Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

“We don’t want to confirm or deny the Holocaust”

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad talks about Israel, his letter to Bush and Iran's nuclear ambitions.

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Spiegel: Mr. President, you are a soccer fan and you like to play soccer. Will you be sitting in the stadium in Nuremberg on June 11, when the Iranian national team plays against Mexico in Germany?

Ahmadinejad: It depends. Naturally, I’ll be watching the game in any case. I don’t know yet whether I’ll be at home in front of the television set or somewhere else. My decision depends upon a number of things.

Spiegel: For example?

Ahmadinejad: How much time I have, how the state of various relationships are going, whether I feel like it and a number of other things.

Spiegel: There was great indignation in Germany when it became known that you might be coming to the soccer world championship. Did that surprise you?

Ahmadinejad: No, that’s not important. I didn’t even understand how that came about. It also had no meaning for me. I don’t know what all the excitement is about.

Spiegel: It concerned your remarks about the Holocaust. It was inevitable that the Iranian president’s denial of the systematic murder of the Jews by the Germans would trigger outrage.

Ahmadinejad: I don’t exactly understand the connection.

Spiegel: First you make your remarks about the Holocaust. Then comes the news that you may travel to Germany — this causes an uproar. So you were surprised after all?

Ahmadinejad: No, not at all, because the network of Zionism is very active around the world — in Europe too. So I wasn’t surprised. We were addressing the German people. We have nothing to do with Zionists.

Spiegel: Denying the Holocaust is punishable in Germany. Are you indifferent when confronted with so much outrage?

Ahmadinejad: I know that Der Spiegel is a respected magazine. But I don’t know whether it is possible for you to publish the truth about the Holocaust. Are you permitted to write everything about it?

Spiegel: Of course we are entitled to write about the findings of the past 60 years’ historical research. In our view there is no doubt that the Germans — unfortunately — bear the guilt for the murder of 6 million Jews.

Ahmadinejad: Well, then we have stirred up a very concrete discussion. We are posing two very clear questions. The first is: Did the Holocaust actually take place? You answer this question in the affirmative. So, the second question is: Whose fault was it? The answer to that has to be found in Europe and not in Palestine. It is perfectly clear: If the Holocaust took place in Europe, one also has to find the answer to it in Europe.

On the other hand, if the Holocaust didn’t take place, why then did this regime of occupation …

Spiegel: … You mean the state of Israel …

Ahmadinejad: … come about? Why do the European countries commit themselves to defending this regime? Permit me to make one more point. We are of the opinion that, if a historical occurrence conforms to the truth, this truth will be revealed all the more clearly if there is more research into it and more discussion about it.

Spiegel: That has long since happened in Germany.

Ahmadinejad: We don’t want to confirm or deny the Holocaust. We oppose every type of crime against any people. But we want to know whether this crime actually took place or not. If it did, then those who bear the responsibility for it have to be punished, and not the Palestinians. Why isn’t research into a deed that occurred 60 years ago permitted? After all, other historical occurrences, some of which lie several thousand years in the past, are open to research, and even the governments support this.

Spiegel: Mr. President, with all due respect, the Holocaust occurred, there were concentration camps, there are dossiers on the extermination of the Jews, there has been a great deal of research, and there is neither the slightest doubt about the Holocaust nor about the fact — we greatly regret this — that the Germans are responsible for it. If we may now add one remark: The fate of the Palestinians is an entirely different issue, and this brings us into the present.

Ahmadinejad: No, no, the roots of the Palestinian conflict must be sought in history. The Holocaust and Palestine are directly connected with one another. And if the Holocaust actually occurred, then you should permit impartial groups from the whole world to research this. Why do you restrict the research to a certain group? Of course, I don’t mean you, but rather the European governments.

Spiegel: Are you still saying that the Holocaust is just “a myth”?

Ahmadinejad: I will only accept something as truth if I am actually convinced of it.

Spiegel: Even though no Western scholars harbor any doubt about the Holocaust?

