"The people in Washington are saying, 'The people in Massachusetts are a bunch of fuck-ups who couldn't run a race for dog catcher,'" said one veteran Massachusetts Democratic insider. "This is someone they handpicked, filled the coffers with millions and millions of dollars, made it their number one race, and the people who are up here running it with every resource you would ever want are getting killed."

The Boston Herald broke the story April 27 that Harvard touted Warren’s Indian ancestry, and it’s been downhill since for the Senate hopeful. A genealogist has suggested Warren is 1/32 Native American, although the campaign has not provided documents backing her claim. Warren spoke in one interview of grandparents with “high-cheekbones.”

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It was just over a month ago, of course, that Bay State voters turned back Martha Coakley, the state’s Democratic attorney general, in her bid to replace Ted Kennedy. When she originally jumped into that race, Coakley was the overwhelming favorite, both for her party’s nod and the general election – the result of her high job approval ratings and the state’s Democratic bent.

Similarly, Hutchison, who failed to even force Gov. Rick Perry into a run-off in Tuesday’s three-way gubernatorial primary, was the undisputed favorite when she launched her campaign last year.

The parallel collapses of Hutchison and Coakley serve as an important reminder about the dangers of complacency – and a warning for other seemingly-popular politicians about how toxic the pervading anti-establishment climate could be this November.

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It takes willful blindness to argue that Coakley's loss was chiefly the result of anything other than a crappy campaign. After winning the Democratic primary, "she took a vacation, pulled her ads and refrained from pressing the flesh," as Steve Kornacki wrote in Salon. Add to that growing insecurity and a fear of change among Americans, particularly independents, and the way Republicans were mobilized by early polls showing that Brown had a fighting chance, and his win seems not only understandable but predictable.

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Salon has rounded up some interesting reactions to Scott Brown's stunning victory in Massachusetts, and what it means for the year-old Obama presidency.

Rich Lowry, editor-in-chief of the National Review:

After the 2008 election, the Right was written off as stale, out-of-touch, bereft of political leadership -- with the assumption it would be that way for a long time. In McDonnell, Christie, Brown, we see just how short-sighted that critique was, and there will be more new talents coming up behind them in November. Of course, they have to succeed in governing, and have to hold the center. But '06 and '08 are looking more and more like a great cleansing that enabled a return to principles and new, fresher expressions of conservatism to emerge. Here's hoping it's just the beginning.

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Granted, that's a bit off from where some recent polls had Brown -- a few had his margin in or close to double digits, though they did get his share of the vote just about right; late deciders apparently broke for Coakley -- but that doesn't really matter. Any Republican victory in Massachusetts, not to mention one that involves a seat that was held by the Kennedy family (and one placeholder in between John F. Kennedy and Ted Kennedy) for more than 55 years, is a very big deal, regardless of pre-election polling.

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This is not the apocalypse for November. But if all the takeaways from this race are about the tactics, and whether Celinda Lake sucks or not, and Rahm Emanuel pissing on whether the signs are the right color or not, that spells disaster... It's not constructive in terms of, why are independents fleeing from us like we have the bubonic plague?

Nobody here is going to nominate Martha Coakley for campaign of the year. But there's something bigger here.

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The vote means moderates "aren't buying" what President Obama and Democrats are trying to pitch them? Check, courtesy of Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh. The vote means healthcare reform is dead? Check, thanks to Rep. Anthony Weiner. The vote means Democrats should try to be more like Republicans (and maybe turn into Republicans)? Yup, Joe Lieberman had that one covered, refusing to rule out a switch to the GOP in an interview on Fox News. The vote means Coakley is just a loser? Check, courtesy of, well, just about every Democrat in Washington.

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There was one portion, though, that was definitely not in Brown's prepared text: In referring to his daughters, who were on stage with him, he said that if anyone watching was wondering, "yes, they're both available." As if that weren't enough, considering how mortified both of them looked, he amended to say that one is in fact available and one isn't, and he was specific about it.

That bit was obviously an odder, flatter moment for Brown, but there was still plnety of red meat in the speech for the conservatives who'd turned out to celebrate his win. He made fun of President Obama's love of basketball, referred back to his pickup truck and went to some familiar Republican talking points about the issue on which he may make the most difference, healthcare reform.

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At the moment, with 40 percent of precincts reporting, Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley by seven percentage points, 53-46. Hopefuls on both sides are out there looking for glimmers of hope in the numbers from various precincts, and in the list of which precincts have reported and which haven't. But one expert thinks he's seen enough: Dave Wasserman, the U.S. House analyst for the Cook Political Report, said on Twitter not long ago, "Cook Report does NOT officially call races, but if I were working for a network I would have enough #s to project: Brown Wins."

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Results are now rolling in, however, and, barring some big surprises or snafus, we're likely to know the outcome within the next couple hours. War Room will be here to bring you all the news.

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The question, then, is what will happen once the results are official. If, as expected, Brown wins, Democrats will be down to 59 seats in the Senate, one short of being able to break a GOP filibuster on healthcare reform. That will, by itself, pose all sorts of challenges. But then there's the issue of where the party goes politically from here.

