Osama Bin Laden

Is bin Laden a terrorist mastermind — or a fall guy?

When you get past the vague claims of anonymous 'intelligence sources,' the Clinton administration is asking the public to accept on faith its claim that Osama bin Laden is an evil Islamic Dr. No.

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“Our target was terror. Our mission was clear.”
– President Clinton, Aug. 20, 1998

To the litany of terrorist acts that President Clinton laid at the feet of renegade Saudi millionaire Osama bin Laden in justification of his cruise missile attacks on Afghanistan and the Sudan last week, the administration has now alleged a murky plot to assassinate the president as well.

The alleged plot against Clinton was to have taken place when he was to have visited Pakistan. The anonymous intelligence sources that have made such an industry in bin Laden revelations this week acknowledge that the plot never went beyond the coffee-shop talking stage.

But the charge helped to reinforce the president’s claims that bin Laden is “perhaps the preeminent organizer and financier of international terrorism in the world today,” and that there was “compelling” — if unrevealable — evidence that a network of terrorist groups he controlled was planning “further attacks against Americans and other freedom-loving groups.”

At a time when presidential veracity is at an all-time low, one might have wished that the president and his national security advisors had laid out in detail just what was the “compelling evidence” that led the United States to launch some 75 missiles at two sovereign nations.

As it is, the public, both here in the United States and in the more critical world at large, is being asked to take a giant Kierkegaardian leap of faith in the president’s claims. Given Clinton’s recent track record in the “trust me” department, this is a lot to demand.

For while there is little doubt that bin Laden is a sworn enemy of the United States with the financial means to put some teeth in that enmity, his exact role in anti-American terrorism is unclear. The administration’s claims are based more on conjecture — mostly bin Laden’s own braggadocio and the bad company he apparently keeps — than hard and convincing evidence.

Clinton and his security staff have now blamed bin Laden for being behind almost every terrorist act in the past decade — from plotting the assassinations of the pope and the president of Egypt to the planned bombing of six U.S. jumbo jets over the Pacific, with massacres of German tourists at Luxor and the killings of U.S. troops in Somalia, fatal car bombings of U.S. military personnel in Saudi Arabia and this month’s truck bombings of the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam thrown in. Not since the ’70s heyday of the terrorist Carlos has there been such a Prince of Darkness, if the allegations are to be believed.

But so far, for all of the accusations, no government, not even that of the United States, has established enough credible evidence against bin Laden to conclusively prove his direct participation in, much less leadership of, any of the ugly plots and acts he stands accused of. To date no formal request for his extradition has ever been made, either to the Sudanese government that once housed him or to his current hosts, Afghanistan’s Taliban leaders.

Though it was suddenly leaked this week that a federal grand jury’s continuing investigation into the World Trade Center bombing in New York City in 1993 had belatedly handed up a sealed indictment against bin Laden in June, the indictment is understood to be only for “sedition,” that is, incitement to violence, not the violence itself. That is the same charge under which the Unites States previously convicted Egyptian cleric Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman, the Trade Center bomber’s spiritual leader.

The only link between bin Laden and the World Trade Center bombing seems to be the fact that the mastermind of the bombing, Ramzi Ahmed Yousef, was eventually detained by U.S. agents while living in a guest house in Pakistan reportedly rented by bin Laden. The Saudi was also implicated in a failed 1994 plan to blow up American jumbo jets over the Pacific because the plot mastermind, Wali Khan Amin Shah, reportedly was a “close friend” of bin Laden’s.

If bin Laden’s fingerprints were to be found on any terrorist acts of the last decade, they should have been on the two attacks against U.S. military personnel carried out in the years when he was still living in his Saudi Arabian homeland. Bin Laden, a wealthy Saudi engineering graduate who became a radical Muslim after joining the war against Russia’s occupation of Afghanistan in 1979, became virulently anti-American after U.S. troops were stationed in Saudi Arabia during the 1991 Gulf War.

