Salon.com > 2016 Elections

Hillary Clinton is still the clear favorite in a potential Dem primary

Thu, 02 May 2013 15:52:00 +0000

A new poll from Quinnipiac University finds that Hillary Clinton is still the clear favorite to win in a potential 2016 Democratic primary field. If she doesn't run, Biden is the frontrunner by a significant margin.

From the poll:

Ms. Clinton would get 65 percent of Democratic votes compared to 13 percent for Vice President Joe Biden, 4 percent for New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and 1 percent or less for Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley and Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. If Clinton is not in the race, Biden would get 45 percent, with 15 percent for Gov. Cuomo, 6 percent for, Gov. Patrick, 3 percent O'Malley and 2 percent for Warner.

Ted Cruz will never be president

Wed, 01 May 2013 17:48:00 +0000

During the 2012 election cycle I occasionally ran stories declaring that various Republicans being touted as White House material “will never be president.” Sarah Palin after her narcissistic Gabby Giffords meltdown; Newt Gingrich early in his race-baiting campaign; Mitt Romney after his British Olympics screw-up.

I batted 1.000 for that cycle, but it was easy. In 2016, Republicans won’t be facing a Democratic incumbent, so somebody has a shot. I recently wrote that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will never be president, due to his out-of-control anger issues, but candidly, I think that’s my riskiest one yet.

How to interpret Kirsten Gillibrand’s political opportunism

Mon, 29 Apr 2013 20:10:00 +0000

You're not allowed, it seems, to write an article about New York Sen. and possible presidential hopeful Kirsten Gillibrand without comparing her to Tracy Flick (Politico yesterday dutifully observed the tradition). Yes, Gillibrand is ambitious, female and blonde and has been said to have sharp elbows -- it's taken less than that to trot out the "Election" protagonist before -- but there may be a more interesting comparison here: Mitt Romney.

When Gillibrand -- a hot topic in political circles this week, as a potential liberal presidential candidate and a champion for addressing sexual assault in the military -- was appointed to Hillary Clinton's Senate seat in 2009, Nate Silver wrote, "This is not a terrific outcome for progressive Democrats," because "Gillibrand, statistically speaking, has been one of the more conservative Democrats in the House. Moreover, she is a somewhat proud conservative, being a member of the Blue Dog caucus. In a state like New York, which is capable of electing and re-electing a very liberal senator, that’s a somewhat underachieving result for the Democrats."

Cuomo disputes report about not challenging Hillary in 2016

Mon, 29 Apr 2013 16:52:00 +0000

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo disputed a New York Post report that he decided he will not to run for president in 2016 if Hillary enters the race. “There is no truth to the assertion that I’m talking presidential politics and strategy and what Hillary Clinton should do or shouldn’t do or what I’m doing presidentially,” Cuomo told WCNY on Monday, the New York Observer's Politicker blog reports.

“The only discussions I’m having are about how to help the state, how to get the state running, how to make the government a better government,” he conitnued. “And to the extend I’m focusing on politics, it’s my race next year.”

“I understand the press appeal of presidential politics,” Cuomo added. “But no, I’m doing what I’m doing.”

Report: Cuomo won’t run if Hillary does

Mon, 29 Apr 2013 13:02:00 +0000

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has reportedly decided not to run for president in 2016 if Hillary Clinton enters the race, according to the New York Post.

From the Post:

“The governor has told people in recent weeks that there’s not a chance for him to run if Hillary gets in the race because she’ll easily wrap up the Democratic nomination,’’ said a Cuomo administration insider with direct knowledge of the situation.

“He knows that and he accepts that, and so he won’t even be thinking at all in those terms — unless Hillary decides not to run, which seems unlikely,’’ the source continued.

