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The GOP's Latino strategy
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Jan. 14, 2000 | SAN JOSE --
That's the sales pitch Tarrance gave to the Republican National Committee leadership, which is gathered in San Jose, Calif., for its annual winter meetings through Saturday. If the pitch sounds revolutionary, it is. Whether it will sell is another matter entirely. But Tarrance has the blessing and endorsement of presidential front-runner George W. Bush and RNC Chairman Jim Nicholson. "The thinking is very much like it was in the South in the '60s," Tarrance said. "It's this whole idea that Phil Gramm and others eventually came around to, that 'I didn't leave the Democratic Party, the Party left me.' We think there is a similar message that may cause that reaction among Hispanics."
The focus makes demographic sense. Latinos are the nation's fastest growing ethnic group: There are currently 31.5 million Latinos in the United States, and the number is expected to skyrocket, to 96.5 million by 2050. Some estimate that Hispanics will make up 25 percent of the entire U.S. population by 2025, and a plurality of California's population. A new U.S. Census Bureau report released Wednesday revealed that Hispanics will replace African-Americans as the nation's largest minority group by 2005. That year, Hispanics will make up 13.3 percent of the national population, compared to 13.1 for blacks. Latinos already outnumber blacks in California and Texas. The political clout of Latinos, like that of African-Americans, is reduced by the fact that the group tends to vote less regularly than whites. But that may be changing. In 1990, Latinos made up 7 percent of the voting population in California. By 1998, they were 14 percent. Nationwide, the rise in Latino voting is mirroring the explosive population boom: An estimated 4.2 million Latinos went to the polls in 1992, according to numbers from the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute. In the upcoming presidential election, 5.5 million Latinos are expected to vote, according to their projections. RNC communications director Clifford May says Tarrance's appeal makes sense for the GOP, and for Hispanics. Democrats, he said, are "old guard. The Democratic Party is the party of the poor, oppressed and those who want to be oppressed." But the buzz about this "new Latino strategy" also calls attention to the reality that, on the whole, American Hispanics remain overwhelmingly Democratic. Tarrance is on a mission to change that. He said that after the 1994 and '98 election cycles, his party is ready to hear what he has to say about the importance of the Hispanic vote to Republicans. In 1998, for example, Republican gubernatorial nominee Dan Lungren received only 19 percent of California's Latino vote. Lungren was thumped at the polls, and brought down most of the state's Republican Party with him. U.S. Senate candidate Matt Fong was creamed by incumbent Barbara Boxer, and only two Republican incumbents were elected to statewide office. Meanwhile, in Texas Gov. George W. Bush coasted to an easy victory, taking anywhere from 40 to 50 percent of the state's Hispanic vote with him. Thanks in large part to Bush's wide coattails, all 28 statewide officers in Texas are now Republican. "This might make the Republican Party a very different party," Tarrance said. "For the first time, we're entering into coalition politics. You'd be surprised how many Republicans don't understand what the word coalition means."
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