Faithful to Fidel

Venezuela's Hugo Chavez has the wallet and the will to keep Cuban socialism running after his friend and role model dies.

By Alexandra Starr

Read more: Fidel Castro, Cuba, Opinion

Photo by Andres Stapff / Reuters

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez and Cuba's President Fidel Castro attend a rally July 21 in Córdoba, Argentina.

Aug. 8, 2006 | As Cuba inches toward a post-Fidel existence, international attention has focused on the ailing leader and his brother Raul. But it's worth keeping an eye on Fidel's staunchest ally. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is likely to pour millions of petrodollars into keeping Cuba socialist.

Chavez is an avowed foe of the Bush administration and the most influential leader in Latin America today. His deep pockets have bankrolled Cuba for the past half decade and shored up the Castro regime. The Venezuelan wants to keep Cuba's power structure intact -- and keep the United States out. "Chavez's message to Cuba is: 'I love you just as you are,'" says Daniel Erikson, director of Caribbean programs at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think tank. "That's music to the ears of Raul Castro."

Of course, what sounds good to Raul gives headaches to George Bush. But then, Chavez enjoys pitting himself against the current American government and specializes in gestures calculated to offend. When he received word of Fidel Castro's illness, the Venezuelan leader was in Hanoi, one stop in a global bash-the-U.S. tour. The previous day he had commended his hosts for their 1960s war with the United States, saying their battles against "imperialism" had set "a big example for the world." Chavez's arrival in Vietnam was preceded by a chummy visit with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whom he called a "brother and trenchmate." In 2000, Chavez became the first democratically elected head of state to visit Saddam Hussein since the Gulf War. He recently announced he'd like to pay North Korea a visit, too.

Why the urge to stick his finger in W's eye? Chavez has always been a leftist, which guarantees a sticky relationship with the Bush administration. Things didn't really get ugly, however, till 2002, when the Bushies broke open the champagne a bit prematurely after a coup briefly deposed Chavez from the presidency. On his return to power, the Venezuelan stepped up his attacks against the U.S. president, whom he derides as "Mr. Danger."

Chavez has also condemned capitalism as "the road to hell" -- although he hasn't completely eschewed market economics. He does, after all, still sell petroleum to the United States (Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves outside the Middle East). But Chavez has taken advantage of skyrocketing oil prices to try out some unusual cash-free arrangements. For example, he and Argentine President Nestor Kirchner, a fellow leftist, agreed last year to barter oil in return for Argentine shipbuilding expertise and farm machinery.

The deals are part of Chavez's larger petrodollar diplomacy, which leverages Venezuela's oil wealth to expand his influence in Latin America and help like-minded politicians win elective office. No country has profited more from Chavez's largess than Cuba. He provides the island with 100,000 barrels of oil and refined petroleum products a day. That subsidy will translate into $2 billion this year, according to analysts at the Cuban Transition Project at the University of Miami. The oil shipments not only meet Cuba's immediate requirements but have also provided a surplus that Castro has sold on the open market, generating the hard cash the island economy desperately needs.

Venezuela's generosity, plus increasing investment from countries like China and Spain, enabled Castro to dial back the economic liberalization measures he put in place in the 1990s after the fall of his former sugar daddy, the Soviet Union. And the frenzy is gone from Cuba's desperate post-Soviet pursuit of tourist cash. When the Bush administration imposed tougher economic sanctions on Cuba two years ago, Castro could basically ignore the pressure. He reasserted his authority over the island and laid the groundwork for the posthumous continuation of his regime. In 2002, for example, Castro spearheaded a petition drive to change the Cuban constitution to declare the socialist revolution "untouchable." He also purged pro-reform ministers from the government.

Next page: Chavez may want to stay in power till 2031