Hurricanes

Hurricane Irene shuts down the country’s busiest air corridor

Or is it better to play it hour by hour and hope for the best?

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Hurricane Irene shuts down the country's busiest air corridorTrees blow in a gust of wind, early Sunday, Aug. 28, 2011, in New York as Hurricane Irene approaches the region. Irene has the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage along a densely populated arc that includes Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, Boston and beyond. At least 65 million people could be affected. (AP Photo/Karly Domb Sadof)(Credit: AP)

From the Carolinas to New England, the remnants of Hurricane Irene brought havoc to East Coast airports over the past three days. Thousands of flights were canceled.

As of noontime on Saturday, all flights in or out of the three major airports serving New York City — Kennedy, LaGuardia and Newark — had been suspended. Multiple airport closings for any reason are very rare, and this was the first such closure since the terrorist attacks of 2001.

Entirely shutting down the country’s busiest air corridor might have seemed overly cautious, and perhaps the decision came a little sooner than was necessary. But with Irene approaching it was bound to happen at some point.

For pilots, the upper-altitude hazards of a hurricane are bad enough — embedded thunderstorms and widespread areas of heavy turbulence. But the real menace is down low, where powerful gusts can spawn dangerous windshear, and/or exceed the operational limitations (crosswind limits, tailwind limits and so on) of almost any commercial aircraft.

The best way to deal with such weather is, simply enough, not to deal with it.

Another danger is that of windblown debris striking airplanes parked at the terminal or elsewhere on the tarmac, potentially causing millions in damages. As the storm approaches, planes will be repositioned out of those airports that lie in its path. Most are flown out as part of normal revenue operations, with the inbound legs canceled; others might be ferried out empty.

Carriers began postponing flights as early as Friday. This type of proactive cancellation has become common, but it’s a relatively new phenomenon. In years past, airlines had a habit of playing it hour by hour and hoping for the best. The result, more often than not, was chaos: tens of thousands of people stranded at airports, planes stuck on taxiways for hours at a time, etc.

Sure, airlines look foolish and people are ticked when a storm fizzles out, but erring on the side of caution has become the accepted practice. It’s probably a gamble worth taking.

Nature has been especially unkind to the airlines and their customers over the past 16 months or so. The Iceland volcano; the earthquake and tsunami in Japan; a long, snowy winter; and now this. Trickle-down effects make the cost of storms and disasters difficult to quantify, but surely this spell has bled away billions.

Weather-related crises, from blizzards in the United States to freak windstorms pummeling Western Europe, seem to be increasing. Although volcanoes and earthquakes are one thing, climate change may prove a more formidable foe to commercial aviation than recessions or terrorism; we’ll see.

As it happens, the closest I ever came to flying in a hurricane was, ironically enough, at JFK — in the dead of winter.

It was a February afternoon, and a strange winter windstorm had settled over New York City just as we began our descent.

We knew the weather was going to be tricky. We’d briefed and fueled accordingly several hours earlier. But we weren’t sure exactly what to expect.

Our approaches into Kennedy that afternoon rank among the most memorable flying experiences of my life. Approaches, plural, that is — since in fact we made three of them.

At 2,000 feet the winds were exceeding 130 knots. On the ground, gusts had hit 60.

On the first try, just as things had more or less stabilized, the controllers were forced to break us off. With groundspeeds going up and down between 50 and 100 knots, depending on heading, they couldn’t keep the spacing straight between aircraft.

They brought us around again.

On the second approach the turbulence and gusts seemed more manageable. Until 500 feet, that is, when we got a windshear warning.

“Go around.”

The controllers told us to fly runway heading to 3,000 feet, and asked our intentions.

We began running fuel calculations and pulling up the weather at various nearby airports, expecting to divert.

But moments later, air traffic control called with some bizarre, teasingly fortunate news. The wind at Kennedy was now — get ready for this — calm.

Calm?

Calm.