Ahmadinejad: But there are two opinions on this in Europe. One group of scholars or persons, most of them politically motivated, say the Holocaust occurred. Then there is the group of scholars who represent the opposite position and have therefore been imprisoned for the most part. Hence, an impartial group has to come together to investigate and to render an opinion on this very important subject, because the clarification of this issue will contribute to the solution of global problems. Under the pretext of the Holocaust, a very strong polarization has taken place in the world and fronts have been formed. It would therefore be very good if an international and impartial group looked into the matter in order to clarify it once and for all. Normally, governments promote and support the work of researchers on historical events and do not put them in prison.

Spiegel: Who is that supposed to be? Which researchers do you mean?

Ahmadinejad: You would know this better than I; you have the list. There are people from England, from Germany, France and from Australia.

Spiegel: You presumably mean, for example, the Englishman David Irving, the German-Canadian Ernst Zündel, who is on trial in Mannheim, and the Frenchman Georges Theil, all of whom deny the Holocaust.

Ahmadinejad: The mere fact that my comments have caused such strong protests, although I’m not a European, and also the fact that I have been compared with certain persons in German history, indicates how charged with conflict the atmosphere for research is in your country. Here in Iran you needn’t worry.

Spiegel: Well, we are conducting this historical debate with you for a very timely purpose. Are you questioning Israel’s right to exist?

Ahmadinejad: Look here, my views are quite clear. We are saying that if the Holocaust occurred, then Europe must draw the consequences and that it is not Palestine that should pay the price for it. If it did not occur, then the Jews have to go back to where they came from. I believe that the German people today are also prisoners of the Holocaust. Sixty million people died in the Second World War. World War II was a gigantic crime. We condemn it all. We are against bloodshed, regardless of whether a crime was committed against a Muslim or against a Christian or a Jew. But the question is: Why among these 60 million victims are only the Jews the center of attention?

Spiegel: That’s just not the case. All peoples mourn the victims claimed by the Second World War, Germans and Russians and Poles and others as well. Yet, we as Germans cannot absolve ourselves of a special guilt, namely for the systematic murder of the Jews. But perhaps we should now move on to the next subject.

Ahmadinejad: No, I have a question for you. What kind of a role did today’s youth play in World War II?

Spiegel: None.

Ahmadinejad: Why should they have feelings of guilt toward Zionists? Why should the costs of the Zionists be paid out of their pockets? If people committed crimes in the past, then they would have to have been tried 60 years ago. End of story! Why must the German people be humiliated today because a group of people committed crimes in the name of the Germans during the course of history?

Spiegel: The German people today can’t do anything about it. But there is a sort of collective shame for those deeds done in the German name by our fathers or grandfathers.

Ahmadinejad: How can a person who wasn’t even alive at the time be held legally responsible?

Spiegel: Not legally but morally.

Ahmadinejad: Why is such a burden heaped on the German people? The German people of today bear no guilt. Why are the German people not permitted the right to defend themselves? Why are the crimes of one group emphasized so greatly, instead of highlighting the great German cultural heritage? Why should the Germans not have the right to express their opinion freely?

Spiegel: Mr. President, we are well aware that German history is not made up of only the 12 years of the Third Reich. Nevertheless, we have to accept that horrible crimes have been committed in the German name. We also own up to this, and it is a great achievement of the Germans in postwar history that they have grappled critically with their past.

Ahmadinejad: Are you also prepared to tell that to the German people?

Spiegel: Oh yes, we do that.

Ahmadinejad: Then would you also permit an impartial group to ask the German people whether it shares your opinion? No people accepts its own humiliation.

Spiegel: All questions are allowed in our country. But of course there are right-wing radicals in Germany who are not only anti-Semitic but xenophobic as well, and we do indeed consider them a threat.

Ahmadinejad: Let me ask you one thing: How much longer can this go on? How much longer do you think the German people have to accept being taken hostage by the Zionists? When will that end — in 20, 50, 1,000 years?

Spiegel: We can only speak for ourselves. Der Spiegel is nobody’s hostage; Spiegel does not deal only with Germany’s past and the Germans’ crimes. We’re not Israel’s uncritical ally in the Palestinian conflict. But we want to make one thing very clear: We are critical, we are independent, but we won’t simply stand by without protest when the existential right of the state of Israel, where many Holocaust survivors live, is being questioned.

Ahmadinejad: Precisely that is our point. Why should you feel obliged to the Zionists? If there really had been a Holocaust, Israel ought to be located in Europe, not in Palestine.

