For whom the subprime mortgage mess tolls: Republicans in swing states.

The Wall Street Journal has a nifty, freely accessible piece of forward-looking reporting tying together the housing crisis and the 2008 presidential election. One sentence pretty much says it all:

Six of the 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates in the country last month are considered by leaders of both parties to be swing states.

Among the star performers: No. 2 on the top 10 list: Florida; and No. 7: Ohio.

Housing-related news from Florida continues to astound. In Central Florida alone, more than 11,000 homeowners had already defaulted on their mortgages this year, just through August. If How the World Works recalls correctly, Central Florida turned out voters in droves for Bush in 2004.

A full-blooded recession in 2008 would of course be a disaster for Republicans, but even without wider turmoil, swing-state housing woes pose a tough electoral math problem for Republicans.

Dare we say it? It's the housing bust, stupid?