Newt Gingrich says yes – but experts say there is no evidence to back up the assertion.

Gingrich made the claim at a debate with Jon Huntsman in New Hampshire on Monday.  Here, via Michael Crowley, is the key moment:

"They have huge underground facilities. Some of the underground facilities are under mosques," Gingrich said. "Some of them are in cities. The idea that you’re going to wage a bombing campaign that accurately takes out all the Iranian nuclear program I think is a fantasy."

That’s an extremely significant charge, one made by a man who now has a real shot at being the next president of the United States.

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Press coverage of nonproliferation in recent years has focused overwhelmingly on Iran. But this week in the Atlantic, Zack Roth took a broader look at the administration's progress since Obama's April 2009 Prague speech, finding that "many of those following weapons policy say Obama's effort to begin reshaping the U.S.'s own massive nuclear arsenal in light of the zero goal has proceeded far more slowly than expected."

Part of that picture is a plan to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on "modernizing" America's nuclear stockpile. But there have also been victories on the diplomatic front, including a new weapons reduction treaty with Russia.

Now is a good opportunity for an update on the perennially under-discussed topic of the weapons that could, in a single exchange, wipe out a sizable chunk of the human race. I spoke with Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington.

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The move comes just weeks after the International Atomic Energy Agency referred it the council for action that result in anything from debate to sanctions of the kind imposed on Iran for defying international demands to cease activities that could be used to make nuclear arms.

Sanctions are unlikely: Iran continues to expand its nuclear activities in defiance of the council, whereas Syria's alleged violations appeared to have occurred in the past and thus do not seem to represent a present proliferation threat.

Still, one of the three diplomats who agreed to discuss confidential information on condition of anonymity said the planned July 14 discussions are significant. He pointed to the fact that the council found the issue important enough to take it up less then a month after the June 9 IAEA referral.

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The democracy uprising in the Arab world has been a spectacular display of courage, dedication, and commitment by popular forces -- coinciding, fortuitously, with a remarkable uprising of tens of thousands in support of working people and democracy in Madison, Wisconsin, and other U.S. cities. If the trajectories of revolt in Cairo and Madison intersected, however, they were headed in opposite directions: in Cairo toward gaining elementary rights denied by the dictatorship, in Madison towards defending rights that had been won in long and hard struggles and are now under severe attack.

Each is a microcosm of tendencies in global society, following varied courses. There are sure to be far-reaching consequences of what is taking place both in the decaying industrial heartland of the richest and most powerful country in human history, and in what President Dwight Eisenhower called "the most strategically important area in the world" -- "a stupendous source of strategic power" and "probably the richest economic prize in the world in the field of foreign investment," in the words of the State Department in the 1940s, a prize that the U.S. intended to keep for itself and its allies in the unfolding New World Order of that day.

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When nuclear reactors blow, the first thing that melts down is the truth. Just as in the Chernobyl catastrophe almost 25 years ago when Soviet authorities denied the extent of radiation and downplayed the dire situation that was spiraling out of control, Japanese authorities spent the first week of the Fukushima crisis issuing conflicting and confusing reports. We were told that radiation levels were up, then down, then up, but nobody aside from those Japanese bureaucrats could verify the levels and few trusted their accuracy. The situation is under control, they told us, but workers are being evacuated. There is no danger of contamination, but stay inside and seal your doors.

The First Atomic Snow Job

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Seldom more than thrice annually did any layman or stranger travel the old road that passed the abbey, in spite of the oasis which permitted that abbey's existence and which would have made the monastery a natural inn for wayfarers if the road were not a road from nowhere, leading nowhere, in terms of the modes of travel in those times. Perhaps, in earlier ages, the road had been a portion of the shortest route from the Great Salt Lake to Old El Paso; south of the abbey it intersected a similar strip of broken stone that stretched east- and westward. The crossing was worn by time, but not by Man, of late.