Spiegel: Do you want to resettle a whole people 60 years after the end of the war?

Ahmadinejad: Five million Palestinians have not had a home for 60 years. It is amazing really: You have been paying reparations for the Holocaust for 60 years and will have to keep paying up for another 100 years. Why then is the fate of the Palestinians no issue here?

Spiegel: The Europeans support the Palestinians in many ways. After all, we also have a historic responsibility to help bring peace to this region finally. But don’t you share that responsibility?

Ahmadinejad: Yes, but aggression, occupation and a repetition of the Holocaust won’t bring peace. What we want is a sustainable peace. This means that we have to tackle the root of the problem. I am pleased to note that you are honest people and admit that you are obliged to support the Zionists.

Spiegel: That’s not what we said, Mr. President.

Ahmadinejad: You said Israelis.

Spiegel: Mr. President, we’re talking about the Holocaust because we want to talk about the possible nuclear armament of Iran — which is why the West sees you as a threat.

Ahmadinejad: Some groups in the West enjoy calling things or people a threat.

Spiegel: The key question is: Do you want nuclear weapons for your country?

Ahmadinejad: Allow me to encourage a discussion on the following question: How long do you think the world can be governed by the rhetoric of a handful of Western powers? Whenever they hold something against someone, they start spreading propaganda and lies, defamation and blackmail. How much longer can that go on?

Spiegel: We’re here to find out the truth. The head of state of a neighboring country, for example, told Spiegel: “They are very keen on building the bomb.” Is that true?

Ahmadinejad: You see, we conduct our discussions with you and the European governments on an entirely different, higher level. In our view, the legal system whereby a handful of countries force their will on the rest of the world is discriminatory and unstable. One hundred thirty-nine countries, including us, are members of the International Atomic Energy Authority in Vienna. Both the statutes of IAEA and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty as well as all security agreements grant the member countries the right to produce nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes. That is the legitimate legal right of any people. Beyond this, however, IAEA was also established to promote the disarmament of those powers that already possessed nuclear weapons. And now look at what’s happening today: Iran has had an excellent cooperation with IAEA. We have had more than 2,000 inspections of our plants, and the inspectors have obtained more than 1,000 pages of documentation from us. Their cameras are installed in our nuclear centers. IAEA has emphasized in all its reports that there are no indications of any irregularities in Iran. That is one side of this matter.

Spiegel: IAEA doesn’t quite share your view of this matter.

Ahmadinejad: But the other side is that there are a number of countries that possess both nuclear energy and nuclear weapons. They use their atomic weapons to threaten other peoples. And it is these powers who say that they are worried about Iran deviating from the path of peaceful use of atomic energy. We say that these powers are free to monitor us if they are worried. But what these powers say is that the Iranians must not complete the nuclear fuel cycle because deviation from peaceful use might then be possible. What we say is that these countries themselves have long deviated from peaceful usage. These powers have no right to talk to us in this manner. This order is unjust and unsustainable.

Spiegel: But, Mr. President, the key question is: How dangerous will this world become if even more countries become nuclear powers — if a country like Iran, whose president makes threats, builds the bomb in a crisis-ridden region?

Ahmadinejad: We’re fundamentally opposed to the expansion of nuclear-weapons arsenals. This is why we have proposed the formation of an unbiased organization and the disarmament of the nuclear powers. We don’t need any weapons. We’re a civilized, cultured people, and our history shows that we have never attacked another country.

Spiegel: Iran doesn’t need the bomb that it wants to build?

Ahmadinejad: It’s interesting to note that European nations wanted to allow the shah’s dictatorship the use of nuclear technology. That was a dangerous regime. Yet those nations were willing to supply it with nuclear technology. Ever since the Islamic Republic has existed, however, these powers have been opposed to it. I stress once again, we don’t need any nuclear weapons. We stand by our statements because we’re honest and act legally. We’re no fraudsters. We only want to claim our legitimate right. Incidentally, I never threatened anyone — that, too, is part of the propaganda machine that you’ve got running against me.

Spiegel: If this were so, shouldn’t you be making an effort to ensure that no one need fear your producing nuclear weapons that you might use against Israel, thus possibly unleashing a world war? You’re sitting on a tinderbox, Mr. President.