The White House seems to have its approach figured out: "President Barack Obama plans a combative response" in that case, Politico's Mike Allen reports. He quotes an unnamed presidential advisor as saying, "The response will not be to do incremental things and try to salvage a few seats in the fall. The best political route also happens to be the boldest rhetorical route, which is to go out and fight and let the chips fall where they may. We can say, ‘At least we fought for these things, and the Republicans said no.’"

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On Tuesday afternoon, with only a few hours left in the special election being held to replace Sen. Ted Kennedy, Democrat Martha Coakley's campaign held a press conference "to discuss reports threatening integrity of election." The subject, more specifically, was a few reports of two ballots that were handed out already marked for Republican Scott Brown.

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By the end of the week, that's likely to be about the only recrimination left unsaid by Democratic operatives, if Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley goes on to lose a race tonight for a Senate seat that Republicans hadn't held since 1952. The special election that could propel Scott Brown to Washington was only held, after all, because the state Legislature changed the way Senate vacancies are handled for fear that Kerry would win and move up to the White House -- leaving Massachusetts' Republican Gov. Mitt Romney to appoint someone else to fill the seat. (The Legislature changed the law again last summer, but only enough to let Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick appoint a temporary placeholder until Tuesday's election.) The way things were going Tuesday, soon enough Democrats will have blamed everyone else.

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WSJ: "Healthcare Stocks Push Dow Toward 15-Month High."

Bloomberg: "Stocks Rise in U.S. on Speculation Healthcare Reform will Fail."

Reuters: "Wall Street Rallies on Close Massachusetts Race."

What do all these stories have in common? Answer: The presumption that a victory in Massachusetts for Republican Scott Brown would spell death for healthcare reform, and that such a result would be good for the healthcare insurance industry.

Reuters:

Stocks rose broadly on Tuesday as investors scooped up healthcare shares on bets that a potential Republican victory in Massachusetts' Senate race could stall U.S. President Barack Obama's reforms and remove a threat to profits in the sector.

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This memo is a pack full of lies and fantasies - The DNC and the DSCC did everything they were asked and have been involved in the race for several weeks not just the last one -The campaign failed to recognize this threat, failed to keep Coakley on the campaign trail, failed to create a negative narrative about Brown, failed to stay on the air in December while he was running a brilliant campaign. It's wishful thinking from a pollster, candidate and campaign team that were caught napping and are going to allow one of the worst debacle in American political history to happen on their watch that they are at the 11th hour are going to blame others. Before the DNC and DSCC got involved there was barely a single piece of paper on what the narrative is on Brown. The candidate in this race and the campaign have been involved in the worst case of political malpractice in memory and they aren't going to be able to spin themselves out of this with a memo full of lies.

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There are some exceptions to the rule, of course. One could be in progress as we speak.

Turnout for the special Senate election being held in Massachusetts today is reportedly hitting surprisingly high levels, perhaps double the numbers seen in the primary and already almost equal to the 2006 midterm elections. That might be encouraging news for Democratic candidate Martha Coakley and her supporters, especially given the strong numbers in Boston, but there are reasons to think that the people coming to the polls are there to vote for her Republican opponent, Scott Brown.

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Donny Deutsch led off. "It's interesting, we've obviously had our first African-American president, we've had the female candidates and whatnot," Deutsch opined. "You look at him, and he looks like the real candidate, the traditional candidate. And is there a visceral comfort in that to people? I'm just curious." You tell us, Donny.

Mike Barnicle threw in his trademark sexism: "He looks like the high school football coach, who everybody knows, and he's running against the substitute teacher who takes no interest in her classroom students." (Yes, just the way Hillary Clinton reminded every man of his first wife. Stay classy, Mike Barnicle!)  Peggy Noonan greeted that with a loopy "Ha ha ha ha!" I kid you not, watch below.

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The Democratic nomination for Senate, ostensibly a plum spot in the country’s most liberal state, was won by state Attorney General Martha Coakley in a competitive December primary. Coakley had been elected statewide already, and had a strong reputation. She was exactly the kind of candidate who wins Senate races easily.

Meanwhile, the GOP overwhelmingly voted for Scott Brown, one of just five Republicans in the state Senate. It was clear from the start that he was a good candidate, but being a good candidate isn’t supposed to be enough for a Republican in Massachusetts.

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Polls can, and will, be wrong -- especially in the case of a special election, when the pollsters' first task becomes figuring out a sample that gives something close to an accurate picture of the electorate that will actually vote. And in this race, given how improbable the idea that a Republican -- a Republican! -- could take over for the last of the great Kennedys once seemed, the notion that things could suddenly shift in Democrat Martha Coakley's favor doesn't seem so wild.

That said, though, looking at the race right now, it seems very likely that Republican Scott Brown will win. In doing so, he will cut the Senate Democratic Caucus down to 59 members, and he may well doom healthcare reform, at least for this year.

If nothing else, here's what you need to know right now: FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver has spoken. And he, in his infinite, omniscient polling wisdom, sees a victory for Brown and the GOP. Brown is a 74 percent favorite to win the seat, according to Silver's model.

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Against that backdrop, it was fascinating to watch the president take time to preach Sunday morning (just hours before stumping for Coakley in Boston) at Vernon Avenue Baptist Church in Washington, D.C., the legendary black church that hosted Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. in December, 1956. I was surprised to see Obama lay out parallels between the struggles of King's movement, and his own.

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