I looked down at the screen. At 3,000 feet over Long Island it was howling at 90 knots, yet back on the runway there was … no wind at all? How?

Heck if we knew. It was as though the eye of some bizarre February hurricane had settled over the city.

Indeed. The altimeter setting was remarkably low, for one. And 10 minutes later, three-quarters of the way through approach No. 3, it all broke loose again.

Winds had been at three knots at the point when we put the landing gear down. Seconds later the gusts were roaring back, rocking and slamming as we descended down the glide slope.

It was gusty and turbulent, for sure, but this time everything stayed within limits. No shears, no alarms. And luckily the ceiling was high enough to see the runway — long and mostly dry — from a mile or two out. Had the visibility been down or the runway slick or short, we’d already have been in Hartford, Conn., or Philadelphia.

More than one passenger would be grabbing for a barf bag. But it was safe.

It was the captain’s leg to fly. I wondered if he’d ever made three approaches on a single flight before.

Finessing was out of the question: He wrestled the plane straight, then simply drove it onto the runway with a curse, intentionally flat and firm.

Taxiing in, we watched a half-dozen or so flights come in behind us, each one battling through, just as we’d done.

Through it all, our cockpit had become one extremely busy place. It was maybe the busiest half-hour of my entire career. I did so much talking — to ATC, to the passengers, to captain and cabin crew — that by the time we got to the gate my voice was cracking. It was exhausting.

And this is one of those flights that jumps to mind whenever I hear somebody make a crack about how flying is all “automatic,” and how pilots “don’t really do anything.”

As I’m fond of pointing out, the vast majority of landings are the old-fashioned manual kind. But for the record, even if we’d wanted to use it, the winds that day exceeded the limitations of our plane’s autoland system. Hands-on was the only choice.

Conventional wisdom often holds that relying on automation is always the safest, most reliable option. Not true at all.

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Do you have questions for Salon’s aviation expert? Contact Patrick Smith through his website and look for answers in a future column.

Ron Paul on hurricane response: “We should be like 1900″

The official candidate of liberty wants to go back to the good old days of (non-existent) federal disaster response

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Ron Paul on hurricane response:

Ron Paul has a hurricane response plan:

After a lunch speech today, Ron Paul slammed the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, and said that no national response to Hurricane Irene is necessary.

“We should be like 1900; we should be like 1940, 1950, 1960,” Paul said. “I live on the Gulf Coast; we deal with hurricanes all the time. Galveston is in my district.

(Galveston is in his district! Not that he spends a lot of time there.)

Paul doesn’t support FEMA because of “moral hazard.” The fact that people will receive help should a natural disaster strike encourages people to live where natural disaster happen. (Like “North America.”) Paul is mostly talking about the National Flood Insurance Program, which definitely has glaring flaws as public policy, but abolishing the federal agency in charge of responding to natural disasters instead of fixing the problems with one program that agency oversees seems like overkill.

It’s very old news that Ron Paul thinks we should abolish FEMA, it’s just rare that you hear anyone say we should go back to the good old days of disaster response and management. “We should be like 1900″ is a very illuminating statement.

Back in those days, after hurricanes would strike, communities would remain devastated, with thousands of people homeless and hungry, for weeks. And eventually they would beg the Federal War Department for help. (But they all enjoyed their liberty, as they waited in filth and disease for help from Uncle Sam.)

Or maybe we should be like 1927?

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Hurricane forecasting one of the many things GOP doesn’t want to spend money on

Every natural disaster now comes with a story of how Congress cut funding to detect or respond to it

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Hurricane forecasting one of the many things GOP doesn't want to spend money onHurricane Irene spans nearly 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) in this satellite image

Hurricane Irene is going to hit the United States’ east coast this weekend, as you have likely heard. It looks to be a pretty nasty storm, capable of causing billions of dollars of damage. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been carefully tracking Irene, forecasting its path up the coast and its intensity. Of course, America’s Republican-demanded White House-encouraged austerity budget includes cuts to the NOAA. Cuts that will delay — by years — the construction and launch of an extreme weather forecasting satellite. So let’s hope there aren’t any serious hurricanes in 2016, I guess?