Ahmadinejad: Allow me to say two things. No people in the region are afraid of us. And no one should instill fear in these peoples. We believe that if the United States and these two or three European countries did not interfere, the peoples in this region would live peacefully together as they did in the thousands of years before. In 1980, it was also the nations of Europe and the United States that encouraged Saddam Hussein to attack us. Our stance with respect to Palestine is clear. We say: Allow those to whom this country belongs to express their opinion. Let Jews, Christians and Muslims say what they think. The opponents of this proposal prefer war and threaten the region. Why are the United States and these two or three European nations opposed to this? I believe that those who imprison Holocaust researchers prefer war to peace. Our stance is democratic and peaceful.

Spiegel: The Palestinians have long gone a step further than you and recognize Israel as a fact, while you still wish to erase it from the map. The Palestinians are ready to accept a two-state solution, while you deny Israel its right to existence.

Ahmadinejad: You’re wrong. You saw that the Palestinian people elected Hamas in free elections. We argue that neither you nor we should claim to speak for the Palestinian people. The Palestinians themselves should say what they want. In Europe it is customary to call a referendum on any issue. We should also give the Palestinians the opportunity to express their opinion.

Spiegel: The Palestinians have the right to their own state, but in our view the Israelis naturally have the same right.

Ahmadinejad: Where did the Israelis come from?

Spiegel: Well, if we tried to work out where people have come from, the Europeans would have to return to East Africa where all humans originated.

Ahmadinejad: We’re not talking about the Europeans; we’re talking about the Palestinians. The Palestinians were there, in Palestine. Now 5 million of them have become refugees. Don’t they have a right to live?

Spiegel: Mr. President, doesn’t there come a time when one should accept that the world is the way it is and that we must accept the status quo? The war against Iraq has put Iran in a favorable position. The United States has suffered a de facto defeat in Iraq. Isn’t it now time for Iran to become a constructive power of peace in the Middle East? Which would mean giving up its nuclear plans and inflammatory talk?

Ahmadinejad: I’m wondering why you’re adopting and fanatically defending the stance of the European politicians. You’re a magazine, not a government. Saying that we should accept the world as it is would mean that the winners of World War II would remain the victorious powers for another 1,000 years and that the German people would be humiliated for another 1,000 years. Do you think that is the correct logic?

Spiegel: No, that’s not the right logic, nor is it true. The Germans have played a modest, but important role in postwar developments. They do not feel as though they have been humiliated and dishonored since 1945. We are too self-confident for that. But today we want to talk about Iran’s current mission.

Ahmadinejad: Then we would accept that Palestinians are killed every day, that they die in terrorist attacks, and that houses are being destroyed. But let me say something about Iraq. We have always favored peace and security in the region. For eight years, the Western countries provided arms to Saddam in the war against us, including chemical weapons, and gave him political support. We were against Saddam and suffered severely because of him, so we’re happy that he has been toppled. But we don’t accept a whole country being swallowed under the pretext of wanting to topple Saddam. More than 100,000 Iraqis have lost their lives under the rule of the occupying forces. Fortunately, the Germans haven’t been involved in this. We want security in Iraq.

Spiegel: But, Mr. President, who is swallowing Iraq? The United States has practically lost this war. By cooperating constructively, Iran might help the Americans consider their retreat from the country.

Ahmadinejad: This is very interesting: The Americans occupy the country, kill people, sell the oil and when they have lost, they blame others. We have very close ties to the Iraqi people. Many people on both sides of the border are related. We have lived side by side for thousands of years. Our holy pilgrimage sites are located in Iraq. Just like Iran, Iraq used to be a center of civilization.

Spiegel: What are you trying to say?

Ahmadinejad: We have always said that we support the popularly elected government of Iraq. But in my view the Americans are doing a bad job. They have sent us messages several times asking us for help and cooperation. They have said that we should talk together about Iraq. We publicly accepted this offer, although our people do not trust the Americans. But America has responded negatively and insulted us. Even now we’re contributing to security in Iraq. We will hold talks only if the Americans change their behavior.

Spiegel: Do you enjoy provoking the Americans and the rest of the world now and then?

Ahmadinejad: No, I’m not insulting anyone. The letter that I wrote to Mr. Bush was polite.

