2012 Elections
Deval Patrick: Obama’s canary in the coal mine?
If the Massachusetts governor loses this fall, will it be an omen for the president in 2012?
President Barack Obama and Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick It’s understandable why the Washington Post would write that Deval Patrick’s reelection campaign this fall is ”a test case” for Barack Obama’s in 2012.
After all, the two men attained sudden national prominence at roughly the same time a few years ago, each sounding the same themes of hope, change and unity and each activating large grass-roots armies. Obama was only the third African-American to win a Senate seat when he was elected in 2004, while Patrick in 2006 became only the second African-American in history to win a governorship. And the political trajectory of Obama’s first term as president (at least so far) matches up with Patrick’s: enormous expectations and high early approval ratings that quickly gave way to popular discontent and middling poll numbers.
Patrick, of course, is two years farther along than Obama, which means he’s facing the voters this fall. Hence, the “test case” theme that you can expect to hear a lot about this fall. As the Post noted today, “Many of the top strategists in Obama’s political circle are helping to orchestrate Patrick’s reelection campaign, and they are looking to his contest for clues to what might work for the president in 2012.” Or, as Democratic strategist Mary Ann Marsh put it to Politico a few months back, if Patrick loses, “many people would say, ‘This is the way to try to beat Barack Obama in 2012.’”
There’s a problem with this, though: Patrick is running in a midterm election year in which the political climate — thanks in no small part to the economy — is poisoned against his party. His example will only really be telling if a similar climate prevails in ’12.
This doesn’t mean that there aren’t plenty of non-national factors that have contributed to Patrick’s predicament. He’s shot himself in the foot several times. And governors are simply more liberated from national partisan tides than, say, senators. During the Gingrich/Bush era in Washington (1995-2009) voters in Massachusetts were supremely hostile to GOP candidates for federal office. In the first election after the ’94 GOP revolution, the state’s two Republican congressmen — Peter Blute and Peter Torkildsen — were voted out, and the Bay State hasn’t sent a Republican to the House since then. But in that same period, the state elected two Republican governors, Argeo “Paul” Cellucci and Mitt Romney. In other words, Patrick won’t just be a victim of the national climate if he loses in November.
Still, the national climate, particularly when it’s slanted so strongly against one party, does loom large in gubernatorial races. It’s no coincidence, for instance, that Romney’s 2002 win came in a Republican year — one that saw GOP governors elected in blue states like Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland and Hawaii. There were individual factors in all of those races, yes, but the national mood was key to making swing voters in those states receptive to the GOP candidates — and putting them over the top. Similarly, it’s no coincidence that the record-shattering 71 percent that Republican William Weld posted in his 1994 gubernatorial reelection came in the year of the GOP revolution. Weld would have won in any year, yes, but not necessarily by that margin. With swing voters, even in blue states like Massachusetts, far more receptive to voting for Republican candidates than they’ve been in a long time this year, the national climate could swing numerous close gubernatorial contests — like Massachusetts’ — to the GOP.
But the idea that that means much for ’12 is pretty hard to swallow. It’s worth remembering that 15 states that elected Republican governors in 1994 ended up voting for Bill Clinton in 1996. If Patrick loses a close race this fall, it will be possible to connect the outcome to voters’ frustration with Obama and the Democrats, which is driven by the economy. But all that will tell us about ’12 is what we’ve known all along: that if the economy is still weak then, Obama will be in trouble.
Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki More Steve Kornacki.
Monday link dump: Keynesian kings & socialist queens
North Korea joins Twitter, reasonable Republicans find a doomed 2012 candidate, and the history of assimilation
- Every now and then, New York Post reporter Aaron Klein “reports” that Hamas “supports” or “endorses” Democrats or liberal things. He did that today with the Park51 project.
- Former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson is Conor Friedersdorf’s favorite Republican who stands no chance of winning in 2012.
- North Korea is on Twitter!
- Here are some great music videos about politics, and the end times.
- Yeah, so, Ross Douthat’s column about assimilation? It was nonsense, as a historian writes at Reason.
