The creed goes like this: The senator from Illinois (who is just about to put the finishing touches on a victory over the senator originally from Illinois) will inspire record numbers of African-Americans, independents and voters under 30 to go to the polls this November, sweeping away all before him like Peter O'Toole riding into Aqaba.

The African-American part seems pretty solid. The number of black voters will grow, and Obama will outperform previous Democratic candidates among them, perhaps enough to help him by 2 percentage points or more in states such as Virginia and North Carolina and a crucial 1 point -- give or take -- in other battleground states like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Missouri.

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Bush's second term has witnessed the great unraveling of the Republican coalition. After nearly two generations of political dominance, the Republican coalition has rapidly disintegrated under the stress of Bush's failures and the Republicans' scandals and disgrace. The Democrats have the greatest possible opening in more than a generation -- potentially. They should pay strict attention to how Bush has swiftly undone Republican strengths as an object lesson.

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Pickens has now responded to Kerry's invitation, but not in the "bring it on" way you might expect of a man who's sure of his own righteousness. Pickens doesn't deny that he made the initial challenge, but now that Kerry has accepted, he apparently feels the need to add some conditions.

"In order to disprove the accuracy of the Swift Boat ads, I will ultimately need you to provide the following," he tells Kerry. "(1) The journal you maintained during your service in Vietnam, and (2) Your military record, specifically your service records for the years 1971-1978, and copies of all movies and tapes made during your service."

Oh, and one more thing. If Kerry "cannot prove anything in the Swift Boat ads to be untrue," he'll need to make a $1 million contribution himself to the Medal of Honor Foundation.

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At a recent gala dinner for the American Spectator, Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens, a major contributor to the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, apparently offered $1 million to anyone who could disprove any of the Swifties' claims about John Kerry's service in Vietnam.

In a letter sent to Pickens today, Kerry has accepted the challenge himself. "I welcome the opportunity to prove that you are a man of your word and that the so-called 'Swift Boat Veterans for Truth' lied," Kerry says in his letter. "While I am prepared to show they lied on allegation after allegation, you have generously offered to pay one million dollars for just one thing that can be proven false. I am prepared to prove the lie beyond any reasonable doubt."

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But the largest single voting bloc in the GOP is not ready for the coronation of a pro-choice candidate like Giuliani. A group of key Christian conservative leaders voted at a Sept. 29 meeting in Salt Lake City to consider supporting a socially conservative third-party candidate if Giuliani is the Republican nominee; the same group will meet in Washington on Saturday for further discussion of the third-party option. Conservative anger is real, at least for now. As longtime conservative activist Richard Viguerie, who was at the first meeting, told Salon, "If Giuliani is the nominee, it will be the end of the Republican Party. There's no way that conservatives are going to continue to play the role of mistress, and here's a man who's wrong on every single social issue." Viguerie predicts disaster for a Giuliani candidacy. "In a two-way race, I think he'd be hard-pressed to get 40 percent of the vote. In a three-way race, he won't come close."

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Rove's resignation marks a tacit recognition of the failure of his theory of political realignment, though hardly of its consequences. Trailing him out of the West Wing is the cloud of a subpoena from the Senate Judiciary Committee that seeks his testimony about his primary role in purging U.S. attorneys for partisan purposes. But even when Rove leaves government service at the end of August, Bush will extend the protective cover of executive privilege.

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"I'm going to stay out of both the primaries and the general election because I've got to work with everybody as mayor of the city of New York," declared Bloomberg, a Democrat turned nominal Republican and now independent who has been elected to two terms as Rudy Giuliani's successor. "And if I pick sides, the public may not feel that I'm representing them."

These seemingly laudable sentiments deserve a Bronx cheer because they collide with reality. As host of the 2004 GOP Convention, Bloomberg praised George W. Bush from the stage at Madison Square Garden for "leading the global war on terrorism." And Bloomberg's top political advisors make scant secret that they are currently plotting ways for him to enter the 2008 White House field as a problem-solving independent, socially liberal and fiscally responsible.

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Tonight was a sort of normal event, where your wife Elizabeth's cancer was very much in the background. Did you sense that as well?

I did. I think that's largely been true since the first week. The first week it was very intense. We were in New Hampshire yesterday and did similar events, and it was very much the same. Now Elizabeth gets a lot of attention and you could see the crowd gathered around...

I'm not saying that anyone didn't know.

They know. But I think people are still capable of feeling good feelings towards Elizabeth and at the same time focusing on the things that matter for the country. You notice I said that you could ask Elizabeth a question if you wanted to, and nobody had any questions.

Did you learn anything about yourself over the last two weeks, since the public announcement that Elizabeth's cancer had returned?

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During a "60 Minutes" interview Sunday night, Katie Couric kept hectoring John and Elizabeth Edwards about their stubbornness in the face of cancer. Again and again, without getting the response she wanted, Couric asked them why they hadn't yielded to the return of Elizabeth's illness and broadly hinted that they should have called off John's campaign for the presidency. Finally, almost in exasperation, Couric turned to Elizabeth and said bluntly, "Here you're staring at possible death..." Elizabeth interrupted Couric with this cut-to-the-chase response: "Aren't we all, though?"

Left unsaid was that Couric's husband had died from colon cancer in 1998 -- and the perky anchor kept appearing on the "Today" show till the last week of his life. Left unsaid was that legendary newsman Ed Bradley, who died of leukemia last year, was contributing to "60 Minutes" until the very end.

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MoveOn's longtime allies in the antiwar movement, however, look at the bill -- and MoveOn's support for it -- and see something very different. Groups who call for immediate withdrawal argue that MoveOn's position is a betrayal of their cause, and that Pelosi's bill merely continues the war while allowing Democrats to say they've done something to oppose it. Cindy Sheehan, the "peace mom" who favors immediate withdrawal, describes MoveOn as supporting "the slow-bleed strategy of the Democratic leadership." Gail Murphy, of the group CodePink, says, "MoveOn has taken a compromised position -- in fact I think they were involved behind the scenes in creating a compromised position." Other peace activists call MoveOn's e-mail poll of its membership a sham. If MoveOn's millions of members knew the full details of the bill, they would surely oppose it.

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At a remarkable and emotionally raw Thursday afternoon press conference, there was John Edwards -- husband, father and presidential candidate -- putting the best interpretation on the recurrence of his wife Elizabeth's cancer. "Many people in similar circumstances," he said, "have lived many years undergoing treatment."

In a media environment where counterfeit emotion often seems more convincing than genuine sentiment, this turning-point moment in Elizabeth Edwards' life and perhaps the 2008 campaign was the ultimate in reality TV -- and it had the added virtue of being true. During the opening moments of the press conference, it was difficult to watch Elizabeth Edwards as she seemingly fought to maintain her composure. But then her husband began talking about how "we've been married for 30 years" and a brave smile flickered across her face, soon followed by an actual grin.

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