Spiegel: We don’t mean insult, but provoke.

Ahmadinejad: No, we feel animosity toward no one. We’re concerned about the American soldiers who die in Iraq. Why do they have to die there? This war makes no sense. Why is there war when there is reason as well?

Spiegel: Is your letter to the president also a gesture toward the Americans that you wish to enter into direct negotiations?

Ahmadinejad: We clearly stated our position in this letter on how we view the problems in the world. Some powers have befouled the political atmosphere in the world because they consider lies and fraud to be legitimate. In our view that is very bad. We believe that all people deserve respect. Relationships have to be regulated on the basis of justice. When justice reigns, peace reigns. Unjust conditions aren’t sustainable, even if Ahmadinejad does not criticize them.

Spiegel: This letter to the American president includes a passage about Sept. 11, 2001. The quote: “How could such an operation be planned and implemented without the coordination with secret and security services or without the far-reaching infiltration of these services?” Your statements always include so many innuendos. What is that supposed to mean? Did the CIA help Mohammed Atta and the other 18 terrorists conduct their attacks?

Ahmadinejad: No, that’s not what I meant. We think that they should just say who is to blame. They should not use Sept. 11 as an excuse to launch a military attack against the Middle East. They should take those who are responsible for the attacks to court. We’re not opposed to that; we condemned the attacks. We condemn any attack against innocent people.

Spiegel: In this letter you also write that Western liberalism has failed. What makes you say that?

Ahmadinejad: You see, for example, you have a thousand definitions of the Palestinian problem and you offer all sorts of different definitions of democracy in its various forms. It does not make sense that a phenomenon depends on the opinions of many individuals who are free to interpret the phenomenon as they wish. You can’t solve the problems of the world that way. We need a new approach. Of course we want the free will of the people to reign, but we need sustainable principles that enjoy universal acceptance — such as justice. Iran and the West agree on this.

Spiegel: What role can Europe play in the resolution of the nuclear conflict, and what do you expect of Germany?

Ahmadinejad: We have always cultivated good relations with Europe, especially with Germany. Our two peoples like each other. We’re eager to deepen this relationship. Europe has made three mistakes with respect to our people. The first mistake was to support the shah’s government. This has left our people disappointed and discontent. However, by offering asylum to Imam Khomeini, France earned a special position that it lost again later. The second mistake was to support Saddam in his war against us. The truth is that our people expected Europe to be on our side, not against us. The third mistake was Europe’s stance on the nuclear issue. Europe will be the big loser and will achieve nothing. We don’t want to see that happen.

Spiegel: What will happen now in the conflict between the West and Iran?

Ahmadinejad: We understand the Americans’ logic. They suffered damage as a result of the victory of the Islamic Revolution. But we’re puzzled why some European countries are opposed to us. I sent out a message on the nuclear issue, asking why the Europeans were translating the Americans’ words for us. After all, they know that our actions are aimed toward peace. By siding with Iran, the Europeans would serve their own and our interests. But they will suffer only damage if they oppose us. For our people is strong and determined. The Europeans risk losing their position in the Middle East entirely, and they are ruining their reputation in other parts of the world. The others will think that the Europeans aren’t capable of solving problems.

Spiegel: Mr. President, we thank you for this interview.

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This article has been provided by Der Spiegel through a special arrangement with Salon. For more from Europe’s most-read newsmagazine, please visit Spiegel Online at http://www.spiegel.de/international or subscribe to the daily newsletter.

Iranian prez to female soccer fans: Psych!

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reneges on his decision to allow women at soccer games.

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Perhaps Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s announcement last month that women would be permitted to attend soccer matches was just a poorly executed April Fool’s joke. A government spokesman announced Monday that Ahmadinejad has reversed his decision based on disapproval from Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

This is sure to come as upsetting news for Iranian women gearing up to cheer on their national team in the upcoming World Cup, or attend a soccer match for the first time since the 1979 Iranian Revolution (without having to disguise themselves as men). Ahmadinejad initially declared that women would be welcome to attend matches and sit separate from male fans, in some of the best seats in the arena.

