Griffith quit the Democratic Party in December, citing healthcare reform -- and a generalized dislike for, oh, pretty much everything the party stands for -- as his reason. The Republican establishment welcomed him with open arms, trumpeting the leap as another good omen for the GOP's November 2010. (Mostly open arms, that is, except when they accidentally attacked him in party-funded mailings.) At the time, Griffith seemed to be making the right move -- Democrats had stalled in their push for the healthcare bill, President Obama (never particularly popular in Griffith's district) was watching his approval ratings plunge and elections the month before had mostly gone well for the GOP. But on the ground back home, activists weren't so quick to get on board. In Madison County, Alabama, the local party endorsed anyone but Griffith in a three-way race. The Tea Party blasted Griffith, calling him a Republican in name only -- which was hard to refute, since he'd only been a Republican for a few months.

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The reason is simple: The Tea Party movement -- also known as the GOP base -- isn't that interested in working with the Republican Party establishment. In one key race after another, this could result in the GOP fielding candidates in the fall who are ideologically pure but electorally deficient.

The prime example of this is in Kentucky, a conservative state that never much cared for Barack Obama in 2008 and that has turned even more sharply against him, and against the national Democratic Party, since his presidency began. This, coupled with the feeble economy and the basic buyer's remorse nature of midterm elections, should make the contest to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning a cakewalk for the GOP.

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Take the crucial Pennsylvania Senate contest, where Republican Pat Toomey essentially spent the last year running ahead of Arlen Specter, who had been the presumed Democratic nominee. The Democrats who were propping up Specter insisted he would be the party's best general election bet, even though his 30 years in the Senate seemed to clash with the public's anti-incumbent mood. Specter, of course, lost last week's Democratic primary to Joe Sestak -- and Sestak has, at least in the initial post-primary polling, opened a small lead over Toomey.

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But don't read Tuesday night's results as a rebuke to the White House. In Arkansas, where Obama won only 38 percent of the vote in the 2008 elections, he never figured into the race. And in Pennsylvania, Specter -- who spent his career as a Republican -- was a flawed vehicle for the White House's message. A primary election in which only the most dedicated Democrats turned out hardly means a rejection of Obama.

All the support the party establishment gave Specter, after all, was mostly just payback. Specter's switch a year ago gave Democrats the 60th vote they needed to overcome Republican filibusters (after Al Franken was finally seated), and his support before that had helped pass the economic stimulus. By now, though, Specter isn't the 60th vote anymore; Obama didn't even care enough about whether he won or lost to risk a late campaign appearance on his behalf. Sestak -- who stubbornly resisted entreaties to quit the race -- hammered Specter constantly for cutting a deal for the White House help. But he also said he wants to be Obama's "closest ally" if he makes it to the Senate. That doesn't exactly sound like an anti-White House message.

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Early returns started to trickle in not long after the polls closed at 8 p.m. Eastern, and they didn't look great for Specter. Turnout was, as everyone had been saying all day, pretty low; Philadelphia was on pace to deliver only about 160,000 total votes -- which doesn't seem like it's anywhere near enough for Specter, who was counting on a big margin here. A DJ spun soul music -- Bill Withers, Stevie Wonder -- as people picked at bacon-wrapped scallops and hit the bar.

Check back here for more updates throughout the night.

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In a race few voters bothered to show up for, Rep. Joe Sestak ended Specter's political career after 30 years in the Senate, defeating him easily -- the AP declared Sestak the victor less than three hours after the polls closed -- to win the Democratic nomination for the seat Specter held. He'll face Republican Pat Toomey, who drove Specter from the GOP primary last year, in the fall.

A few minutes after the news broke, Specter strode into a half-empty ballroom in a Center City hotel and said a quick goodbye. "It's been a great privilege to serve the people of Pennsylvania," he said. "And it's been a great privilege to be in the United States Senate. I'll be working very, very hard for the people of the commonwealth in the coming months. Thank you all." And then he strode off the stage, his eyes rimmed in red, accompanied by his wife, Joan, his son Shanin and his granddaughters. And an already mopey party turned downright pathetic. (The DJ said he'd been told to play upbeat music, but avoided anything too celebratory "in case he don't win.")

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The Democratic Senate primary here poses something of a test of the old urban machine style of politics that's still practiced in Philadelphia. For Sen. Arlen Specter to emerge with his new party's nomination, he needs to rack up a huge margin in Philly, and that means relying on Brady's operation to deliver votes. Rep. Joe Sestak, on the other hand, hardly even has a field operation in place.

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But the actual president? He'll be literally flying over the state around lunchtime, on his way to Youngstown, Ohio (just past Pennsylvania's western border), to talk up signs of an economic recovery.

Which, if you look at the final days of the Senate primary between Specter and his surging rival, Rep. Joe Sestak, is probably apt. Obama has been hovering over the race all along, endorsing Specter in exchange for his switch from Republican to Democrat last year, throwing his former campaign apparatus into the fray on Specter's behalf and -- in the last couple of weeks -- urging supporters to back the incumbent in TV ads, radio spots and automated phone calls. Specter's whole campaign, especially the crucial get-out-the-vote operation in Philadelphia, boils down to his ties to the president. But as the race comes to a close, Sestak has been trying to walk a delicate line, too. Sure, he's the rogue insurgent who isn't afraid to take on the party establishment, but he's also careful to say he wants to be Obama's "closest ally" if he makes it to the Senate. And yet Sestak's camp is expecting most of the "surge" voters who came out two years ago to vote for Obama to stay home.