Think Progress links to the words of NOAA administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco:

Speaking at the Denver Museum of Nature and Science on a day when the weather forecast warned of possible tornadoes and golf-ball-size hail east of the city, Dr. Lubchenco said there would be a gap of at least a year and a half, and possibly much longer, during which NOAA has no operational satellite circling the planet on a north-south orbit.

The polar-orbiting satellite enables scientists to predict severe storms five to 10 days before they hit.

“Whether the gap is longer than that depends on whether we get the money”— $1 billion — “in the next budget,” warned Dr. Lubchenco, an environmental scientist. “I would argue that these satellites are critically important to saving lives and property and to enabling homeland security.”

This is an old story: Before or after a natural disaster, you can usually find a Republican who wanted to cut funding for departments and organizations that predicted and protected people from said disaster.

Remember when Louisiana governor and poor public speaker mocked the concept of funding for “volcano monitoring” and then a volcano promptly erupted in Alaska? And remember how after Eric Cantor pushed for across-the-board budget cuts for the United States Geological Survey, his district was hit with an earthquake? And remember how the House Republican budget cut funding to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and then there was an earthquake and tsunami in Japan?

Yes, well, as Matt Yglesias points out, when you want to cut funding for everything the government does, sometimes there will be major news events that involve something the government should be doing something about, and people will say, hey, shouldn’t the government be doing something about this?

Cutting money for disaster preparedness programs is a really good method of eventually wasting much more money, in the future, than you saved in the present, but that’s sort of been the entire Republican spending philosophy for years now, actually.

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Alex Pareene

Alex Pareene writes about politics for Salon and is the author of "The Rude Guide to Mitt." Email him at apareene@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @pareene

Hurricane Irene’s effects begin being felt in NC

The storm, now a Category 2, still has the East Coast on edge

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Hurricane Irene's effects begin being felt in NCAn image provided by NOAA is an Aug. 26, 2011 view of Hurricane Irene made by the GOES-east satellite. The hurricane is projected to follow a path up the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine and into Canada. (AP Photo/NOAA)(Credit: AP)

Hurricane Irene’s main thrust was still a day away from North Carolina but heightened waves began hitting the state’s Outer Banks early Friday as the storm continued trudging toward the East Coast.

Swells from Irene and 6 to 9-foot waves were showing up and winds were expected to begin picking up later in the day, said Hal Austin, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

Meanwhile, the hurricane warning area was expanded and now covered a large chunk of the East Coast from North Carolina to Sandy Hook, N.J., which is south of New York City. A hurricane watch extended even farther north and included Long Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket, Mass.

For hundreds of miles, as many as 65 million people along the densely populated East Coast warily waited Friday for a dangerous hurricane that has the potential to inflict billions of dollars in damages anywhere within that urban sprawl that arcs from Washington and Baltimore through Philadelphia, New York, Boston and beyond.

Irene weakened slightly Friday, dropping down to a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds near 110 mph (175 kph). But some re-strengthening was possible and the storm was expected to be near the threshold between a Category 2 and 3 storm as it reached North Carolina’s coast, the National Hurricane Center said.

In North Carolina, traffic was steady Friday as people left the Outer Banks. Tourists were ordered to leave the barrier islands Thursday and many residents were following as ordered Friday.

At a gas station in Nags Head, Pete Reynolds said he wanted to make sure he had enough fuel for the long trip. The retired 68-year-old teacher spent part of Thursday getting his house ready for the hurricane. Now, he and his wife, Susan, were heading to New Jersey area to stay with their son’s family.

“We felt like we would be OK and we could ride out the storm,” said Reynolds, who lives in Nags Head. “But when they announced mandatory evacuations, I knew it was serious.”