This isn’t the first time Ahmadinejad has flip-flopped when discussing women’s role in society. In arguing for his previous decision to allow women to attend soccer games, he said, “Some consider women as the source of corruption and this is a very wrong attitude.” He even postulated that women would have a civilizing effect on raucous soccer fans … before changing tack and adding that women sometimes espouse ideals that are contrary to Islam.

In more disheartening news regarding women in the Middle East, Afghan legislator Malalai Joya was attacked Sunday after speaking out on the parliament floor against the mujahedin. Several female colleagues threw plastic bottles at her, while male colleagues verbally attacked her and threatened to kill her, according to the Associated Press. Luckily, several fellow lawmakers formed a protective circle around her. Joya has a history of speaking out against human rights abuses and, regardless of death threats, has no intention of stopping: “They may kill me, they may slash my neck. I will never stop my words against the criminals, against the drug dealers.”

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Tracy Clark-Flory

Tracy Clark-Flory is a staff writer at Salon. Follow @tracyclarkflory on Twitter.

Attacking Iran: Are they nuts?

If the U.S. attacked Iran, the consequences would be catastrophic -- including a possible American retreat under fire in Iraq.

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Attacking Iran: Are they nuts?

As George W. Bush contemplates the prospect of attacking Iran and the regional conflagration that would result, he may be awaiting a heavenly signal that would confirm the doomsday predictions of his allies on the religious right. Here on earth, however, many of the same themes that promoted war on Iraq are beginning to appear again.

While the president arraigned Iran as a rogue state in the “axis of evil” alongside Iraq and North Korea years ago, the rhetoric portraying Tehran as the world’s most evil and dangerous regime is increasing in volume and pitch. The story line is simple and scary: Iran is a dictatorial terrorist state on the brink of acquiring a nuclear arsenal, and it is led by a madman who resembles Hitler and threatens neighboring states, especially Israel.

Now that litany, melding truth with exaggeration, must sound familiar to anyone who remembers the arguments for invading Iraq and ousting Saddam Hussein. Like Saddam, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is an ostentatious villain who sounds all too eager for confrontation, even though his government officially prefers a negotiated solution.

Soon we will hear that Tehran is allied not only with the Palestinian group Hamas but with al-Qaida (although the latter are Sunnis and the former are Shiites). As with Iraq, suspicion that Iran helped to engineer the 9/11 attacks will be encouraged if not stated explicitly. Indeed, that inflammatory accusation has been floated already in certain precincts on the right and, if the Bush administration decides to wage war, will quickly surface in the mainstream media.

Presumably all those assertions will be treated with the appropriate skepticism, now that we understand the deceptions that landed us in the Iraqi quicksand. Congressional leaders of both parties and journalists of all persuasions must ask hard questions about the intelligence concerning Iran’s nuclear program, its ambitions and its responsibility for terrorism.

Politicians and reporters should likewise question any rosy predictions about the outcome of hostilities with Iran. We now know, for instance, that oil prices will go up, not down, in the event of a war, and that the costs in life and treasure will be much greater than any prewar estimate.

Bombing and invasion will be even less welcome in Iran than “shock and awe” was in Iraq. Despicable as he is, Ahmadinejad enjoys considerably more popular support and legitimacy than Saddam did. His armed forces, wielding long-range ballistic missiles and other advanced weaponry, are in far stronger shape than Saddam’s enfeebled military.

So war with Iran would be no “cakewalk,” to put it mildly. To suppose that the United States, or Israel, could simply drop a few dozen “bunker busters” on Iranian nuclear sites without serious consequence would be exceptionally reckless.

Aside from the obvious impact on America’s international reputation and alliances, which have suffered a precipitous decline under Bush, there could be immediate and severe retaliation inflicted on coalition troops in Iraq. For anyone who cares about the well-being of our soldiers, any strike across Iraq’s eastern border should be approached with extreme caution. That’s why high-ranking American military officers are reportedly urging the president to avoid war with Iran.

Should Bush ignore their advice and order airstrikes, it is possible to imagine a disaster ensuing. At present, the coalition forces in Iraq depend heavily on supply lines that extend for 300 miles along highways from Kuwait and the southern Iraqi port at Basra. Mechanized units of the Iranian military, which currently boasts 800,000 men under arms, would not have far to go to cut those lines as soon as the United States started bombing. And their way into southern Iraq, cutting off the Al-Faw peninsula, would be paved by an uprising of the Shiite militia.