Barbara Bush is right

Thu, 25 Apr 2013 18:51:00 +0000

We heard it repeatedly during the 2012 campaign and its sad aftermath for the GOP: The party’s silver lining was its “deep bench” of 2016 contenders. Paul Ryan and Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul, Bobby Jindal and Scott Walker -- they were younger than Mitt Romney; they brought racial and ethnic diversity; Christie would bring a little ideological diversity, too, coming from the almost extinct wing of Northeastern Republicans. 2016 promised to be a bracing, exciting battle for the new soul of the party.

So I’ve found it a sad commentary on GOP rebuilding that there’s been so much talk this week about the likelihood and desirability of a Jeb Bush candidacy. And apparently one influential Republican, his mother, Barbara, agrees with me.

Barbara Bush on Jeb: “We’ve had enough Bushes”

Thu, 25 Apr 2013 15:23:00 +0000

Former First Lady Barbara Bush says that though she thinks Jeb Bush is a strong candidate for the presidency in 2016, she doesn't want him to run. "We've had enough Bushes," she said on "The Today Show."

"He's by far the best qualified man, but no," she continued. "I really don't. I think it's a great country, there are a lot of great families, and it's not just four families or whatever. There are other people out there that are very qualified, and we've had enough Bushes."

Bush added that she doesn't think Jeb, the former governor of Florida, will run: "He's the most qualified, but I don't think he'll run."

Bobby Jindal kills controversial tax plan

Mon, 08 Apr 2013 21:17:00 +0000

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal scrapped a plan to replace income and corporate taxes with a new sales tax, following public outcry and a precipitous drop in his approval ratings.

The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that Jindal announced that he will pull his plan in a speech opening this year's legislative session, telling state lawmakers that he will not "pout" or "take his ball and go home." From the Times-Picayune:

The speech is a major concession that Jindal's proposal, a complicated plan contained in a total of 11 bills, is unpopular both within and outside the Legislature. The proposal has come under increasingly heavy fire in recent weeks as business groups and advocates for the poor have assailed its effects and think tanks have questioned whether the math in the proposal adds up.

Jindal acknowledges the strong opposition to the proposal in his prepared remarks.

One thing we don’t know about Hillary

Wed, 03 Apr 2013 14:17:00 +0000

Hillary Clinton made her first public speech since leaving the State Department last night, addressing the Vital Global Leadership Awards at the Kennedy Center. She did not say she is running for president in 2016. But this week, at least, she seems very much like she is. A super PAC staffed in part with former Clinton campaign aides is up and running and sending out press releases. Clinton made a show of support for gay marriage in a Human Rights Campaign video, and will make a whole host of speeches at venues across the country over the next few months. (She's on the lucrative private speaking circuit as well.)

There is a series of clichéd caveats you have to get through when you write about this stuff: 2016 is a long ways away. Making predictions is an invitation to mockery in a few years' time. At this point in 2006, the 2008 election was supposedly going to pit Mark Warner against George Allen.

Pro-Hillary group presses supporters for pledges

Tue, 02 Apr 2013 15:54:00 +0000

Friends of Hillary PAC, the official unofficial political action committee pushing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to run for president in 2016, went live today, blasting out an email to supporters asking that they take a "pledge to help put Hillary in the White House."

Clinton has publicly divulged no plans to run and has no formal political operation -- so the PAC is hoping to fill the void, calling itself the "nation's premier organization urging" Clinton to run. Chairwoman Allida Black wrote to supporters today:

Scott Walker hires torture apologist to ghostwrite campaign book

Mon, 25 Mar 2013 20:54:00 +0000

Looks like Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is going to try to be president now. Robert Costa reports that Walker is "collaborating on a book with Marc Thiessen, a former chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush." It's not like a sci-fi robot murder mystery that takes place in the distant future on Ganymede, either: It is an I would like to be president sort of book, "with stories about his family, his values, and his rise to power." It will probably be boring.

But just because it will be a boring book doesn't mean that its existence isn't interesting.

