"Organized labor just flushed $10 million of their members’ money down the toilet on a pointless exercise," the official told Politico. "If even half that total had been well-targeted and applied in key House races across this country, that could have made a real difference in November."

"We are not an arm of the White House or the DNC or a political party," an AFL-CIO spokesman huffed. "We work on issues. And if we feel like someone is standing up for working families, we support them, and if they don't, we won't.”

Halter’s out-of-state Internet backers reacted furiously. Salon’s indispensable Glenn Greenwald, co-founder of Accountability Now, which helped recruit Halter, argued that the "Democratic Party establishment" had abandoned its constituents.

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First of all, though, maybe we all got a little ahead of ourselves in imagining that Halter had this thing sewn up. He was never ahead by more than a few points in a few polls. So it might be that Lincoln's comeback doesn’t need that much analysis at all. These things happen all the time.

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Lincoln narrowly escaped becoming became the fifth member of a not-so-illustrious club of incumbents who lost primary challenges Tuesday, beating Lieutenant Gov. Bill Halter in a runoff election for the Democratic nomination for the job she holds now. It was a defeat for progressives, who had longed to dump the moderate-to-conservative Lincoln; unions spent millions supporting Halter -- and attacking Lincoln for voting for NAFTA, opposing the Employee Free Choice Act and wavering on healthcare reform, among other perceived heresies. MoveOn.org kicked in another few million, and groups like the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Daily Kos readers sent several hundred thousand dollars each. (The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, meanwhile -- which almost always supports Republicans -- spent $300,000 on ads for Lincoln, though labor officials noted that the Chamber more or less let Lincoln go once the race went to a runoff.)

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11:27 p.m.: The fun now shifts to Nevada and California. Although California looks academic already; with four percent of the vote in, Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman have both opened enormous leads -- more than 100,000 votes -- in their respective GOP primaries. The Nevada GOP Senate primary is the real barn-burner. With 15 percent of the vote in, Sharron Angle is three points ahead of Sue Lowden, who (at least early on) is faring better than most expected. Danny Tarkanian, who had overtaken Lowden for second in some pre-primary polls, is a distant third, with about 20 percent.

11:07 p.m.: As you've probably seen by now, Blanche Lincoln has been declared the winner. (Keith Olbermann actually made the announcement by interrupting a guest who was trying to say that there were still lots of votes outstanding and that Halter still had a chance.) Lincoln will clearly be the underdog in November against Republican John Boozman. But who knows now? No one thought she'd survive tonight.

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With closely watched elections in California, Nevada, Arkansas and South Carolina (and less well-known contests in eight other states), here's a guide -- in chronological order -- of what to watch for as the returns come in.

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The first round of voting last month left Lincoln short of the 50 percent threshold needed to win the nod outright -- as a surprising 13 percent of votes went to D.C. Morrison, seen as a protest candidate -- and set up Tuesday's election. Turnout next week could be far lower than in the first round, though, which probably doesn't bode well for Lincoln. The most committed voters are likely to be the ones who want a change; that probably means they're backing Halter.

A new poll out Friday by Research 2000 for the Daily Kos showed Halter leading, 49-45 -- slightly up from last week's result. Among people who voted for Morrison who plan to turn out again, Halter led by 10 points.

Lincoln's campaign has been pushing harder and harder on the idea that Halter is the candidate of outside interests, not Arkansans, playing up his support from MoveOn.org and big labor unions (which, though they have members in Arkansas, aren't wildly popular there).

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On the GOP side, Mitch McConnell, Dick Cheney and the NRCC lost big, as Kentucky voters rejected Trey Grayson and Jeff Reetz in big Senate and House primaries there, going for Tea Party newcomers Rand Paul and Todd Lally. In Pennsylvania, the NRCC lost again, as Democrat Mark Critz beat Republican Tim Burns for Jack Murtha's old seat, in the only district that voted for John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008. Burns tried to nationalize his race by with a campaign cartoon that depicted Nancy Pelosi as a monster (about the fifth time Republicans have tried, unsuccessfully, to run against Pelosi). He only succeeded in showing he has Mommy issues with his silly Pelosi caricature.

On the Democratic side, President Obama got rocked in the Pennsylvania primary, where Democratic insurgent Joe Sestak beat "incumbent" Sen Arlen Specter (although Specter's longterm GOP history made it hard to see him as a Democratic incumbent). Meanwhile, Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter has succeeded in pushing Sen. Blanche Lincoln into a run-off, another defeat for Obama and mainstream or conservative Dems.

