Even Aaron, who broke Ruth's record of 714 at the age of 40, didn't get halfway to the Bambino by his 30th birthday, though he only fell 15 short with 342. He hit 413 after the big 3-0.
Bonds' late-career surge is well-documented, in all senses of the word, and extreme. He's the only man with more than 500 homers after turning 30. His 509 home runs since then are just more than twice as many as the 253 he hit in his 20s. Even more extreme is the split for the equally tainted Rafael Palmeiro, who's 10th on the all-time list with 569, only 153 of them before he turned 30.
But I was surprised to find Aaron's split (342-413) was as dramatic as it was, even though I lived through his late-career home run surge. Babe Ruth was a pitcher early in his career, so I expected his lopsided 284-430 split, but I hadn't expected to find that Willie Mays, Sammy Sosa -- I might have thought of him, but it's closer than you'd think at 277-332 -- Mark McGwire, Reggie Jackson, Mike Schmidt, Willie McCovey and Ted Wiliams all hit more homers after their 30th birthday than before it. Williams lost a lot of home runs to World War II while in his 20s.
Sutcliffe made it sound like hitting more homers after age 30 than before is a breeze, which is what set me off. Saying all a guy has to do is something Bonds, Aaron, Ruth, Mays, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro, Jackson, Schmidt, McCovey and Williams did is a little silly. But Rodriguez belongs in that group, and Sutcliffe's point, which is that A-Rod's in great shape to break the record, was good.
Rodriguez's birthday is in July, so he's played about two-fifths of a season, around 60 games' worth, since he turned 32. And he has 518 homers. At about the same age, Griffey, just starting to slow down, had 462. Aaron had 418. Any way you slice it, A-Rod's in decent shape, though it won't be easy. If he averages 30 home runs a year he'll break Bonds' record when he's 40.
On the one hand, the last time Rodriguez failed to hit at least 35 was 1997. On the other, 30 home runs a year for eight years is a lot. I don't care who or how old you are.
Why am I poring over all this meaningless minutia? Hey, man, it's spring training. I've got to get in shape too.
Previous column: Goodbye, Brett Favre?
- - - - - - - - - - - -
About the writer
King Kaufman is a senior writer for Salon. You can e-mail him at king at salon dot com or visit his Facebook page.
Story finder (3 ways to search Salon)
Salon Directory (browse by topic)