Thiessen is a very poor Washington Post opinion columnist who wrote a book in which he strung together a series of distortions in support of the thesis that torture is great. Before the book and the column gig, he was a speechwriter for George W. Bush and Donald Rumsfeld. (Before that, Thiessen spent six years as a spokesperson and "policy adviser" to unreconstructed white supremacist Sen. Jesse Helms, which is another thing that should effectively bar him from participating in civilized society.)

Karl Rove: GOP’s 2016 candidate “could” back gay marriage

Sun, 24 Mar 2013 17:46:00 +0000

During a discussion on ABC News' "This Week" of the Supreme Court's upcoming decision on Proposition 8 and DOMA, Karl Rove said that he could envision the 2016 Republican presidential candidate backing gay marriage.

“Can you imagine the next presidential campaign a Republican candidate saying flat out ‘I am for gay marriage,’” host George Stephanopoulos asked Rove.

"I could," he replied.

Watch:

David Plouffe: I wouldn’t run Hillary’s campaign

Mon, 18 Mar 2013 15:08:00 +0000

In an interview with Jeff Greenfield at the 92 Street Y on Sunday, President Obama's former top campaign adviser David Plouffe said that he wouldn't run Hillary Clinton's campaign if she decides to run in 2016, "because I'm done with that."

"She'd obviously be an extraordinarily strong candidate if she decided to run," he said. "We've got others obviously who will look at, it certainly if she doesn't. But it's too soon to know."

Watch:

Ted Cruz to CPAC: I filibustered too!

Sat, 16 Mar 2013 22:40:00 +0000

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz couldn't have known the results of the CPAC straw poll before he wrote his keynote address he delivered here Saturday evening, but he could hardly have targeted his message better if he had. The poll results showed an overwhelmingly young and libertarian-leaning crowd, and Cruz spent much of the speech trying to take some credit for Rand Paul's popular filibuster against drone secrecy this month, which Cruz assisted.

Cruz made drones and civil liberties the cornerstone of the speech, using the issue both to take a stand for something he believes in and to hammer President Obama. It played such a prominent role in his speech that one has to wonder if Paul, who won the straw poll just moments earlier, would resent Cruz's attempt to steal a bit of his thunder.

Cruz also relished the opportunity to take a shot at Sen. John McCain, who sharply criticized Paul and Cruz's filibuster, calling them "wacko birds." “If standing for liberty and standing for the Constitution means you’re a wacko bird, then count me a proud wacko bird. I think there are more than a few other wacko birds gathered here today," he said to cheers.

Rand Paul wins CPAC straw poll

Sat, 16 Mar 2013 21:50:00 +0000

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul won the much-watched CPAC straw poll Saturday evening, edging out Florida Sen. Marco Rubio by 2 percentage points by leading a libertarian turn for the conservative convention.

After Paul (25 percent) and Rubio (23 percent), came Rick Santorum (8 percent), Chris Christie (7 percent), Paul Ryan (6 percent) and Scott Walker (5 percent). After that, a surprise: Ben Carson, the black neurosurgeon who is a rising star in the conservative movement and spoke earlier today at the conference. Carson tied Ted Cruz for 4 percent, and they were in turn followed by Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin, who tied with 3 percent each.

There were 23 candidates listed on the survey, and 44 more who were written in. Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Allen West and Fox News Judge Andrew Napolitano each won some votes, but none got over 1 percent. Jeb Bush withdrew his name from consideration.

The issue questions showed a strong year for libertarians. About 50 percent said the U.S. should take a step back from foreign policy interventionism, while just a little over a third said they think we need a more muscular military and foreign policy. Eighty percent said they oppose using drones to kill U.S. citizens, while 70 percent said they oppose using them to spy on Americans.

Rubio and Paul’s CPAC showdown

Wed, 13 Mar 2013 13:09:00 +0000

Sens. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Rand Paul, R-Ky., will give back-to-back speeches at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Thursday, which will no doubt fuel the speculation about a potential showdown over the White House in 2016.

From The Hill:

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) will speak to the annual Conservative Political Action Conference at 1:15 p.m. on the event’s opening day. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) will follow 15 minutes later.

