There was a very specific purpose to this. Hillary Clinton would be the overwhelming front-runner for the 2008 nomination, everyone knew, the favorite of many of the big donors and pragmatic establishment types that Edwards had cultivated in ’04. The only room would be to Hillary’s left, where grass-roots Democratic voters and activists remained infuriated by the role their party’s national leaders had played in authorizing the war. This was the turf Edwards would seek out.

And for a while, it worked. Through 2005 and the first half of 2006, Edwards’ support in national Democratic polls slowly ticked up, until he was running second to Hillary among likely ’08 candidates. Meanwhile, Kerry, who very much wanted to run again, also tried reinventing himself as more blunt, unrestrained ideologue, but to little effect; his support steadily dropped into the single digits. And Dean took on the chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee, effectively removing himself from the ’08 mix. The chief threat to Edwards’ strategy, it seemed, was Al Gore, whose grass-roots popularity was soaring with the acclaimed release of “An Inconvenient Truth.” But Gore was an unlikely and reluctant prospect. As the summer of 2006 wore on, a very real path to victory emerged for Edwards: Defeat Clinton in Iowa’s activist-dominated caucuses, survive New Hampshire, then win again in Nevada with union support, and finish Clinton off in South Carolina, Edwards’ native state.

Who knows what would have happened if at this same moment Barack Obama, then less than two years removed from the Illinois state Legislature, hadn’t set out to help a few of his party’s candidates in the ’06 midterms and been overwhelmed by the size of the crowds that greeted him? During his first year in the Senate, Obama hadn’t seriously considered a presidential run; in fact, he’d ruled it out over and over. And the press and political observers had no reason to doubt him: He hadn’t done anything yet, barely had any experience on the national stage, and was famous only because of one speech. Obviously, he would wait until 2016 or some future date to run for president.

By December, it was clear Obama was running, and that was basically it for Edwards, whose dreams of cornering the grass-roots, anti-Hillary market were ruined. Now it was a Hillary-Obama race, with Edwards relegated to a supporting role. But he still had enough support to press on, even after the March 2007 news that his wife’s cancer had returned and was now terminal. He’d need one of the front-runners to stumble — and he finally saw his chance in the first week of January 2008.

Just weeks earlier, the first report of Edwards’ affair with Rielle Hunter (and the child they had conceived) had emerged, but in the National Enquirer only; no mainstream outlet would touch them. Even if Edwards’ story seemed a little fishy, everyone gave him the benefit of the doubt over a trashy tabloid, and the campaign proceeded as if nothing had happened. Thus, when the Iowa caucuses were held on Jan. 3, Edwards was able to finish a surprising second — eight points behind Obama but slightly ahead of Clinton. Suddenly, Hillary the Inevitable was on the ropes. Her poll numbers nationally and in New Hampshire, which would vote five days later, crashed overnight, while Obama’s surged. Edwards saw his opening: If Hillary suffered a bad loss in New Hampshire, she might be forced out (or at least marginalized). Then it would be an Obama-Edwards race, and the battleground would shift to the South. He could win a one-on-one race with Obama there, or so he and his team figured.

For the five days between Iowa and New Hampshire, Edwards did everything he could to bury Clinton, attacking her as a protector of the status quo, without laying a glove on Obama. It seemed to be working. Hillary’s numbers kept falling. There was talk that Edwards, whose message and personality had never been a good fit for the Granite State, might edge her out for second place. Then came the debate, the Saturday night before the primary. To any fair-minded viewer, it looked like exactly what it was: Edwards and Obama — the two men in the race — ganging up on Hillary. The reviews were harsh. It was just too much. No one can be sure exactly why Hillary was able to reverse her polling slide and prevail in New Hampshire three days later, but it’s hardly unreasonable to suggest that voters — particularly female voters — felt she was being treated too harshly by her opponents and the media and rallied around her, not wanting to see her campaign end so soon.

Whatever the explanation, Clinton’s surprise triumph slammed the door on Edwards’ nomination chances. It was still a Hillary-Obama race and Edwards was still an afterthought. By the end of the month, he was out of the race, and Democrats were safe. Obama went on to win the nomination and the presidency, but there’s little doubt that Hillary would have been just as successful against John McCain. 