Faced with an Iranian invasion, the British might well be forced to flee. Our strained forces would have to move rapidly southward in large numbers to repel the Iranians — using equipment that is in poor shape after three years of constant use — or risk being cut off from their supplies for months. Airlifts are unlikely to suffice, and they would arrive under constant threat from shoulder-fired missiles. As one savvy observer put it, referring to the French debacle in Indochina: “Think of Dien Bien Phu in the desert.”

If an attack on Iran provoked full-scale rebellion by the Iraqi Shiites, then an even worse outcome is conceivable. Our forces, along with the tens of thousands of contractors and bureaucrats employed by the occupation, might ultimately be forced to retreat from an Iraq in flames. That would mean horrible casualties and utter humiliation. Think of Saigon in the Green Zone.

And that imagined scene doesn’t begin to delineate the costs to humanity of war sweeping across that volatile and essential region. War with the Iranian mullahs may be inevitable someday, though we should hope not. Perhaps we could try talking to them first.

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Joe Conason blogs in Salon several times a week and writes a weekly column for the New York Observer. His latest book is "It Can Happen Here: Authoritarian Peril in the Age of Bush."

Bush’s Brezhnev period

Rejecting criticism and mouthing meaningless bromides, Bush gave a speech so stagnant it would have made the Politburo proud.

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Bush's Brezhnev period

The most significant and memorable statements in President Bush’s lackluster State of the Union address, the phrases that most clearly and succinctly captured the state of his presidency after five years, were his heartfelt and hostile admonishments: “Hindsight alone is not wisdom. And second-guessing is not a strategy.”

Bush did not claim to have learned any lessons from the past. Nor did he propose any new strategies. By assailing “hindsight” and “second-guessing,” he attempted to deny legitimacy to critics and criticism. He banished analysis of his previous actions from consideration in formulating current or future policy. He denounced “isolationism” but asserted his own isolation. Anyone who does not adhere to the party line must be a dangerous and subversive revisionist. George Santayana (“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”) is uninvited.

By denigrating “hindsight,” Bush made his mark alongside the line in the sand drawn the week before by his chief political advisor, Karl Rove. “At the core,” said Rove, “we are dealing with two parties that have fundamentally different views on national security. Republicans have a post-9/11 worldview, and many Democrats have a pre-9/11 worldview.” With these comments, Rove and Bush signaled the Republican midterm elections strategy, also a repetition of past plans. Democratic candidates should expect television commercials morphing their faces into Osama bin Laden’s, like the spot used in 2002 to defeat then Sen. Max Cleland of Georgia, the decorated triple-amputee Vietnam War veteran.

The latest NBC-Wall Street Journal poll, taken on the eve of Bush’s speech, indicates unusually intense interest in the midterms, and such intensity at this early point suggests a large Democratic turnout. Bush’s appeal that “our differences cannot be allowed to harden into anger” was an effort to soften his polarizing image. Meanwhile, evoking Sept. 11, as always, he demarcated who was and was not truly patriotic and entitled to speak up. At the low ebb of his presidency in public approval, he carefully orchestrated his biggest speech of the year to impose homogeneity, conformity and the stifling of “second-guessing.”

Bush’s intent to stigmatize opposition was exemplified by the absurd removal from the visitors gallery of the harmless and undisruptive antiwar Gold Star Families for Peace founder, Cindy Sheehan, who had been given a ticket to the speech by a Democratic member of Congress. Her offense was wearing a T-shirt embossed with the number of U.S. military killed in Iraq: “2245 Dead. How many more?” She is not quite Santayana (or Brent Scowcroft), but any questioning of the price and burden of war is sufficient to merit ejection from the president’s sight line.

Bush has entered his Brezhnev era of stagnation. Everything — from the latest five-year plan to the grandiose promise of world transformation — was repetitive and abstracted from grinding realities. His attempt to use the first year of his second term for permanent revolution at home, following Rove’s script, has failed. Social Security privatization is now whittled down to a commission, the sort of gambit employed when a leader lacks support. But diminished prospects did not dim his extravagant rhetoric.