I traveled that "old road" when it was still relatively new and heavily trafficked, and I was already a grown-up. I also traveled it when I was a teenager -- the version with "broken stone" -- through the blistered backlands of what had once been the American West, coming upon the "sports," the mutants, "the misborn" who, in those grim lands, sometimes looked upon human stragglers "as a dependable source of venison."

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Russia news agencies quote Sergei Ryabkov warning that a "qualitative and quantitative" buildup in the U.S. missile defense capability would prompt Moscow to consider whether it should abide by the New START treaty. Moscow has made similar warnings in the past.

The New START took effect last week. It limits each country to 1,550 strategic warheads, down from the current ceiling of 2,200.

NATO has approved a plan for a U.S.-led missile shield in Europe and invited Russia to join.

Russia's Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said Monday the shield is aimed at Russian nuclear forces.

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Russia's envoy to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, also has raised the specter of the 1986 reactor explosion in Ukraine, but suggested last week that the danger had passed.

The report, drawn up by a nation closely monitoring Iran's nuclear program and obtained by The Associated Press, said such conclusions were premature and based on the "casual assessment" of Russian and Iran scientists at Bushehr.

With control systems disabled by the virus, the reactor would have the force of a "small nuclear bomb," it said.

"The minimum possible damage would be a meltdown of the reactor," it says. "However, external damage and massive environmental destruction could also occur ... similar to the Chernobyl disaster."

The virus, known as Stuxnet, has the ability to send centrifuges spinning out of control and temporarily crippled Iran's uranium enrichment program. It is believed to have been the work of Israel or the United States, two nations convinced that Iran wants to turn nuclear fuel into weapons-grade uranium

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The Associated Press reported the invitation to tour the facilities on Monday, citing a letter from a senior Iranian envoy that suggested Jan. 15-16 for the visit. A diplomat familiar with the letter said Iran invited Russia, China, Egypt, the group of nonaligned nations at the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency, Cuba, Arab League members at the IAEA, and Hungary, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency.

Iran's economy appears to be struggling under the weight of four rounds of international sanctions over its nuclear program, which the West suspects is aimed at producing weapons though Tehran denies that. Iran returned last month to nuclear talks with the so-called 5+1 countries -- the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China, plus Germany -- which hold sway over the sanctions. And the invitation to visit nuclear sites may also be a sign that Tehran is looking for ways to ease its financial pain.

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An official familiar with the operation said Wednesday the waste included 13 kilograms (28.66 pounds) of uranium enriched at a level close to that used to make nuclear warheads.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, who coordinated the project, said 2.5 metric tons (2.76 tons) of the spent fuel arrived Wednesday at a secure Russian facility from Serbia's Vinca reactor.

An IAEA statement said the amount is the largest single shipment of its kind so far repatriated under an international program to return such material.

The agency said it took more than a month for the shipment to reach the Russian reprocessing facility.

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The vote was 71-26, more than the two-thirds of those present and voting required for approval.

The treaty would cap nuclear warheads for both countries and resume onsite inspections that expired a year ago.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Senate is voting on a major arms pact with Russia with ratification likely.

Passage would hand President Barack Obama a huge victory on his top foreign policy priority.

The treaty would limit each country's strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550, down from the current ceiling of 2,200. It also would establish a system for monitoring and verification.

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The vote was 67-28 and was seen in part as a proxy vote for the final tally. President Barack Obama considers the treaty his top foreign policy priority in the postelection Congress.

Almost a dozen Republicans joined all the Democrats in calling for an end to the debate. Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton were at the Capitol lobbying lawmakers.

Earlier in the day, Obama locked up the votes for ratification of the treaty as at least 10 Republicans said they would back the accord. A final vote is likely on Wednesday.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama locked up enough Republican votes on Tuesday to secure Senate ratification of a new arms control treaty with Russia that would give him a foreign policy victory to top his postelection political wins.

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The South Carolina senator fancies himself the authority on when bills should be considered, how long the amendment process should last, how many days of debate they should receive, and when it is politically "safe" to finally vote on the damn things. (Usually later. No matter the bill, it will usually be safe to actually hold a vote later.)

