King Kaufman's Sports Daily

NBA Finals: The Mavericks have too much speed, depth and, yes, Dirk for the Heat. Plus: New baseball stat update.

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June 7, 2006 | Dallas in six.

There. This business of soberly avoiding predictions, taking the high road, staying away from daily-columnist shtick: It gets old.

The NBA Finals start Thursday night in Dallas, and I'm picking the Mavericks over the Miami Heat, and yes I realize I'm the guy who said the Mavs can't win a championship with Dirk Nowitzki as their go-to player. Repeatedly.

Now I'm saying they can, and you should give this statement all the consideration you gave the earlier one.

Nowitzki has stepped up in a big way, and he's done it deep enough in these playoffs that I've become a believer. There was that worrisome ending to Game 6 in the San Antonio series last month, but then again there was that 50-point outburst in the pivotal Game 5 win over Phoenix last week.

If I were a Mavs fan I'd still hold my breath if the ball were in Nowitzki's hands at the buzzer with a Finals game on the line -- which is exactly where Dallas should put it in such a situation -- but Nowitzki is no longer the mentally soft jump shooter he's been for most of his career. Now he does whatever it takes, and usually it takes hard drives to the basket, hard work on the boards and leadership.

But the Mavs aren't all about Dirk Nowitzki, which is good because the Miami Heat are a damn good team.

A lot of fools doubted Pat Riley when he overhauled the roster after the Heat came within a Dwyane Wade injury of beating the Detroit Pistons and making the Finals last year. Now that Gary Payton, Antoine Walker and Jason Williams have helped the Heat get to within four wins of a championship, we can all laugh at the doubters.

I laugh right in the face of one every time I shave.

I've also been a doubter of Shaquille O'Neal, writing that he wasn't likely to keep up his high energy level through a tough seminightly series against the Pistons. Wrong. With Wade weakened by a virus, O'Neal, who was tremendous throughout the series, carried the Heat to a clinching victory in Game 6 Saturday.

But you know what? I'm saying it again. The Mavericks are not the Detroit Pistons -- you can't get this kind of analysis just anywhere, folks -- and neither are they the New Jersey Nets or Chicago Bulls, the Heat's victims in the first two rounds of the playoffs. You're back in the Western Conference now, Shaq.

Next page: The Mavs like to run, and they're too fast for Miami. Plus: New baseball stat update!