Libya
Are we ready for a Libyan oil shock?
Get ready for more GOP attacks on Obama's energy policy: Gas pump prices are rising, and the Mideast is to blame
A sign advertises gas and diesel prices, plus gives an explanation to customers, at a service station in Easthampton, Mass, Wednesday, Feb. 23, 2011. Oil prices rose past $99 a barrel on Wednesday as forces loyal to Libya's Moammar Gadhafi clashed with protesters expanding their control over parts of the country. (AP Photo/ Shana Sureck)(Credit: Shana Sureck) Could civil war in Libya crush the U.S. economic recovery? At one point Thursday morning, the price of crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange at $103.41 a barrel, the highest mark since September 2008. Just about everyone is blaming events in Libya, a country responsible for producing about 2 percent of the world’s oil.
A handy economist’s rule of thumb holds that for every ten dollar rise in the price of a barrel a crude, we can shave about half a percentage point off of GDP growth. In normal economic times, spread over a long enough period of time, that would amount to nothing more than a mild head wind. When economies are growing steadily, a gradually increasing price of oil isn’t a huge problem. The White House is complacent; speaking for the Obama administration, economist Austan Goolsbee said “we’re not forecasting… that at these levels they would derail the recovery.”
But these aren’t normal times. Goldman Sachs warned on Wednesday that Republican budget cuts could depress growth by anywhere from 1.5 to 2 percentage points this year. The price of crude has jumped ten dollars since December and if it keeps surging at an accelerated clip, the headwind suddenly becomes a rip tide. And while, Libya, by itself, is too small a player to incite a serious oil shock, the paramount question is how far the Mideast democracy movement spreads. Algeria — responsible for another 2.5 percent of world oil production — might be the next domino to fall. On Wednesday, in a blatantattempt to stave off any organized popular discontent, Saudi Arabi’s King Abdullah announced a package of $37 billion in benefits for the kingdom’s 18 million inhabitants.
Throw into the mix the steadily increasing demand for oil by the usual emerging economy suspects, and you end up with a scenario in which it would be foolish to discount the possibility of a real oil shock, far beyond anything that we’ve seen in the last month.
The political jockeying has already begun. House Speaker John Boehner’s official blog has already resuscitated the all-too-familiar GOP talking points trotted out whenever concern about gas prices prices threatens to gain traction with the general public — the dangers of offshore oil restrictions, Environmental Protection Agency regulations and “green stimulus” spending. Remember — rising oil prices gave John McCain one of his few really successful opportunities to bash Obama on policy grounds, and the political heat is sure to ramp up with each new surge above the $100 a barrel mark.
Andrew Leonard is a staff writer at Salon. On Twitter, @koxinga21. More Andrew Leonard.
Gadhafi forces strike back at opponents in Libya
Attacking several sites around the country, including a mosque, Gadhafi's attacks against protesters increase
A Libyan doctor treats a wonded man who was injured last week during the demostration against Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, in Benghazi, Libya, on Thursday Feb. 24, 20011. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)(Credit: AP) Army units and militiamen loyal to Moammar Gadhafi struck back Thursday against rebellious Libyans who have risen up in cities close to the capital, attacking a mosque where many were holding an anti-government sit-in and battling others who seized control of an airport. Medical officials said 15 people were killed in the clashes.
In a rambling phone call to state TV, Gadhafi accused al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden of being behind the uprising. The Libyan leader said the revolt that began Feb. 15 has been carried out by young men hopped up on hallucinogenic pills given to them “in their coffee with milk, like Nescafe.”
Continue Reading CloseObama dispatches Clinton for talks on Libya, condemns violence
President names possible sanctions against the country as a means to pressure Gadhafi's regime to halt attacks
President Barack Obama on Wednesday condemned the violence in Libya as “outrageous … and unacceptable” and said he was dispatching Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to Geneva for international talks aimed at stopping the violence.
Obama said he was studying a “full range of options” to pressure Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi’s regime to halt attacks against Libyans as violent clashes spread throughout the North African country. He said the options included possible sanctions that the U.S. could take with its allies as well as steps it might take by itself.
Continue Reading CloseAs U.S. rebuilt ties with Libya, human rights concerns took a back seat
Some critics say when U.S. rebuilt ties with Libya, it favored narrow strategic interests over human rights
Libyan army soldiers shout slogans against Libyan Leader Moammar Gadhafi during a demonstration, in Tobruk, Libya, on Wednesday, Feb. 23, 2011. Heavy gunfire broke out in Tripoli as forces loyal to Moammar Gadhafi tightened their grip on the Libyan capital while anti-government protesters claimed control of many cities elsewhere and top government officials and diplomats turn against the longtime leader. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)(Credit: AP) This story was originally published on ProPublica.
The brutality in Libya has prompted the State Department to issue several statements in recent days strongly condemning the Libyan government and calling the bloodshed “completely unacceptable” — though it stopped short of threatening sanctions.
Continue Reading CloseEx-minister says Gadhafi ordered Lockerbie bombing
Former justice minister says he has proof that Libyan dictator ordered 1988 attack that killed 270
This image broadcast on Libyan state television Tuesday, Feb. 22, 2011, shows Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi as he addresses the nation in Tripoli, Libya. Libya's Gadhafi vowed to fight on against protesters demanding his ouster and die as martyr. (AP Photo/Libya State Television via APTN)(Credit: AP) Libya’s ex-justice minister on Wednesday was quoted as telling a Swedish newspaper that Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi personally ordered the Lockerbie bombing that killed 270 people in 1988.
“I have proof that Gadhafi gave the order about Lockerbie,” Mustafa Abdel-Jalil was quoted as saying in an interview with Expressen, a Stockholm-based tabloid.
Abdel-Jalil, who stepped down as justice minister to protest the clampdown on anti-government demonstrations, didn’t describe the proof.
Continue Reading CloseLibyan protesters seize major cities, close in on Gadhafi’s compound
Gadhafi's forces clamp down in Tripoli, while Eastern cities break grip of government
Libyans living in Japan and their supporters shout slogans against Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi in front of the Libyan embassy in Tokyo, on Wednesday, Feb. 23, 2011. (AP Photo/Shizuo Kambayashi)(Credit: AP) Heavy gunfire broke out in Tripoli as forces loyal to Moammar Gadhafi tightened their grip on the Libyan capital while anti-government protesters claimed control of many cities elsewhere and top government officials and diplomats turn against the longtime leader.
While residents of cities in the eastern half of the country celebrated, raising the flags of the old monarchy, the mood in Tripoli was bleak. Residents were afraid to leave their houses, saying pro-Gadhafi forces were opening fire randomly in the streets.
Continue Reading ClosePage 52 of 53 in Libya