How will Barack Obama get to 270?

IV. Déjà vu Florida -- 27 votes

It would be nice for Democrats to right the wrong of 2000, to see political justice finally prevail, to gain vengeance and the White House in one fell swoop. And certainly it is improbable at best to envision a scenario where a Republican defeat in the Sunshine State could be overcome, no matter how large their blue-collar opportunity in the industrial belt might be. But to quote George H.W. Bush -- or at least Dana Carvey -- "nah gonna happen." To begin with, Democrats have been slipping here since 1996. Florida voted Democratic exactly at the national average in 1996, a tad (or is it a "chad") worse for Gore in 2000, and more than a point worse for Kerry. Hardly earth-shattering, but still a trend. Then there is the demographic problem. The state is not as old as people think but it's more elderly than most. Clearly Obama's worst primary difficulties have come among seniors. Then there is the Jewish problem -- and while it is still too early to proclaim a major hurdle for Obama to clear, obviously the GOP thinks they can exploit his background among Jews. Then there is the Hispanic problem -- a lot of them are Cubans and they still vote Republican. All in all, it's a swing state where Hillary Clinton could well have performed better than Obama.

And if all that were not enough, then there is whatever detritus has been left by the primary snafu. Perhaps a compromise will be reached, and feelings smoothed over, once Obama has secured enough delegates to win the nomination. Lingering problems in Appalachia and elsewhere among working-class white voters may force Obama and Co. back into Florida in a major way this fall, but it appears to be a tougher coconut to crack than, say, Pennsylvania or Michigan.

Ohio -- 20 votes

The Republican Holy Grail since Nixon's day. The supreme focus of John Kerry's campaign. The crucial general election victory for Jimmy Carter. After slipping in 2000, Democrats revived their chances in 2004, only to suffer a narrow, and fatal, loss. Surely with this economy, Bush's growing unpopularity and Obama's Midwest credentials and generational appeal Democrats can make up the missing 2 points? Perhaps, but it will be a war equal to that waged in Pennsylvania. The two states are quite similar, yet different in subtle but perhaps critical ways. The counties that adjoin the Ohio River are more Southern culturally than any similar area of Pennsylvania. They border, and resemble, West Virginia, where Obama was just crushed by Clinton. Cincinnati and Columbus are far more conservative cities than Pittsburgh or Philadelphia. The Cleveland suburbs -- while in some ways more gritty than their Philly counterparts -- are also a bit less sophisticated and perhaps less taken with the latte-ish phenomenon of Obama. Could choosing Ohio's popular Democratic governor as his running mate be Obama's answer? (Ted Strickland, conveniently, hails from Ohio's Appalachian southeast.) It may be the only way to prevail here in a close race.

V. Two final quirks

These last two states will appear on everyone's targeted list. They each featured razor-thin margins in both 2000 and 2004. Yet it wouldn't surprise me to see either or both veer off and be decided by a more substantial margin this time.

New Hampshire -- 4 votes

The Democratic trend line has been decidedly up here. The state ranked near last in Democratic performance in 1988, 33rd in 1992, but then roughly 20th ever since. Increasingly suburban, full of Boston transplants, it's got plenty of bedroom voters and a boatload of independents. It is also a Northern state with almost no African-American population, thus making Obama's job of winning the white vote much easier. And yet it is in many ways John McCain's second home. New Hampshire propelled his campaign forward in 2000 and rescued him from near-oblivion this time. He is the GOP nominee because of New Hampshire. If there is to be any Northeastern defection from a solid blue front, it will happen here.

Wisconsin -- 10 votes

How did it happen? Why was this state the one place where Barack broke through with everybody? Sure he won the campuses, and the Madison liberals, and African-Americans in Milwaukee. But he also won -- and often by stunning margins -- in blue-collar locales such as Green Bay, Sheboygan, Appleton and Oshkosh. Was it just one bad week for Hillary? She came into the state late; she went negative with arguments (asking for a debate, alleging plagiarism) that backfired. Or was it the Chicago effect? We (I live in Madison) may root against the Bears and Cubs, but we're kind of struck by the notion that such a nearby neighbor could become president.

Whatever the cause of his primary blowout, I do believe Obama has a chance to vault Wisconsin out of the partisan cage that two heart-rending, battle royale outcomes (Gore and Kerry each won by fewer than 11,000 votes) have built. Dukakis won here, after all. The only caveat is a stark one. Of all the major metropolitan areas from St. Louis to New York, essentially the entire northeast quadrant of the country, the only place where Democrats have failed to make major gains at the presidential level over the past 20 years is Milwaukee. Those suburbs, particularly to the north and west, remain overwhelmingly Republican. If Obama can crack them to any degree he probably wins the state by several points.

VI. Victory, by the numbers

So which of these 17 states do I think Obama really is going to win? How does he reach 270? Taking all these demographics and long-term trends into account, and then whipping out the dartboard, yields the following assessment:

States that strongly favor Obama ("strongly" in the context of close states, that is): Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington. That's 43 electoral votes. Add that to the safe blue 157 votes in 11 states and D.C. and Obama is at 200. States that slightly favor Obama: Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Another 55 votes. He's now at 255 States that strongly favor McCain: Florida, North Carolina. Their 42 electoral votes are probably going to the Republicans. States that slightly favor McCain: Colorado, 9 votes; Missouri, 11 votes; and Virginia, 13 votes. Obama's chances are better here. Pure toss-ups: Nevada, 5 votes; New Hampshire, 4 votes; New Mexico, 5 votes; and Ohio, 20 votes.

Clearly, and I'm being cautious, I think it's going to be a close race. If Obama wins the 255 votes in the states where he's favored, then to get to 270 he needs to choose from the following menu: 1) Win Ohio, which takes him to 275; 2) win in the West -- Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, for 274; 3) win the three N's (Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire) for 269, plus one other state; or 4) win two of the three N's and either Colorado or Virginia.

The bottom line is that 270 is achievable, provided the Democratic ticket keeps all of these 17 states in play as long as possible. And it looks like it can. Obama has the money to fight in the truly purple states and force his opponent to defend some of the redder ones. For the moment, McCain doesn't have the money to respond in kind. Obama can stretch McCain's scarcer resources. He can also improve the Democratic Party's odds of breaking through and winning its first Electoral College majority in a dozen years.