EASTERN CONFERENCE
Southeast Division
Miami Heat: I'm not a huge fan of the big trade that brought Antoine Walker, Jason Williams and James Posey to Miami, and I think Pat Riley is fixing to force coach Stan Van Gundy out and return to the bench. Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade are a championship-level duo, but the meter's running on Shaq. If the Heat are going to break through, they'd better get to it, but I don't know that they're quite there.
Washington Wizards: They'll miss Larry Hughes, who helped lead them to their first playoff appearance in eight years, but they signed former Sonic Daniels, who'll make up for some of that production. The Wizards aren't strong enough up front to contend for the title, but they can make the playoffs and win a series.
Orlando Magic: The Magic have young guy Dwight Howard, old guy Grant Hill and in-between guy Steve Francis. And they're not very good.
Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks should put top pick Marvin Williams in the lineup and let him take his lumps. His learning curve figures to be the best thing about this season in Atlanta. He's the future, so might as well get to it.
Charlotte Bobcats: They're a couple of years away, but they seem to have an idea what they're doing. This year's draft picks, Tar Heels Raymond Felton and Sean May, seem to have been taken with at least one eye on the box office, but it'll still be interesting to see how they fare in the NBA.
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Central Division
Indiana Pacers: The Pacers looked like the best team in the East last year before the early-season brawl in Detroit blew their season to smithereens. Ron Artest is back, and that's huge. Everyone who's ever had a knucklehead for a boyfriend knows how you can wait around a long time for a knucklehead to change his ways, and Artest is a knucklehead. But he's saying the right things and making lovey-dovey with Larry Bird on the cover of magazines. If Artest can keep his suspensions down to a game or two at a time and the Pacers can stay healthy, they're good enough, deep enough and well-coached enough to win it all.
Cleveland Cavaliers: LeBron James' team has added slasher Larry Hughes and shooter Donyell Marshall, and with center Zydrunas Ilgauskas, there are a lot of ways these guys can score. The Cavs aren't deep, but their starting lineup is good enough to get them to the playoffs and win a series, maybe two.
Detroit Pistons: The defending conference champs lost their coach and chief distraction, Larry Brown. Other than that, this is the same team that went to the NBA Finals and lost to San Antonio. Flip Saunders is a good coach, but I'm suspicious of teams that stand pat.
Chicago Bulls: The Bulls had a nice run last year and made the playoffs for the first time since the Jordan era. They traded away Eddy Curry rather than deal with his heart condition, and it's hip to say they're going to take a step backward this year. But I like their lineup and think they have a chance to be just as good as they were last year, though 47 wins probably won't be good enough for second place again in this brutal division with an improved Cleveland and a brawl-free -- one assumes -- Indiana.
Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks took Andrew Bogut with the top pick, a move I'm not big on because I think he'll only be a good player, not a great one. But good is better than bad, right Michael Olowokandi? They also signed Bobby Simmons, traded for Jamaal Magloire and are expecting point guard T.J. Ford to be healthy, so if everything falls into place, the Bucks, a terrible disappointment, will also be much improved this year, meaning they'll be the best last-place team in the league.
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Atlantic Division
New Jersey Nets: A hip pick to have a rebound season, and why not. With a healthy Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson and a full season of the new, revitalized, hardworking Vince Carter, who was an absolute monster after the trade last year, the Nets should get to the playoffs on their fast break alone. They're not deep, but they're probably as good as they were in their conference championship years. Problem is, that's not good enough to win the conference championship anymore.
New York Knicks: If nothing else, they'll be interesting. Can Larry Brown and Stephon Marbury coexist? How about Brown and Isiah Thomas? Can Brown get Eddy Curry to play with maximum effort? Will Brown be maneuvering for the Miami job by Christmas? Brown alone probably gets this team, with 33 wins last year, to a flirtation with the .500 mark and a playoff spot, but if there's some kind of long-term plan at work here, it's escaping me.
Philadelphia 76ers: Allen Iverson was fantastic last year, carrying this team to the playoffs almost single-handedly. But he's 30, he's small and he takes a beating every night. He's a good candidate to decline in a hurry. Chris Webber has already declined, though he still could be a fine player if he'd adjust his game to the new reality of his gimpiness. All you really need to know about the 76ers is that Kyle Korver, a Steve Kerr-type bomber who should come off the bench for a few minutes a game, starts for them.
Boston Celtics: Danny Ainge's rebuilding project is in the sausage-making stage. It's going to turn out nicely, but I don't think you want to look right now. With a lot of young talent -- I'm a big Al Jefferson fan -- and no real point guard, the Celtics, the defending "division champs" after winning 45 games last year, are going to struggle. Grouchy Paul Pierce cheering up a little would increase his trade value, which would benefit both the Celts and him.
Toronto Raptors: The Charlotte Bobcats' best hope for not finishing 15th in the conference. Chris Bosh is a fine player. In a couple of years he'll escape Toronto and you'll get to see him on the TV.
Eastern Conference playoffs: Indiana, Miami, New Jersey, Cleveland, Detroit, Washington, Chicago, New York
Conference champion: Indiana
NBA Finals: Indiana over San Antonio
Previous column: Wellington Mara and revenue sharing
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About the writer
King Kaufman is a senior writer for Salon. Visit his column archive.
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