Will Arizona leave John McCain blue?

With the economy in the tank, even conservative parts of the state could be blue this fall. Freshman Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell, who worked closely with McCain when Mitchell was mayor of Tempe and McCain represented the area in the House and Senate, may escape serious danger even though Republicans vastly outnumber Democrats in his district; the GOP nominated a relatively unknown conservative, David Schweikert, to run against him after a divisive primary. National Republicans seem to be staying out of the way of another first-term Democrat, Gabrielle Giffords, in southern Arizona, though she was initially one of their major targets.

In the state's sprawling 1st Congressional District, which Democrats have only controlled for two years out of the last 50, Democratic former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is favored to win a House seat left open by the retirement (amid a corruption scandal) of the Republican incumbent, Rick Renzi. A native of the rural district, Kirkpatrick is playing up her ties to the area and her support for small-town Arizona in her race against Republican Sydney Hay, a rabidly conservative lobbyist for the mining industry who has worked for losing presidential campaigns for Alan Keyes, Pat Robertson and Duncan Hunter.

Hay wasn't the first (or even second) choice of most national Republicans for the campaign, but they couldn't recruit any bigger names to get in, and the national party has already basically pulled out of the district. During a debate at the Yavapai County Fair in Prescott Valley, Ariz., on Saturday, you would have barely known from listening to Hay or Kirkpatrick (and an independent candidate, Brent Maupin) that the presidential race was even going on. Yavapai County is ranching country, and conservative enough that the local Democrats didn't even bother setting up a booth at the fair (or if they did, it was hidden away somewhere no one could find it). But Hay brought up McCain only in passing, and not by name; she emphasized her "pro-family" conservative agenda and stuck up for opening Social Security to private accounts. Kirkpatrick hammered away at her message that the war in Iraq is costing too much money and the government isn't looking out for the little guy. "I'm angry about the situation, and I'm putting my anger into action," she said. (Like both McCain and Obama these days, Kirkpatrick says she wants to change Washington.)

Even staunch McCain supporters at the fair said that wouldn't necessarily translate into support for the GOP in other races. "We like to vote for who best represents what we feel is necessary" for the country, said Becky Dill, a registered Republican from Chino Valley, Ariz., with a McCain-Palin button pinned to her purse. She was open to voting for Democrats in local races (including the House contest), which she said had nothing to do with the presidential race. Meanwhile, Arizonans who don't like McCain seem even more motivated to get involved in politics this fall in order to show him up. "For many years, I had a lot of admiration and respect for John McCain," said Craig Mathews, a retired postal worker from Chino Valley. "I saw a real change in him before the 2004 election, when he turned around and endorsed George Bush ... He's willing to do anything to get elected."

The area's Republican state Rep. Lucy Mason, working the GOP booth at the county fair, told me she wouldn't be surprised at all if Kirkpatrick -- whom she worked with frequently in the Legislature on rural issues -- won the House seat. She also sounded, ruefully, like she thought Democrats might take over the statehouse, in part because Republicans couldn't wrangle up enough good candidates. "We lost nine seats just from term limits this last time, and it's very, very difficult to find people to run," she said. Republicans nominated conservative candidates in some legislative districts near Phoenix where the voters tend to be more moderate, and could suffer as a result. Democrats are two seats away from parity in the 30-seat Senate, three seats away in the 60-seat House. In 2006, they picked up six seats in the House and one in the Senate.

What Arizona may become this fall, even if McCain wins its 10 electoral votes easily, is ammunition for Democrats who believe the party needs to push hard on the so-called 50-state strategy. If it tips blue in the down-ballot races even with a native son at the top of the Republican ticket, it's hard to argue with the idea that it's worth looking for every vote you can find. Of course, it could also go down as the great "if only" of the 2008 election. As Obama scrambles to find 270 electoral votes, it's hard not to wonder how much easier his job might have been if McCain had started his political career somewhere else.