How to explain Monday's anxiety attack on Wall Street, with the Dow Industrials closing down 373 points?
Let us count the ways:
The next stage will be a run on thousands of highly leveraged hedge funds. After a brief lock-up period, investors in such funds can redeem their investments on a quarterly basis; thus a bank-like run on hedge funds is highly possible. Hundreds of smaller, younger funds that have taken excessive risks with high leverage and are poorly managed may collapse. A massive shake-out of the bloated hedge fund industry is likely in the next two years.
How the World Works isn't sure how many Wall Street traders read Roubini's column Monday morning, but his point about hedge funds is provocative. Some of the brave souls still making last ditch attempts to defend the front lines of deregulatory ideology have been claiming in recent weeks that unregulated hedge funds have withstood the credit crunch better than regulated entities. (For examples see David Brooks and Tyler Cowen.)
But hedge funds, in aggregate, have been losing money for two years, so they hardly offer a glowing bill of health for deregulation. They're just doing less badly, for now, than anyone else. And at this juncture in the crisis, one would be unwise to bet against Nouriel Roubini.
UPDATE: I originally reported that oil jumped $25 dollars a barrel before closing at $130. That was an intra-day high.