Speaking Friday on CBS’ “The Early Show,” North Carolina Gov. Beverly Perdue said the state has Highway Patrol Troopers, the Red Cross and National Guardsmen in place to deal with the storm’s aftermath. But she warned coastal residents not to risk waiting out the storm and hoping for help after it passed.

“You can’t count on that. Folks need to decide that they need to get out now,” she said.

North Carolina was just first in line along the Eastern Seaboard — home to some of the nation’s most heavily populated areas and some of its priciest real estate. Besides major cities, sprawling suburban bedroom communities, ports, airports, highway networks, cropland and mile after mile of built-up beachfront neighborhoods are in harm’s way.

“One of my greatest nightmares was having a major hurricane go up the whole Northeast coast,” Max Mayfield, the National Hurricane Center’s retired director, told The Associated Press on Thursday as the storm lurched toward the U.S. “This is going to be a real challenge … There’s going to be millions of people affected.”

The hurricane would be the strongest to strike the East Coast in seven years, and people were already getting out of the way. After dousing the Bahamas, it was again moving over warm Atlantic waters that will energize it.

The center of the storm was still about 375 miles (600 kilometers) south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, N.C., and moving to the north at 14 mph (22 kph).

Hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers were told Thursday to pack a bag and be prepared to move elsewhere. The nation’s biggest city hasn’t seen a hurricane in decades.

Farther south, tens of thousands packed up and left North Carolina beach towns and farmers pulled up their crops.

North Carolina farmer Wilson Daughtry has lost count of how many times his crops have been wiped out by storms that regularly blow up from the tropics.

“That’s the price of living in paradise,” he said of a fertile farm belt that’s weathered an unusually hot and dry summer. Any deluge from Irene’s rain bands could wipe out many crops just when they are ready for harvesting.

What’s at stake in North Carolina? Latest figures show coastal North Carolina’s fields earned nearly $6.3 billion in farm income in 2009 alone from its tobacco, corn and other crops.

Risks are many from Irene’s wrath: surging seas, drenching rains, flash floods and high winds are all possibilities the Federal Emergency Management Agency director wasn’t counting out.

“We’re going to have damages, we just don’t know how bad,” Craig Fugate told AP as FEMA readied plans in many states. “This is one of the largest populations that will be impacted by one storm at one time.”

Latest forecasts had Irene crashing up the North Carolina coastline Saturday, then churning up the East while drenching areas from Virginia to New York City before a much-weakened storm reaches New England.

Even if the winds aren’t strong enough to damage buildings in a metropolis made largely of brick, concrete and steel, a lot of New York’s subway system and other infrastructure is underground and subject to flooding in the event of an unusually strong storm surge or heavy rains, authorities noted.

New York City’s two airports also are close to the water and could be inundated, as could densely packed neighborhoods, if the storm pushes ocean water into the city’s waterways, officials said. The city had a brush with a tropical storm, Hanna, in 2008 that dumped 3 inches of rain in Manhattan.

All told, Irene could cause billions of dollars in damage or more along the Eastern Seaboard in a worst case scenario, said Kathleen Tierney, director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado.

In the last 200 years, New York has seen only a few significant hurricanes. In September of 1821, a hurricane raised tides by 13 feet in an hour and flooded all of Manhattan south of Canal Street, the southernmost tip of the city. The area now includes Wall Street and the World Trade Center memorial.

New England is also unaccustomed to direct hits from hurricanes. Maine lobsterman Greg Griffin, who fishes from Portland, Maine, still recalls the clobbering when Hurricane Gloria struck in 1985 and said this one is not one to ignore after years without a large, dangerous storm.

“We have a young generation of lobstermen who’ve never experienced a full-blown hurricane,” Griffin warned.

The first U.S. injuries from Irene appeared to be in South Florida near West Palm Beach where eight people were washed off a jetty Thursday by a large wave churned up by the storm.

