The national panel of 700 Republican primary voters recruited by SpeakOut.com to watch the Des Moines GOP presidential debate on MSNBC closely mirrors Republican voters nationally in terms of their candidate preferences.
Going into the debate, 63 percent of the SpeakOut panel say they are now
planning to vote for George W. Bush in their state primary or caucus.
Immediately following the debate,
pre-registered members of the SpeakOut panel will be directed to a closed
Web site to complete a post-debate survey. It is expected that approximately half of the panel will complete the post-debate survey.
Examples of Recent Natl. Polls
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FOX |
AP |
Speakout |
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12/6/07 |
11/23/99 |
IA Panel |
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| George W. Bush |
65 |
60 |
George W. Bush |
63 |
|
| John McCain |
14 |
12 |
John McCain |
15 |
|
| Steve Forbes |
4 |
5 |
Steve Forbes |
4 |
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| Alan Keyes |
2 |
3 |
Alan Keyes |
5 |
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| Orrin Hatch |
2 |
1 |
Orrin Hatch |
1 |
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| Gary Bauer |
1 |
1 |
Gary Bauer |
2 |
|
| Other (vol.) |
1 |
6 |
Other/not vote R. primary |
4 |
|
| Undecided |
11 |
12 |
Undecided |
4 |
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Only 44 percent of the panel expect Bush to "win" debate
Bush's generally lackluster reviews from Manchester, Vt., and Phoenix appear to have lowered expectations for his performance Tuesday night in Des Moines.
While 63 percent of the panel members say they now plan to vote for Bush, only 44 percent say they expect Bush to "do the best job" in tonight's debate. By comparison, 21 percent are expecting master-debater Keyes to do the best job, although only 5 percent of the panel say they would now vote for him in the Republican primary.
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Regardless of who you now support, who will do best job in debate tonight? |
Pre-Debate Vote % |
|
| George W. Bush |
44 |
63 |
| John McCain |
17 |
15 |
| Steve Forbes |
3 |
4 |
| Alan Keyes |
21 |
5 |
| Orrin Hatch |
2 |
1 |
| Gary Bauer |
1 |
2 |
| Other cand./May not vote GOP |
|
4 |
| Undecided |
11 |
4 |
SpeakOut.com will use three techniques to collect reaction to the debate, all of which will be provided first for MSNBC exclusively, then released generally to the media.
First, in the days preceding the debate, voters were invited to state their candidate preferences at www.speakout.com or through links at feedback.msnbc.com. A sample of those respondents, determined by quotas on pre-debate candidate preferences, has been invited back to a restricted-access site to complete a post-debate survey.
Second, a large focus group of 30 registered Iowa voters will participate in a SpeakOut.com Real-Time Analyzer to measure their changing perceptions as they watch the debate live on MSNBC. Participants will use hand-held dial devices to record their opinions before, during and after the debate. Results from this group will be reported on MSNBC after the debate and available for later analysis at SpeakOut.com.
Third, all Internet users will be invited to visit www.speakout.com after the debate to share their opinions about the candidate's performance. The results of this open, informal survey will be compared to other polls conducted after the debate to test various applications of Internet activism.
About SpeakOut.com
Based in Washington, SpeakOut.com is a new, nonpartisan, Internet-activism Web portal whose primary mission is to enhance the democratic process by enabling citizens to make a direct impact on the decisions that affect their lives. When launched officially in January 2000, SpeakOut.com users will enjoy a wide variety of news and information content tailored to their interests and activism tools allowing aggregated messaging to a vast array of public officeholders, candidates, business leaders and news executives
Summary of Pre-Debate Panel Data (N=700 12/13/99)
MEN
WOMEN
TOTAL
Regardless of who you plan to support, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following:
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Steve Forbes |
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Al Gore |
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Orrin Hatch |
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Alan Keyes |
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John McCain |
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Ross Perot |
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Donald Trump |
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