- Lewis Lapham’s very old-media media diet.
Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene More Alex Pareene.
“Big John” Cornyn: Mosque issue will hurt Obama
Junior Texas senator predicts that the President's tolerance stance will be used by Republicans in 2010 elections
WASHINGTON (AP) — A Republican senator is suggesting there could be political fallout from President Barack Obama’s remarks about building a mosque near the site of the Sept. 11 attacks in New York City.
Texas Sen. John Cornyn (KOHR’-nihn) says Obama is “disconnected from mainstream America” and that voters this fall will “render their verdict.” Cornyn leads the GOP’s Senate campaign committee.
Obama has said that religious freedom allows the mosque to be built. But he says he’s not commenting on “the wisdom” of building a mosque two blocks from ground zero.
Democratic Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island says the economy will remain the dominant election issue.
The senators appeared on “Fox News Sunday.”
Who’s funding Newt Gingrich?
Oil companies, coal companies and real estate barons shell out big dollars for Gingrich's political committee
Newt Gingrich Newt Gingrich’s ex-wife told Esquire that the former speaker cares more about getting rich than running for president. So we decided to take a closer look at who is funding Gingrich’s primary political committee, a 527 group called American Solutions for Winning the Future. A significant chunk of its funding comes from oil and gas and coal companies and wealthy real estate evelopers, with the rest raised in $100 and $200 increments from conservatives around the country, according to the group’s IRS filings.
Continue Reading CloseJustin Elliott is a reporter for ProPublica. You can follow him on Twitter @ElliottJustin More Justin Elliott.
Tricky Mitt: Romney’s mosque calculations
Don't think it was an accident that he waited more than three weeks to say anything about the "ground zero mosque"
FILE PHOTO 9AUG74 - Former U.S. President Richard M. Nixon gives his farewell speech to members of his cabinet and staff in the East Room of the White House, following his resignation August 9, 1974. On Monday it will be 25 years since Nixon resigned his office, or "resigned in disgrace" as many of the news accounts would say, as it became clear the House of Representatives would impeach him for Watergate misdeeds and the Senate would follow by convicting him. In the quarter century since that day, historians, politicians and Nixon himself until he died on April 22, 1994, have argued his legacy and how his resignation - the first by an American president - changed the highest office in the land.
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BM/JDP(Credit: © Str Old / Reuters) Ben Smith has a helpful post documenting the likely 2012 GOP contenders’ public statements on the “ground zero mosque.” Not surprisingly, none of them are for it. What is surprising, though, is how long it took Mitt Romney to express his opposition.
It was, after all, more than three weeks ago that Sarah Palin called on “peace-seeking Muslims” to “refudiate” the planned community center — a pronouncement that spurred Newt Gingrich to declare that the Cordoba House shouldn’t be built until churches are constructed in Saudi Arabia. Others have followed suit, and the political incentive is obvious: As I wrote on Sunday, Islamophobia binds the GOP’s voters together today like anti-communism did a generation or two ago. The mosque is an easy red meat issue for any Republican thinking ahead to Iowa and South Carolina.
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Steve Kornacki writes about politics for Salon. Reach him by email at SKornacki@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @SteveKornacki More Steve Kornacki.
Ex-wife: Newt’s too busy getting rich to run for president
A decade after Newt dumped her, Marianne Gingrich gives a wide-ranging, eye-opening interview to Esquire
Former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich speaks during a fundraising breakfast for Iowa Congressional candidate Brad Zaun, Monday, July 12, 2010, in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)(Credit: AP) Esquire’s John H. Richardson has an epic profile of Newt Gingrich that features extensive interviews with Marianne Gingrich, Newt’s second wife and the woman he divorced in 2000 to marry an aide who is 23 years his junior.
Despite the recent hype, Marianne does not believe Newt is really serious about running for president. Why not? He’s too busy making lots and lots of money. Here’s Esquire:
Continue Reading CloseJustin Elliott is a reporter for ProPublica. You can follow him on Twitter @ElliottJustin More Justin Elliott.
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