Salon.com > Bloomberg

Predictions for tomorrow’s jobs report

Thu, 02 May 2013 20:57:00 +0000

I’m expecting 130K on total payrolls and 135K on private, so I’m below consensus, which Bloomberg puts at 153K for the total. I expect the unemployment rate to maybe tick up a tenth.

And that’s all the time we should spend forecasting these volatile monthly numbers. More interesting, I think, is the question of why everyone gets so wrapped up in the monthly numbers when the actual signal-to-noise ratio they yield is not that high. The 90% confidence interval around the payroll number, for example, is about 100,000, meaning there’s a 90% chance that the actual change in payrolls in a given month is that much higher or lower than the reported change. So, given last month’s initial print of 88,000, we can’t rule out the possibility we actually lost jobs.

Well, one reason for all the attention, courtesy of GS analysts, is that the jobs report doesn’t just move markets. It moves markets far more than any other economic indicator. The figure below plots how equity futures and the yield on the 10-year T-bill respond to upside surprises in the various indicators we all pour over.

Breaking: Judge overturns NYC soda ban

Mon, 11 Mar 2013 19:46:00 +0000

A lawsuit filed by the National Restaurant Association and others argued that Mayor Michael Bloomberg's Board of Health illegally regulated beverage sizes, and a judge has invalidated the ban.

New York Supreme Court Judge Milton Tingling issued a permanent injunction barring the city from enforcing its drink regulations, calling them "fraught with arbitrary and capricious consequences. The simple reading of the rule leads to the earlier acknowledged uneven enforcement even within a particular city block, much less the city as a whole ... the loopholes in this rule effectively defeat the state purpose of the rule."

You can read the transcript of the full decision here.

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Ed Koch’s enduring, uneasy gay legacy

Fri, 01 Feb 2013 16:27:00 +0000

He was the larger-than-life mayor of New York through some of the most colorful and changeable years of the city's history. Ed Koch, who died early Friday morning at 88, presided over the Big Apple through the era of the Central Park jogger, Bernhard Goetz, Black Friday and gentrification. He was the mayor of punks and club kids and debutantes, of the Gordon Geckos and the young Madonnas. He was, most of all, the mayor during the AIDS crisis. And as much as he is remembered for all the things he did, he'll go down in history for all the things he didn't do, at the moment action was needed most – and for the lingering questions of why.

6 things money shouldn’t be able to buy

Tue, 11 Dec 2012 15:49:00 +0000

Need a womb? You can rent one from an Indian surrogate mother for $8,000. Want to make millions? Do like Natalie
Dylan did and auction off your virginity online.

Before the financial crash sounded a high-decibel wakeup call, Americans had gone decades without serious public discussion about the intersection of markets and morals. Sold on Reagan-era market worship and frenzied deregulation, we looked more and more to markets to solve our problems and enhance our lives. But that’s slowly starting to change. We're beginning to ask the question: When everything is for sale, how much does it really cost us?

Wal-Mart wouldn’t pay for Bangladeshi factory safety improvements

Thu, 06 Dec 2012 18:20:00 +0000

At a meeting in April 2011, more than a dozen retailers including Wal-Mart, Gap, Target and JC Penney met in Dhaka to discuss safety at their supplier Bangladeshi garment factories. Bloomberg News revealed minutes from this meeting Wednesday, which show that Wal-Mart nixed a plan that would require retailers to pay their suppliers enough to cover safety improvements.

Last month, a fire in a factory used by Wal-Mart killed 112 workers. There were no fire exits. Despite the fact that more than 700 Bangladeshi garment workers have died since 2005, Wal-Mart and Gap refused last year to pay higher costs for safety. Bloomberg cited comments from a document produced by Wal-mart’s director of ethical sourcing and a Gap official for the Dhaka meeting. It stated:

"Specifically to the issue of any corrections on electrical and fire safety, we are talking about 4,500 factories, and in most cases very extensive and costly modifications would need to be undertaken to some factories. It is not financially feasible for the brands to make such investments.”

The package deal

Wed, 05 Dec 2012 01:00:00 +0000

This may go down in history as the year the penis became omnipresent. A symbol of power since the Greco-Roman era, the phallus’s prowess in America’s post-fig leaf society has resided largely in its invisibility. But this year the penis suddenly became visible even when it wasn’t. Last month, from within his trousers, Jon Hamm’s bulge upstaged his campaign for Obama. In October, New York’s Mayor Bloomberg appeared turned on, in more ways than one, as he held a Hurricane Sandy press conference. And who can forget the Boner Rower whose Olympic bronze medal appeared to be crowned by a public happy ending? The recent swell in penises on the big screen has served to dismantle the symbolic power of the phallus and, in a time where reality and entertainment are blurred, it is little wonder that celebrities’ off-duty members are commanding our attention as much as Judd Apatow’s penile punch lines – and shedding their masculine mystique at the same time.

The year without Halloween

Wed, 31 Oct 2012 19:20:00 +0000

It hasn't quite been like the Sheriff of Nottingham stomping around and demanding everyone "call off Christmas" — but it's the closest many of us will come in our lifetimes. In the aftermath of Monday's Hurricane Sandy, a vast population of candy-hoarding families and sexy Muppets alike who weren't severely impacted by the storm now wonder how — or even if — they can celebrate Halloween. The fact that the holiday this year happened to fall less than 48 hours after the brunt of Sandy's impact presents a unique challenge: How do we strike the balance between a reserved, respectful distance from a disaster and when do we press on? How do we acknowledge the scariest day of the year immediately following the truly scariest day of the year?

Mitt rewrites auto bailout history

Wed, 31 Oct 2012 18:32:00 +0000

One of the most deceptive jujitsu moves in modern campaign is known as swiftboating: trying to turn one of your opponent’s strengths into a weakness. Given the centrality of Ohio to electoral success less than a week from today (!), it should be no surprise that the Romney team is going after the success of the President’s auto rescue.

Full disclosure: as a member of the President’s economics team I strongly advocated for the rescue, as per both my principal (the Vice-President) and the view held by myself and others that the employment costs would be particularly steep in communities that comprised the relevant supply chains. When you think about auto jobs, don’t just think about the factory at the end of the line where they assemble the cars and trucks. Think about all the small and medium size manufacturers that make those parts.

That’s where many of the new jobs in Ohio are coming from and it’s an important piece of evidence for the bailout’s success. Which makes it catnip for the Romney swiftboaters.