In Washington, Irene dashed hopes of dedicating a 30-foot sculpture to the late Martin Luther King Jr. on the National Mall on Sunday with the help of President Barack Obama. While a direct strike on the nation’s capital appeared slim, organizers said the forecasts of wind and heavy rain made it too dangerous to summon a throng they initially expected to number up to 250,000 strong.

Heavy rain and possible floods were big worries in the Northeast. The potential for flooding and wind damage are Irene’s greatest threats to Rhode Island, still smarting from the 2010 spring floods that devastated parts of the Ocean State.

In Connecticut, Gov. Daniel P. Malloy declared a state of emergency and warned there could be prolonged power outages if Irene dumps up to a foot of rain on already saturated ground as some fear. He said emergency responders must be ready in event of any evacuations from heavily developed urban areas.

“We are a much more urban state than we were in 1938,” he said, referring to the year that the so-called “Long Island Express” hurricane killed 600 people and caused major damage with 17-foot storm surges and high winds.

The urban population explosion in recent decades also worries New Jersey officials. Gov. Chris Christie encouraged anyone on that state’s heavily built-up shoreline to begin preparations to leave.

The beach community of Ocean City, Md., was taking no chances, ordering thousands of people to leave.

“This is not a time to get out the camera and sit on the beach and take pictures of the waves,” said Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley.

Associated Press writers Michael Biesecker in Raleigh, N.C.; Jennifer Peltz and Seth Borenstein in New York; Wayne Parry, Geoff Mulvihill and Bruce Shipkowski in New Jersey; Brock Vergakis in Virginia; Randall Chase in Ocean City, Md.; and Martha Waggoner in North Carolina contributed to this story.

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Irene pounds the Bahamas on way to U.S. East Coast

Category 3 hurricane gains strength as it approaches the states

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Irene pounds the Bahamas on way to U.S. East CoastIn an image provided by NOAA and made by the GOES East satellite Hurricane Irene is shown as it move over the Bahama Thursday Aug. 25, 2011. Irene could hit North Carolina's Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon with winds around 115 mph (185 kph) and it's predicted to go up the East Coast, dumping rain from Virginia to New York City. (AP Photo/NOAA)(Credit: AP)

Hurricane Irene is pounding the northwestern Bahamas on its march across the Caribbean toward the U.S. East Coast.

Meanwhile, officials from North Carolina to New England are looking at what they need to do prepare for the first major hurricane to hit the East Coast in seven years.

As of 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, the Category 3 hurricane was centered about 65 miles (105 kilometers) east-northeast of Nassau in the Bahamas. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.

Also Thursday, a hurricane watch was issued for the coast of North Carolina along with a tropical storm watch for South Carolina.

And in Virginia, the U.S. Navy’s Second Fleet has started moving ships away from Norfolk Naval Station to keeps them safe from the approaching storm.

Irene becomes Category 3 storm on way to East Coast

Hurricane gathers strength as it heads towards the U.S.

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Irene becomes Category 3 storm on way to East CoastAn image released by the NOAA made from the GEOS East satellite shows Hurricane Irene on Aug. 24, 2011 as it moves northwest from the Dominican Republic. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Federal officials have warned Irene could cause flooding, power outages or worse all along the East Coast as far north as Maine, even if it stays offshore. (AP Photo/NOAA)(Credit: AP)

Hurricane Irene has strengthened to a major Category 3 storm as it heads toward the East Coast.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Irene’s maximum sustained winds have increased Wednesday to near 115 mph (185 kph) with additional strengthening forecast during the next day or so.

Meanwhile, evacuations have begun on a tiny barrier island off North Carolina early Wednesday in a test of whether people in the crosshairs of the first serious hurricane along the East Coast in years will heed orders to get out of the way.

Irene is centered about 335 miles (540 kilometers) southeast of Nassau in the Bahamas and is moving west-northwest near 9 mph (15 kph).

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