His tantalizing promise: If you listen to him, your bill will magically become bipartisan! What always happens, though, is that someone screws up -- says the wrong thing to Roll Call, schedules a procedural vote on the wrong day, decides to actually hold a vote instead of waiting forever -- and then Lindsey Graham gets mad and promises that nothing will ever be accomplished in the Senate again.

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By a vote of 64-33, the Senate rejected a measure that would have increased the number of weapons inspectors. If adopted, the amendment would have effectively killed the treaty, forcing U.S. and Russian officials back to negotiations.

Eight Republicans voted against the amendment.

By a vote of 64-33, the Senate also rejected an amendment to increase the number of deployed launchers. The measure would have had the same impact on the treaty.

Democrats have managed to beat back four GOP amendments to the treaty. Earlier Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (SEHR'-gay LAHV'-rahf) had warned against any changes to the treaty.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

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President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gave no explanation for the change in a brief statement on his website. But the fired diplomat, Manouchehr Mottaki, is seen as close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. And the president may be aiming to install a figure more personally loyal to himself as Tehran resumes critical talks with world powers over the nuclear program that has brought four rounds of U.N. sanctions on Iran.

The nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, is one of Ahmadinejad's 12 vice presidents.

"This move shows not only the internal tensions but the primacy of the nuclear issue as Iran's main foreign policy objective," said Rasool Nafisi, an expert on Iranian affairs at Strayer University in Virginia.

Just a week before the shake-up, Iran resumed negotiations with six world powers over its suspect nuclear program after a long hiatus and another round is planned for early next year. Four sets of U.N. sanctions appear to be biting into the Iranian economy and Ahmadinejad may be looking for a loyal foreign minister who will help him clinch a deal with the six powers to ease the punitive measures.

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So we thought this was as good a time as any to look at the remarkable history of incorrect Israeli predictions about Iran -- especially given that the WikiLeaks trove is being used to argue that an attack on Iran is becoming more likely.

According to various Israeli government predictions over the years, Iran was going to have a bomb by the mid-90s -- or 1998, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, and finally 2010. More recent Israeli predictions have put that date at 2011 or 2014.

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Iran has previously denied the Stuxnet worm, which experts say is calibrated to destroy centrifuges, had caused any damage, saying they uncovered it before it could have any effect.

But President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said it "managed to create problems for a limited number of our centrifuges." Speaking to a press conference Monday, he said the problems were resolved.

Earlier in November, U.N. inspectors found Iran's enrichment program temporarily shut down, according to a recent report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog. The extent and cause of the shutdown were not known, but speculation fell on Stuxnet.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Assailants on motorcycles attached magnetized bombs to the cars of two nuclear scientists in Tehran on Monday, killing one and wounding another who is on a U.N. sanctions list for suspect activity. The president accused Israel and the West of being behind the attacks.

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The diplomats said they had no specifics on the nature of the problem that in recent months led Iranian experts to briefly power down the machines they use for enrichment -- a nuclear technology that has both civilian and military uses.

But suspicions focused on the Stuxnet worm, the computer virus thought to be aimed at Iran's nuclear program, which experts last week identified as being calibrated to destroy centrifuges by sending them spinning out of control.

Iran says its enrichment efforts are geared only to make nuclear fuel but the program has aroused international concerns because it can be re-engineered to produce uranium for nuclear warheads.

But, there have been hints that the program is beset by technical problems. Even a brief shutdown of the thousands of enriching machines would be the strongest documentation to date that the program -- Iran's nuclear cornerstone and a source of national pride -- is in trouble.

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The Energy Department's assistant inspector general, Sandra D. Bruce, said her office reviewed 16 alcohol-related incidents involving agents, candidate-agents and others from the government's Office of Secure Transportation between 2007 through 2009. A new report Monday said the incidents "indicate a potential vulnerability" in what it described as a "critical national security mission."

There are nearly 600 federal agents who ship nuclear weapons, weapon components and special nuclear material across the U.S. The report said when agents drank overnight after checking into local hotels, their trucks were in "safe harbor" status.

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