To him the American presence in Saudi Arabia, home of the holy Islamic sites Mecca and Medina, is a sacrilege he has vowed to reverse, along with toppling the “corrupt” Saudi royal family that has allowed it. Thus, when a car bomb exploded at a Saudi National Guard office in Riyadh in 1995, killing five Americans, and another blew up at the Khobar Towers Barracks in Dhahran a year later, killing another 19, bin Laden seemed the most likely suspect.

But neither the FBI, the CIA nor the Saudi intelligence services has ever been able to establish bin Laden’s links to those crimes after years of trying. What evidence that has emerged from those ongoing investigations points the finger at dissident Saudi Shiites, perhaps with the logistic support of the Lebanese Hezbollah organization, or even Iran.

Though much has been made of the fact that from his safe-houses in Afghanistan bin Laden has forged a loose alliance with perhaps a dozen different Islamic groups in the Muslim world from Algeria to Bangladesh, he seems to be more of a spiritual leader and financier than the sort of terrorist mastermind being alleged.

“Bin Laden is a true believer and a funder of Islamic causes, rather than a planner and active participant,” says Professor Shibley Telhani, a Middle East scholar from the University of Maryland who has followed his career. “His real influence is not as a mastermind of terrorism but as a person who is using a personal fortune to encourage others to wage war against the American interests in the Middle East he finds so objectionable.”

Indeed the sealed federal indictment just handed up, it would appear, is not based on any evidence directly linking him to either of those plots or others. Instead, it seems to have been motivated by a public call to arms against Americans that bin Laden published in the London Arabic newspaper Al-Quds al-Arabi last February. Issued as an Islamic Fatwa, or holy order, even though bin Laden has no religious authority whatsoever, the broadside by bin Laden and other signers from various Islamic groups called for Muslims to “kill Americans and their allies, civilians and military” wherever they find them.

These are strong words indeed. But they are words, not deeds. And though it is all too likely that those words have inspired others to such actions as the bombings of the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam last month, bin Laden himself is unlikely to have personally ordered those bombings or carried them out.

Unless the Clinton administration can come up with some hard evidence that bin Laden is in fact calling the shots of a vast new anti-American terrorist network, all the present allegations and faceless intelligence-source leaks claiming facts too secret and explosive to be revealed should be taken with a grain of salt.

Bin Laden may be a dangerous anti-American zealot with a mouth as big as his bankroll. But the evidence so far does not support him being a cerebral Islamic Dr. No moving an army of terrorist troops on a vast world chessboard to checkmate the United States.

Loren Jenkins is the foreign editor of National Public Radio. He last wrote for Salon on the new relations between the United States and Iran.

How to turn a criminal to a hero

The U.S. attacks on Osama bin Laden have transformed him into a local hero.

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WASHINGTON — In the wake of the U.S. cruise-missile attacks against Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan and Sudan, a predictable wave of anti-American fervor is sweeping the Middle East and the Muslim world. What is unusual is that the anger is coming from political moderates who loathe bin Laden and his brand of violent Islamic fundamentalism as much as the United States does.

Behind the images of angry mobs burning effigies of President Clinton is a vast hinterland of outrage and reluctant sympathy for bin Laden, populated not only by the poor and disenfranchised but also by articulate middle-class Arabs and Muslims who have the most to lose from the challenges posed by the wealthy Saudi-turned-Islamic warrior.

Railing for the removal of American forces from the Persian Gulf and a return by Middle Eastern governments to strict Islamic law and values, fundamentalists like bin Laden are widely regarded by Arab moderates as threats to the stability of their societies. To illustrate the consequences of bin Laden’s vision, moderates point to the civil war in Algeria, where fighting between militant Muslims and government troops over the past five years has left at least 80,000 dead. In Egypt, where Islamic militants have attacked tourists and intellectuals and tried to assassinate President Hosni Mubarak, there is broad support among middle-class Egyptians for the government’s crackdown on violent fundamentalist groups.

Yet in response to the American attacks on bin Laden, Sanaa Al Said, a columnist for the Egyptian newspaper Al Wafd, wrote: “Overnight, the man has been transformed from an outlawed criminal on the run into a national hero standing against a hated superpower … which has come to our region and wreaked its own havoc here … Changes are on the way. U.S. hegemony will, one day, come to an end, and then the world will breathe more freely.”

