How Obama can be the un-Kerry in Denver

Cohen: I have to disagree a little bit there. There's no question that for McCain to be successful he has to create enough fear in people's minds about the Obama presidency. But we're talking about an election in which 75 percent, 80 percent of the country thinks we're on the wrong track, in which change is really the dominant issue, change and obviously the economy, so it seems to me that just to present Obama as this scary, other exotic figure will be effective with a certain percent of the population but I'm not so sure it's going to work so well with swing voters. I think they're going to want to hear something from McCain that's a little more positive than just the other guy is really bad. People always talk about Bush in '88 with Dukakis or Kerry in '04, but those were not really change elections.

To me, the best analogy is really '92 with Bill Clinton, who, in many ways, was a more flawed candidate than Barack Obama. Certainly, on personal issues. And if you remember that year's Republican convention, the campaign was really an attack on Clinton's inexperience, and how he didn't have proper family values and what have you, and that approach didn't work because people were very worried about the direction of the country. If McCain people think they can run a campaign just on attacking Obama, I think they're sadly mistaken. I think they're going to lose. I think they have to present some kind of positive message and I have not heard it yet from McCain.

Lehane: They're all really good and smart points and I absolutely hope that you're right. To me, and again, history can always help us a little bit, the question is, is this race 1980 or is this race 1988? To me it's a lot closer to 1980, which makes me feel good as a Democrat. The party out of power ultimately benefits from the macro trends, with people wanting change, once folks become comfortable with the candidate, in this case Obama, in 1980 the Republicans with Reagan. That's why I said earlier it's ultimately a very hard challenge for McCain to raise those questions at the end of the day, assuming Obama does a good job at the convention.

Having said that, there clearly are issues out there and there's a segment of the electorate, particularly white working-class voters and older women, those are the voters McCain has to get if he's somehow going to pull out an election that he should not win, and those folks are the type that historically do respond to negative messages. They're the type who respond to serious questions being raised if those questions are not beat back and those doubts are put in place. That's why I think at the end of the day, that's really the only hope that McCain has. I don't think it's much of a hope for the reasons we've all discussed, but that's why I do think they're going to have a convention created to try to push that narrative.

Schaller: That brings us to our final question. For each candidate, what's one thing he should do and one thing he shouldn't do? Lehane: The big do for Obama is really to lay out that vision, that thematic about where he's going to take the country. His equivalent of what Clinton did in '92 with putting people first. I think if he does that he really puts himself in a position of having a really strong convention and getting the big bounce and going forward into the fall in a very strong position. I think the don't, the one I think they can control, is making sure the convention does not become a convention in which there are all types of messages but not something that adds up into that larger vision. Kamarck: I think for McCain he simply has to show the country that he's not a dotty old man and that he is significantly different from George Bush. That they can trust him. And I think that if he does those two things, he may very well win this election. It's a question of being young and vigorous enough to lead and being different enough from George Bush that people can feel comfortable going with him and having their desire for change fulfilled.

I think with Obama it's a little bit more difficult. I think Obama has to show that his story is in fact an American story, and that's why you see so many of these Republican attacks on him have very little to do race and so much to do with foreignness. He has to craft his story very carefully as an American story and make sure that that is conveyed at every turn in this convention because I think he is the more adept, younger, energetic candidate. But he needs to get over that feeling that he's not quite American before the swing voters that Chris is referring to are comfortable going to him. I, by the way, am skeptical that if Hillary Clinton were on the ticket she could shore up those swing voters. They went to her in the primaries against Obama, but I have a deep suspicion that were she the nominee, it would be some of the same groups that would basically be arguing that she can't do it, oh she's a woman, et cetera. I'm not sure she actually delivers that vote, even though she won it in a contest against Obama.

Cohen: For McCain, I don't even know where to start. There's so much that he needs to do in his speech and in this convention. I think Elaine summed it up nicely: show that he's not an old man and show that he's different from George Bush. And good luck with that. That's going to be the objective, but I'm not sure how he does it. I think, as I said before, his major to-do is to lay out a positive message for his campaign, and to do it in such a way that separates him from George Bush. I'm not sure how that happens, but that's probably his top to-do.

As far as a don't, I'll act like a TV-addled American and say that he needs to avoid doing those little things he does that creep people out. He needs to not smile so much, not say "my friends" every other line. He needs to find a way to make himself seem more accessible.

And then for Obama, he will do all the things Chris suggested. He will give a great speech because he's a great orator, he'll have a great convention. If I was giving one piece of advice to Obama, I would almost say he needs to kind of relax a little bit and have some fun. He can come across as being a little bit more, I'll use Mark Penn's word, more human. I think he can talk about how his grandfather served in World War II and his grandmother raised him and his mother obviously. All those things that make him seem more accessible and approachable. I think also he needs to be a little looser frankly. And not sort of present himself with his chin tilted up and presenting himself as this sort of great Victorian figure.

Schaller: I'd like to thank all of our participants.