Earthquakes
Could the West Coast be the next earthquake disaster zone?
The devastation in Japan has many in the U.S. worried about similar calamities stateside
Days after a massive 9.0-magnitude earthquake crippled Japan, many in the United States now worry if similar catastrophe could strike stateside, particularly along the traditionally quake-riddled West Coast. And if the worries prove valid, there may not be much we can do about it. While seismology has made leaps and bounds in detecting tremors early, the U.S. Geological Survey says it cannot now — nor will it likely ever be able to — predict earthquakes before they occur.
However, that hasn’t stopped many from speculating after two major earthquakes occurred on Pacific coastal areas in recent weeks (Christchurch, New Zealand, suffered a 6.3-magnitude quake on Feb. 22) and a third, devastating tremor struck last year (Chile’s 8.8-magnitude quake on Feb. 27, 2010). Foremost among those sounding the alarms is Simon Winchester, an author and journalist, who appeared on the CNN this morning.
Winchester explains that several fault lines extend parallel along the West Coast. While ruptures to either the Hayward fault — which runs under the San Francisco Bay Area — or the much longer San Andreas fault could cause significant damage, the Cascadia fault line, in the Pacific Northwest, worries experts the most, as it, unlike the others, could cause tsunamis. What’s more, Cascadia has a geological connection to the faults that triggered earthquakes in Japan, New Zealand and Chile that could bode ill.
Winchester elaborates his theory in a Newsweek essay and warns that we might expect a quake on the California side of the Cascadia fault line in the near future:
All three phenomena involved more or less the same family of circum-Pacific fault lines and plate boundaries — and though there is still no hard scientific evidence to explain why, there is little doubt now that earthquakes do tend to occur in clusters: a significant event on one side of a major tectonic plate is often — not invariably, but often enough to be noticeable — followed some weeks or months later by another on the plate’s far side.
On CNN, Winchester also illustrated the historical connection between major seismic events along these “circum-Pacific fault lines” — otherwise known as the “ring of fire” — with a chilling graphic that points out the locations of earthquakes that occurred in the months leading up to the infamous San Francisco earthquake in 1906:
In an interview with Science Magazine, University of Washington seismologist John Vidale stops short of concurring with Winchester’s bleak prognostication, and instead draws parallels between the geological circumstances in Japan and those in the Pacific Northwest:
This earthquake is going to be the benchmark for the Pacific Northwest when the Cascadia fault breaks. We know that it can have an earthquake of this magnitude. It’s a question of when, not if.
While Southern California is less susceptible to the precise sort of devastation that afflicts Japan — the nature and position of both the San Andreas and Hayward faults all but precludes the possibility of tsunamis — a high-magnitude earthquake could have ruinous implications for any region of the West Coast:
Modern skyscrapers built to the state’s now-rigorous building codes might ride out the big jolt that experts say is all but inevitable, but the surviving buildings will tower over a carpet of rubble from older structures that have collapsed.
Hot desert winds could fan fires that quakes inevitably cause, overwhelming fire departments, even as ancient water pipelines burst, engineers and architects say.
It almost goes without saying that the U.S. will reassess its preparedness for a major geological disaster in response to last week’s events in Japan. Science points to the coast of Oregon and Washington as a likely zone for an earthquake/tsunami event. But it could be years or decades — if ever — before we’ll be able to detect the only dependable warning signs of a quake in the form of coordinated seismic activity in that area.
Japan’s blasts cast doubt on nuclear renaissance
Several countries are already freezing plans to build new reactors as Japan's nuclear crisis grabs headlines
In this image made off Japan's NTV/NNN Japan television footage, smoke ascends from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant's Unit 3 in Okumamachi, Fukushima Prefecture, northern Japan, Monday, March 14, 2011. The second hydrogen explosion in three days rocked Japan's stricken nuclear plant Monday, sending a massive column of smoke into the air and wounding 11 workers. (AP Photo/NTV/NNN Japan) MANDATORY CREDIT, JAPAN OUT, TV OUT, NO SALES, EDITORIAL USE ONLY(Credit: AP) Switzerland freezes plans to build new nuclear plants, Germany raises questions about its nuclear future, and opposition to atomic reactor construction mounts from Turkey to South Africa.
Will explosions at a tsunami-stricken Japanese nuclear plant halt what has come to be known as the nuclear renaissance?
Fears about nuclear safety that took a generation to overcome after the accidents at Chernobyl and Three-Mile Island are resurfacing around the globe. They are casting new doubt on a controversial energy source that has seen a resurgence in recent years, amid worries over volatile oil prices and global warming.
Continue Reading CloseWhat if an earthquake strikes as a plane is landing?
There is a worst-case scenario, but the only place you're liable to see it is in a Hollywood movie
Scenes from the 1974 movie "Earthquake" So, here I am trying to work this earthquake business into a column about air travel. Airplanes, airports, earthquakes. Tsunamis. There has to be a way to link them.
Except not really.
Sure, I get certain, if somewhat silly questions all the time:
What happens if an earthquake strikes just as a plane is landing or taking off?
Aircraft landing gear are designed to withstand some pretty severe jolts, but it would depend on the strength of the shaking and the speed of the plane. And better to have this happen during landing, when the idea is to stay on the ground and decelerate, rather than on takeoff, when you’re accelerating and attempting to fly. A high-speed upset on takeoff could be very dangerous, especially if the runway begins to buckle or the plane is knocked side to side and manages to smash a wingtip or an engine. (Note: The shaking of a 7.0 temblor is roughly equivalent to one of the author’s normal landings, so nothing new there.)
Continue Reading ClosePatrick Smith is an airline pilot. More Patrick Smith.
Can U.S. nuclear plants handle a major natural disaster?
After the quake Japan struggles to avoid a meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant. Could it happen in the U.S.?
As engineers in Japan struggle to bring quake-damaged reactors under control, attention is turning to U.S. nuclear plants and their ability to withstand natural disasters.
Rep. Ed Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat who has spent years pushing the Nuclear Regulatory Commission toward stricter enforcement of its safety rules, has called for a reassessment. Several U.S. reactors lie on or near fault lines, and Markey wants to beef up standards for new and existing plants.
Continue Reading CloseJapanese village washed away by tsunami
Little remains of the village of Saito after a tsunami tore through it on Friday
A Japanese rescue team member walks through the completely leveled village of Saito, in northeastern Japan, Monday, March 14, 2011. (AP Photo/David Guttenfelder)(Credit: AP) It’s hard to believe there was ever a village here at all.
The tsunami that devastated Japan’s coast rolled in through a tree-lined ocean cove and obliterated nearly everything in its path in this village of about 250 people and 70 or so houses.
Now, three days later, Saito is a moonscape of death and debris, a hellish glimpse into the phenomenal destruction caused by the killer wave that followed Japan’s most powerful earthquake on record and one of the five strongest on Earth in the past 110 years.
Continue Reading CloseLessons from Japan’s economic aftershock
The Japanese will do a better job recovering from their disaster than the U.S. did from its financial meltdown
(Credit: Kenji Shimizu) Is it overly callous to even ask the question of what impact Japan’s horrendous earthquake will have on the world economy? Judging by the blistering reaction to CNBC host Larry Kudlow’s appalling comment that “The human toll here looks to be much worse than the economic toll, and we can be grateful for that,” this is territory that demands care.
Continue Reading Close
Andrew Leonard is a staff writer at Salon. On Twitter, @koxinga21. More Andrew Leonard.
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