“We seek the end of tyranny in our world,” Bush proclaimed. (In his 2005 State of the Union address, he pledged “the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.”) It would have demanded complicating “hindsight” to acknowledge that Hamas has attained power in Palestine; Hezbollah has greatly increased its influence in Lebanon; the Muslim Brotherhood has made unprecedented gains in Egypt; a Shiite extremist, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has become president of Iran; and theocratic Islamist Shiite factions aligned with Iran will govern Iraq, all through elections that no one has challenged as unfair (with the exception of those in Egypt). Just two days before Bush’s speech, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice admitted, “I don’t know anyone who wasn’t caught off guard by Hamas’ strong showing.” Of course, there had been many warnings issued by many serious people that fundamentalism is on the rise in the Middle East. Rice’s confession of deafness and blindness, however, did not prevent Bush from having his recurrent vision: Happy days are here again.

For every changed situation, he hoists tattered slogans. In Iraq, he said, “we are winning.” Just before his speech, the University of Maryland Program on International Policy Attitudes released a study of Iraqis, reporting that 47 percent overall and 88 percent of Sunnis approve of “attacks on U.S.-led forces,” and 80 percent want a timetable for U.S. withdrawal. In his speech, Bush did not define “winning.” He simply asserted the word as though the certitude with which he uttered it would bring about whatever it is he means by it.

On the Palestinian elections, in his press conference on Jan. 26, Bush’s first response to Hamas’ victory was to praise the election process: “I like the competition of ideas.” (The first idea articulated in Hamas’ charter: “Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it.”) But by ceasing the peace process in the face of the second intifada for more than a year after becoming president, humiliating Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas by refusing to meet with him on his first trip to Washington, and neglecting to give him any tangible progress to show to his people, Bush’s policies contributed to the overthrow of Palestinian moderates. In his State of the Union address, Bush urged Hamas to become something other than Hamas. If it fails to do so, he has no policy, the clueless approach already expressed by Rice.

On Iran, designated a member of the “axis of evil” in his 2002 State of the Union address, and currently developing its nuclear programs in defiance of the world community, Bush gropes for certainty. When he came into office he rejected diplomatic outreach to then President Mohammad Khatami and the so-called reform elements, and then rejected feelers from the Iranian mullahs for assistance in dealing with the Taliban and al-Qaida and for an overall settlement of U.S.-Iranian differences. He utterly miscalculated the increased influence of Iran as a consequence of the Iraq war. On the eve of the Iranian election last year, Bush denounced extremist candidate Ahmadinejad, predictably inciting support for him. Until 2005, Bush was reluctant to join the Europeans in containing Iran’s nuclear programs. Now, he has no practical military or economic options. Unilateral action is too implausible even to pretend as a possibility. Bush is reduced to describing the Iranian people who elected Ahmadinejad as being “held hostage” and to calling upon them to overthrow the regime. He has a scenario, but not yet a policy.

By his repeated denunciations of “radical Islam” in his speech, Bush cast his “war on terror” as a religious crusade, fitting exactly the perspective of al-Qaida and al-Qaida-like sects and providing the basic motivation for suicide terrorism as documented by University of Chicago scholar Robert Pape in his landmark study, “Dying to Win.” Bush appears more determined to enhance his stature in his own mind as a world historical hero battling barbarian hordes than to adopt careful language and strategy that might reduce and isolate radical Islamists.

With every phrase, Bush achieves the polar opposite of what he claims to intend. His orotund rhetoric about “freedom on the march,” “democracy,” “tyranny,” and “evil” undermines itself. What happens when “democracy” does not advance democracy and “freedom” is used to oppress? Bush’s refusal to accept paradox, that his good motives may have unintended consequences, leads him to reject “hindsight.” “Far from being a hopeless dream, the advance of freedom is the great story of our time,” Bush said in his speech. Rather than reassess his own actions that have made his goals ever more distant — “second-guessing” — he clings to his self-image as a warrior-savior. But Bush may have become such a universally tainted figure that almost anything he says, especially in the language of idealism, is now discredited.

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Sidney Blumenthal, a former assistant and senior advisor to President Clinton, writes a column for Salon and the Guardian of London. His new book is titled "How Bush Rules: Chronicles of a Radical Regime." He is a senior fellow at the New York University Center on Law and Security.

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