But Edwards, as we all found out a few months later, would have been a complete and total disaster. And things didn’t have to work out quite so neatly for Democrats. If Obama, truly a once-in-a-generation political phenomenon, hadn’t emerged, Edwards probably would have gotten his one-on-one race with Hillary — a race he could have won. And if Hillary hadn’t engineered that miraculous New Hampshire victory — a result that still baffles political observers — he still might have found a way to win the nomination. For Democrats, he could easily have ruined everything.

But the indictment is the first time we’ve seen a coherent narrative from the government in the case, and it includes some fascinating details. It alleges, for example, that Mellon wrote a series of checks for as much as $200,000 to be funneled to pay Hunter’s expenses. But in the memo section of the checks Mellon wrote “chairs” or “antique Charleston table” or “book case.”

The indictment also alleges that Baron paid for luxury accommodations for Hunter and Young, including a $25,283 bill for the Four Seasons Hotel in Santa Barbara, Calif., in January 2008. Baron also allegedly gave Young an envelope with $10,000 cash and a note reading, “Old Chinese saying: use cash, not credit cards!”

Here are statements (.pdf) from Edwards’ legal team rejecting the charges.

And here’s the indictment:

Edwards Indictment

The indictment is the culmination of a federal investigation that lasted more than two years and scoured through virtually every corner of Edwards’ political career.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP’s earlier story is below.

Criminal charges were likely to be filed Friday against John Edwards, the culmination of a two-year federal investigation into money used to cover up an extramarital affair during the 2008 presidential election.

Edwards’ attorney Greg Craig was traveling to meet with prosecutors in North Carolina, an indication that the former presidential candidate will likely be charged, either in a grand jury indictment or in a negotiated charge to which he would plead guilty.

A person with knowledge of the investigation said Craig, a Washington lawyer who was President Barack Obama’s first White House counsel, planned to be in his client’s home state Friday, where prosecutors were prepared to file charges. The source insisted on anonymity in order to discuss the private negotiations.

Prosecutors have told Edwards they will charge him Friday but plea negotiations continue, so a grand jury indictment or deal on a negotiated charge are both still possible, the person said.

The federal prosecutor for North Carolina’s Eastern District, U.S. Attorney George Holding, arrived at the federal courthouse in Raleigh shortly before 9 a.m. He declined comment.

Federal officials have approved criminal charges, deciding that the hundreds of thousands of dollars two Edwards donors gave to help keep his mistress in hiding were contributions that should have been reported publicly by his campaign fund because they aided his bid for the Democratic White House nomination. Edwards’ lawyers have argued that the funds were gifts from friends intended to keep the affair a secret from his wife, Elizabeth, who died of cancer in December.

A plea to a felony charge involving campaign finances could strip Edwards of his law license and end any hope he could work as an attorney for the poor. And a trial would mean more sordid stories about his campaign affair and the child he fathered during it, further battering his reputation.

Even if he were to win the case, it appears the 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee would do so by making a humiliating argument: that money used to keep his mistress and out-of-wedlock child in hiding was intended to shield the affair from his cancer-stricken wife — not to aid his candidacy, which is what prosecutors believe.

“Trial or not, John Edwards is the Charlie Sheen of American politics — great hair and no chance for rehabilitation,” Democratic consultant Jack Quinn said.

Political sex scandals can either be just a career glitch (think Newt Gingrich, who recently announced a run for the presidency) or a career-ender (think Mark Foley, who recently declined a run for mayor of West Palm Beach, Florida). Many Democrats believe Edwards falls into the latter category, as someone who faces little chance of revitalizing his image even if he emerges victorious from his legal case.

Edwards’ attorneys have denounced the investigation as a waste of resources and contend he did not violate the law.

Edwards has said he hopes that once this case is behind him he can revive his legal career, specializing in helping the victims of poverty he championed on the campaign trail. However, a lawyer in North Carolina who pleads guilty or no contest to a criminal offense faces disciplinary action by the State Bar, ranging from a mild rebuke to a loss of license to practice.

The case against Edwards focused on the private money used to keep Edwards’ mistress in hiding. Andrew Young, a former aide to Edwards, initially claimed paternity of mistress Rielle Hunter’s child and traveled around the country keeping her in seclusion. Young has said he received hundreds of thousands of dollars of support from two wealthy Edwards donors.

Another dent in an Edwards’ revival is moving ahead in civil court, where Young and Hunter are battling over a purported sex tape involving the former candidate. Edwards has been deposed as part of that lawsuit.

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Pickler reported from Washington.