We'll start with the National League, and because these things always go east to west, we'll start with the Western Division. In order of finish:
N.L. WEST
1. San Francisco Giants: The Giants won't be that different from the team that won 90 games last year. Their lineup should be a little better with the addition of Reggie Sanders in the middle and Tsuyoshi Shinjo, not an ideal leadoff hitter but at least one with a pulse, at the top. Their starting rotation will be a little better with Jason Schmidt for a whole year. Their bullpen will still be very good. They're a little banged up coming north, what with Barry Bonds nursing a hamstring and Schmidt a sore groin muscle and Jeff Kent out with that wrist he broke while simultaneously riding his motorcycle and washing his truck, or something. But none of the injuries appear to be long-term threats, and the Giants should win the West.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks: This is the same team that won the World Series last year. That's the problem. That was an old team that managed to stay healthy. Now they're all a year older. They still have that dominant pitching duo, Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson, but basically, this was a team for which everything went right last year, and you can't count on that happening twice in a row. Matt Williams, who must be near the end now, was the first casualty, with a broken leg. Backups Erubiel Durazo, who's -- whoops -- 27, and Greg Colbrunn, who's 32, have joined him on the disabled list. Still, the wild card is a possibility, and we saw last year that if the Diamondbacks can get to the postseason, those two great starters make them dangerous. We also saw last year how wrong I can be by predicting the Diamondbacks will suffer from a run of injuries.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: If everything goes right, the Dodgers can contend. The first thing that has to go right is Kevin Brown and Andy Ashby, their talented but fragile top two starters, have to stay healthy. The next is that someone has to emerge as a closer. And then a leadoff hitter. And then Eric Karros and Adrian Beltre have to have big comeback years. And then sometimes-effective Hideo Nomo and Odalis Perez and untested Japanese import Kazuhisa Ishii have to come through. Could happen. Probably won't. But chalk them up as another possible wild card team.
4. San Diego Padres: Listen very carefully, Padres fans. In a few years, you'll have a new stadium, and then (maybe) everything will be OK. In the meantime your best pitcher is 12-game winner Kevin Jarvis, and your two big sluggers, Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin, are saying all the right things, but not very convincingly, about being moved from their positions to accommodate shiny new rookie third baseman Sean Burroughs, who had better show some Little League World Series style results in a hurry or it could get ugly in a way that will have you longing for the days of Nate Colbert and Ollie Brown.
5. Colorado Rockies: How do you win playing in that crazy ballpark? I don't know. The Rockies don't know either.
N.L. CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals: For all the gnashing of teeth and rending of garments in St. Louis, the Cards are a much better team with Tino Martinez having replaced Mark McGwire. That's the only real difference between last year's wild card team and this one, along with the addition of an actual closer, Jason Insringhausen. The best starting staff in the league, maybe in all of baseball, combined with the pop provided by J.D. Drew, Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds, should be plenty to bring the Cardinals the Central Division crown, especially if they can avoid the first-half malaise that held their win total to 93 last year.
2. Houston Astros: There's nothing wrong with the Astros, who beat St. Louis on the last day of the regular season for the division title last year before flopping in the playoffs again, costing manager Larry Dierker his job. Houston will be good again. But while the Cardinals should be slightly better, the Astros lost Moises Alou, and his replacement, poor-fielding slugger Daryle Ward, doesn't figure to be his equal. Playing in the same division as the woeful Pirates, Brewers and Reds will give the Astros plenty of chances to stockpile wins and take the wild card in a tight race over some combination of Chicago, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Florida, Arizona and Los Angeles, not necessarily in that order.
3. Chicago Cubs: You know the Cubs only finished five games out last year? Except for their incredible right fielder, there's nothing spectacular about this team, but the Cubs can pitch some -- quite a bit if Jon Lieber can repeat his 2001 and Kerry Wood can ever stay healthy for a whole year -- they can hit some, especially with the addition of Alou, and they have a pretty smart manager in Don Baylor, whose relative success in Colorado is looking better and better every year. Newly acquired Antonio Alfonseca, if healthy after back surgery, as he appears to be, will make up for the loss of injured closer Tom Gordon. Can the Cubs win the Central? I don't think so. Can they contend for the wild card? See the above entry, and the next one.
4-6. Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds: I can't hold my nose long enough to type three separate entries for these teams. They're all capable of losing 100 games. Maybe one of them will surprise everybody with a 2001 Minnesota Twins-like resurgence, but, you know, probably not. If I had to pick one of the three to do it, I'd pick the Pirates, because they're young and hungry and they have Brian Giles and they just don't seem to be quite as screwed up as the Brewers and, especially, the Reds. Geez, the Reds. Their big pickup this off-season was outfielder Juan Encarnacion, who was run out of Detroit on a rail. Detroit! For the record, I'm picking these turkeys in the above order, and I'm not saying the Pirates are going to have a Twins-like resurgence.
N.L. EAST
1. New York Mets: The Mets certainly had a busy little off-season, didn't they? They went out and got Roberto Alomar, Mo Vaughn, Jeromy Burnitz, Pedro Astacio and Shawn Estes, among others. They'll have a scary lineup, solid pitching and, you know what? They're going to win the East. If Bobby Valentine could win the pennant with that bunch he had in 2000, he can win with this bunch, barring a rash of injuries, which, with a veteran club, is a real possibility.
2. Atlanta Braves: Everywhere he goes, Gary Sheffield has a year or so of gruntlement before becoming disgruntled, so he should be a nice addition for the Braves this season before turning on them like last night's 12-pack in 2003. He's a better hitter than Brian Jordan, the man he was traded for -- heck, he's a better hitter than almost everybody -- but it's not like a day-for-night transformation. Jordan was fine. The Braves are another year older and still without quite enough pop. They'll contend for the wild card, but their run of division titles ends here unless the Mets all get hurt. Four words say all you need to know. "Starting tonight: Albie Lopez."
3. Philadelphia Phillies: The Phils have a good lineup, from second-year leadoff man Jimmy Rollins -- who'd practically be in the Hall of Fame by now if he played in New York -- through Scott Rolen and Bobby Abreu and, if he comes back successfully from a knee injury, Mike Lieberthal. They can hit, run, catch. The problem is the pitching. Jose Mesa had an amazing year as the closer in 2001, but even if he can repeat that as he turns 36, the Phillies don't have the starters to get to him. They played a bit over their heads last year to stay in the wild card chase for so long. Manager Larry Bowa seemed to get the best last year out of players who can't stand him. Two years is about the limit on that sort of thing.
4. Florida Marlins: Who knows how the off-season ownership fandango will affect this team, but trading starter Matt Clement to the Cubs for maybe slightly better starter Julian Tavarez -- and by the way throwing in closer Alfonseca -- was not exactly a sign that new owner Loria is in anything-to-win mode. Clement blasted the Marlins after the trade Wednesday: "You wouldn't think a team that's 29th in salary would be trimming payroll, but obviously that's their motive," he said. Loria, who has said the Marlins need a new stadium to be able to keep good young players, denies that he's sending a message with the trade, claiming it was a good baseball move. It was. For the Cubs.
5. Montreal Expos: Contending for the wild card is out of the question. Free Vladimir Guerrero! Someday, you know, we're going to miss the Montreal Expos.
The Cardinals' starting pitching and top-to-bottom strength, not to mention their not having to face the two-man buzz saw of Schilling and Johnson in the playoffs, will take them to their first World Series since 1987.
Next page: The American League