The conference double-header gives the CPAC audience its first chance to directly compare and contrast two ambitious lawmakers who have found early-career success as favorites of Tea Party Republicans.

Each senator is fresh off giving another high-profile speech that set them up as a potential Republican candidate in the next presidential race: Rubio with his rebuttal to the President's State of the Union, and Paul with his filibuster of John Brennan's nomination to CIA chief.

Marco Rubio vs. Jeb Bush

Wed, 06 Mar 2013 15:00:00 +0000

The always crucial Florida Republican primary in the 2016 presidential race is still almost three years away, but the state’s real primary battle may not be decided by voters at the ballot box, but by a small group of wealthy Florida donors after a battle fought on the airwaves and in backrooms.

Regardless of which names actually end up on the ballot in January 2016, there are two participants in a Florida primary happening right now: Jeb Bush and his ascendent former protégé, Marco Rubio. And it took on added intrigue this week with the flap over Bush’s book.

People who have worked in Florida politics say Rubio would be nowhere without the former governor. His initial election as a young state legislator; his meteoric rise in state House of Representatives to speaker after just five years; his improbable victory in the 2010 Republican Senate primary against establishment-backed Charlie Crist; his national visibility as a GOP rising star -- none of it would have happened without Bush’s imprimatur and guiding hand, they say.

What is Jeb Bush thinking?

Tue, 05 Mar 2013 18:06:00 +0000

The reaction to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's seeming flip-flop-flip on immigration has left many observers with the same reaction: What is he thinking?

Bush had been a longtime proponent of comprehensive immigration reform, so when he came out against a pathway to citizenship in his new book, there were questions.

“Jeb's immigration book roll-out reminds me of song: ‘How could something so right, go so wrong?’” tweeted Ana Navarro, a Bush ally who led Hispanic outreach for John McCain’s presidential campaign. “I'm confident Jeb will clarify.”

And this morning, clarify he did, if you can call it that. Within hours of the book’s official release Tuesday, Bush was already backtracking on the path to citizenship claim. “We wrote this book last year, not this year,” he said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” noting that there has since been an emerging bipartisan consensus on reform.

“I don’t have a problem with a pathway to citizenship,” he explained, walking back the book’s contention. “I don't see how you do it, but I'm not smart enough to figure out every aspect of a really complex law.”

No, Hillary Clinton is not too old to be president

Wed, 27 Feb 2013 01:00:00 +0000

Just in time for the most formidable female candidate in American history to run for president, it’s becoming conventional wisdom: The White House is no place for a senior citizen! Sure, we lived through eight years of Ronald Reagan and four years of his successor George H.W. Bush, who was 68 when he left office. But at 65, Hillary Clinton faces growing questions about whether she’s too old to run in 2016.

In December, Barbara Walters asked Clinton if her age was “a concern.” (She answered no.) Last month, after Clinton’s concussion scare, the Los Angeles Times' Meghan Daum explained that while more rest might result in Clinton looking “less jowly,” she “cannot be presumed to maintain her past and current energy levels into her 70s." Daum advised Clinton supporters to admit the “devastating” truth: "2008 was their one and only chance, and they missed it.”

Texas GOP chairman: State could swing Democratic if Hillary runs

Fri, 22 Feb 2013 15:05:00 +0000

Despite Mitt Romney's 16-point margin over President Obama in Texas in the 2012 election, the state GOP chairman says that Texas could swing Democratic in 2016 if Hillary Clinton decides to run.

Steve Munisteri told Real Clear Politics that Clinton could take the state from being "solid Republican": "If she's the nominee, I would say that this is a 'lean Republican state' but not a ‘solid Republican state. I don't know anyone nationally who's scoffing at this. The national party leadership is aware and tells me they're taking it seriously."

But, he added: "With everything aligned perfectly, and we don’t do what we’re supposed to do, sure they could win the state. But I anticipate we’ll do what we’re supposed to do.”