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"The depiction of Senator Specter during the time he was clearly exhibiting the adverse effects of chemotherapy is truly reprehensible," a Specter ally, Cyril Wecht, says in a statement Specter issued Thursday morning. "Political differences and aggressive campaigning should always be pursued with in the bounds of personal sensitivity and basic decency."

Wecht's main credential, though, is that he's the former Allegheny County coroner. Which means the Specter campaign is using a guy who used to examine dead bodies to complain about Sestak making Specter look like one.

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Specter's been through a lot since November 2008, of course. He broke with the GOP to pass Obama's economic stimulus bill. He switched parties. He faced down furious voters. He built up a big lead in polls ahead of Pennsylvania's May 18 Democratic Senate primary... and then he squandered it.

For Specter to win Tuesday's primary against Rep. Joe Sestak, he needs heavy turnout in Philadelphia, especially among black voters who helped power Obama to an 11-point win in the state over McCain two years ago. In the presidential election, black voters made up 13 percent of Pennsylvania's electorate. Turnout doesn't tend to be that high, though, in primaries; in 2006, when the party also had a contested Senate race, only 12 percent of the city's Democrats showed up to vote. Which is why Specter has been running radio ads featuring Obama on Philly radio stations that cater to black listeners, and why he's blanketing the TV airwaves with Obama's image, as well.

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We can argue all we want about Specter's strategy -- and specifically his decision to attack Sestak's military record, a gambit that has emerged as a popular explanation for Specter's apparent collapse. But the real explanation might just be that Specter's bid to survive as a Democrat was doomed from the start.

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The survey shows Sestak may be the best hope for Democrats if they want to hold onto the seat in November. Republican nominee Pat Toomey beats Specter 50-38 percent in the poll, but is only ahead of Sestak 42-40.

Which, if voters buy the findings, could undercut one of the main reasons to vote for Specter in the first place. Remember, this is a guy who was a Republican himself until a year ago, when he decided Toomey would beat him for the GOP nomination. But if Democrats think Specter will just lose anyway in the fall, why not take a shot on Sestak? They may not know him as well, but at least he was a Democrat last time he ran.

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Back in 2004, the last time Specter sought re-election, he was opposed in the Republican primary by then-Rep. Pat Toomey. Specter barely survived that fight, posting  a 51-49 percent victory -- a margin of just 17,000 votes. What is notable is that Specter never trailed Toomey in a single poll before that primary. In the final three independent surveys conducted before the April 27, 2004 contest, Specter posted leads of six, six and five points. Those numbers weren't that comforting for the incumbent, since he was just under 50 percent in each survey, but they at least suggested a decent chance of victory for him.

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In March 2009, Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., faced a difficult primary campaign if he wanted the nomination for another term. So in part to prove his GOP bona fides, he voted against confirming Elena Kagan, President Obama's choice for solicitor general. "I am not prepared to relinquish the institutional prerogatives of the Senate to ask questions," Specter thundered. Kagan had, apparently, been insufficiently forthcoming on her approach to the law.

Fast forward a bit. In May 2010, Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa., faces a difficult primary campaign if he wants the nomination for another term. After cruising for a while against Rep. Joe Sestak, Specter may even be trailing now -- with a week to go before the election. Which means he's likely to be a bigger fan of Elena Kagan, Supreme Court nominee, than he was of Elena Kagan, solicitor general nominee.

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The result: Specter left the GOP over a year ago; McCain is facing a grave primary challenge; Bennett may need luck just to make it to a primary in Utah; and Crist is now poised to abandon his GOP primary campaign and run as an independent.

Is this a purge? Absolutely. They've all been targeted for being insufficiently conservative, and the purification campaign doesn't stop with them: Other GOP establishment figures also face potentially serious primary challenges in statewide races across the country.

This isn't as new a phenomenon as you might think. Conservatives have mobilized to cleanse their party of "moderates" before, sometimes with dramatic results.

Perhaps the most notable instance of this came in the late 1970s. The Watergate scandal and the rise of Jimmy Carter in 1976 had rendered the GOP the same depleted party it is today. When the 95th Congress convened in January 1977, Republicans held just 39 Senate seats, the last time until the Obama presidency that one party would enjoy a filibuster-proof majority.

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"Your senior senator, who has just been doing outstanding work in the Senate, Arlen Specter, is in the house," Obama told a crowd at Arcadia University on Monday, running through the usual shout-outs that visiting politicians do before moving on to their main topic (in this case, healthcare reform).

Specter — who jumped from the GOP to the Democrats in April 2009, back when the whole country seemed to be doing the same en masse — got the treatment befitting the White House's favorite. He flew up to Washington with Obama on Air Force One, getting the coveted photo op walking off the plane and schmoozing with the press afterward back at Andrews Air Force Base. Sestak, on the other hand, was already practically retired in Obama's remarks. "Somebody who rendered outstanding service to our nation before he was in Congress, Joe Sestak, is in the house," the president said, honoring Sestak's career in the Navy, but conspicuously forgetting to mention how he spends his time nowadays.

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