones. Marilyn Musgrave is raising the money but she's also trying to change her profile and her image. I don't know how well that's going over. But in a district the Democrats claim is not as socially conservative as Musgrave is --and they have a great candidate, Betsy Markey -- I think this could be the year Musgrave loses in a year where Democrats and Barack Obama are going to be heavily targeting Colorado.

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