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Lincoln's lead in the most recent polls tends to be in the 10-point ballpark. She was ahead of Halter 46-37 percent in a Research 2000 poll this week and 44-32 in a Mason-Dixon survey two weeks ago. Her real challenge on Tuesday, though, isn't to outpoll Halter -- it's to clear the 50 percent mark, in order to avoid a runoff. (Arkansas is one of 10 states, almost all located in the South, that requires the top two finishers in a primary to go to a runoff if nobody breaks a certain percentge.)

In a two-person race, the winner would, naturally, break 50 percent. However, unbeknownst to many national observers, this is a three-person race: The other candidate is D.C. Morrison, who’s been running to Lincoln’s right and employing a variety of Tea Party-ish talking points. Morrison polled at 6 percent in the Research 2000 survey and at 7 in Mason-Dixon's.

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Word from Arkansas is that private polls continue to show Lincoln flirting with the 50 percent mark that she'd need to win next Tuesday's primary outright, without getting into a runoff. Halter allies hope all the people who say they're backing businessman D.C. Morrison (running as a sort of "pox on both their houses" longshot) in polls actually do show up, because that could help hold Lincoln's total down. But the relentlessly negative tone of the TV ads in the campaign, coupled with Lincoln's realization that she actually had a fight on her hands, appears to have helped her consolidate her base while alienating people from Halter a bit.

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The ad specifically praises Lincoln for supporting bonuses for companies that manufacture their products in the United States. But the official, Eddie Vale, pointed out that the Chamber actually vehemently opposed "buy American" provisions in the stimulus bill last year -- and issued a report just a few months ago on the same theme.

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The ads started airing Tuesday. (The chamber confirmed to Salon that it was behind the buy, but officials wouldn't say how long the ads would run or how frequently.)  "In Arkansas, we depend on our small businesses, and for years small businesses have counted on Senator Blanche Lincoln," the ad says. "Call Senator Lincoln and thank her for protecting small businesses and family farms. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is responsible for this advertising."

Watch a copy here:

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Polls show Lincoln has maintained a decent lead over Halter, even though he got into the race with a splash of national attention. Progressive groups from outside Arkansas, and labor unions in the state, backed him immediately; Lincoln has won a reputation among many national Democrats for breaking with the party on key votes, and the primary was seen as a chance to take revenge.

Now the weekend's debates could give Lincoln a chance to consolidate her lead -- or Halter a chance to undo it. Between 10 and 20 percent of voters are still undecided, surveys show, and that doesn't necessarily bode well for an incumbent of 14 years.

"The polls are frustrating, the results disparate, but she does seem to have a relatively healthy lead," says Janine Parry, a political science professor and director of the Arkansas Poll at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville.

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"When Blanche Lincoln moved to Washington, D.C., full time, she didn't just become part of the place," the narrator says. "She became part of the problem."

Lincoln is ahead in most polls, but the first quarter financial reports due to federal regulators Thursday indicated some possible trouble for her. From Jan. 1 to March 31, Lincoln raised $1.3 million, and has $4.3 million in the bank. Halter, meanwhile, raised more than $2 million -- even though he didn't get into the race until March.

Watch the AFSCME ad here:

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Of course, Halter, who's now the Arkansas lieutenant governor, says he's running to help turn around the economy and create jobs, and to speak for the people, not for the special interests in Washington. And Lincoln, naturally, isn't exactly throwing in the towel. But it's not hard to see why Halter thought he had a chance in the first place. For months, the polls back home have brought Lincoln nothing but bad news; only a few incumbents have ever dug themselves out of holes like the one she's in. In the month since Halter finally got into the race, the trouble has kept mounting for Lincoln. A survey out Thursday showed him doing slightly better than the incumbent against possible Republican nominees. The same day, Halter's campaign announced he raised about $2 million this quarter -- even though he's only been running since March 1. Lincoln, working for the full three months, raised about half that.

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As of Tuesday night, the combined efforts of four liberal groups -- MoveOn.org, Daily Kos, Democracy for America and Progressive Change Campaign Committee -- had raised $1 million for Halter in just 36 hours. (MoveOn was responsible for $900,000 of that.)

"These are one million reasons that Blanche Lincoln will be sorry that she consistently sided with corporate interests over her constituents on issues like the public option," Adam Green, a co-founder of PCCC, told Salon by e-mail.

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So it's not too surprising that progressive groups like MoveOn.org would immediately jump on the Halter bandwagon. MoveOn did so Monday with an e-mail to members asking for donations to Halter. The e-mail is reproduced below -- all emphases are in the original.

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Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is now set to enter the race, running against Lincoln for the Democratic Party's nomination. Halter's been discussed as a possible primary challenger for some time now. His entry into the race has made quite a few liberals happy, as Lincoln, a moderate, hasn't endeared herself to the left, especially on issues like healthcare reform.

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