Moderate Arab governments, many of them U.S. allies with terrorist problems of their own, have studiously kept quiet about the attack. But in their silence, other Arab commentators have echoed the same themes as Al Said: America’s clumsiness in dealing with bin Laden, its double standard when dealing with Israeli violence and its tendency to use force and embargoes when dealing with Arabs and Muslims. While such sentiments have long formed the core of Arab intellectual thought, the American attack has brought this anger to the surface, where it is likely to influence government leaders — and future U.S. policy.

“Among the Arab and Muslim middle classes, there is a lot of resentment toward U.S. policies, toward the status quo; and tremendous frustration that their governments can’t do anything,” says Shibley Telhami, a professor of Middle Eastern affairs at the University of Maryland. “Therefore someone like bin Laden, who challenges the status quo, is seen by the middle classes as a sympathetic figure, even if they don’t like him or his agenda.”

Resentment toward America by Arab elites also has become personal. Outside
American media circles, perhaps the biggest supporters of the “Wag the Dog”
interpretation of the U.S. attack — that Clinton struck to deflect attention
from the Monica Lewinsky sex scandal — are Arab writers, journalists and
intellectuals. In the Arab world, this interpretation flows logically from an
earlier conspiracy theory about the scandal, which holds that Lewinsky, who is
Jewish, was part of a plot hatched by Israel and its American Jewish
supporters to cripple Clinton’s ability to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu.

Telhami, who also writes a weekly commentary for the Arabic-language Radio
Monte Carlo, says he spends much of his efforts trying to convince Arab
intellectuals that such conspiracy theories are overheated fantasies. But from
the vantage point of the Middle East, he notes, it is difficult for Arabs to
view Clinton’s strike against bin Laden in isolation from the other components
making up America’s Middle East policy.

In addition to Clinton’s reluctance to confront Israel’s excesses, he says,
“Arabs look at the region and they see four countries — Iran, Iraq, Libya and
Sudan — under severe international sanctions that are U.S.-led and
unprecedented in [the] history of international relations. They see five Middle
Eastern countries [same as above, plus Syria] listed as sponsors of terrorism,
and they see American forces based on the territories of eight countries in
the region.” (Those eight are Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Egypt, UAE and Oman.)

“So while conspiracy theories are crazy, there are still some objective
reasons why people think that the U.S. is targeting them. And they make a lot
of stories out of it,” he says.

Another chord that bin Laden has struck among Arab elites is their
nervousness about the phenomenon of globalization, which many view as a
thinly veiled attempt by the U.S. to Americanize the world by
expanding global markets and then filling its shelves with American products,
ideas and expectations. At a recent conference on globalization in Asilah,
Morocco, speaker after speaker from the Arab world portrayed globalization as
a new form of American imperialism, destined to gobble up their economies and
societies and incorporate them into a global landscape defined by McDonald’s,
the Internet and Bruce Willis movies.

“This globalization is a raging torrent that’s going to wash away our borders,
our cultures and our identities,” warned Mamoun Fandy, an Egyptian who
teaches Middle East politics at Georgetown University. It is worth noting that
Fandy’s concerns are not that different from the warnings against American
imperialism issued by bin Laden himself.

With the Arab and Muslim worlds in an uproar over the U.S. attack, the
question now is what affect this anger will have on Middle East governments
and, by extension, U.S. policy in the region.

Some maintain that the outrage of the Arab elites doesn’t really matter at
all. These observers note that with the exception of the fall of the Iranian
shah, the authoritarian governments of the Middle East have learned how to
deal with popular unrest and know how to balance their need for survival
against their need for the United States. Others believe that the deep
resentments unleashed by the American attack eventually will destabilize the
regimes of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other pro-American countries.

“The truth is always in the middle,” Telhami says, “and the truth is this:
What’s happening isn’t going to immediately threaten the Saudi regime or the
Egyptian regime. But it’s going to limit their options. It means that when the
United States faces a crisis with Iraq in the next few weeks, where the use of
force will be contemplated, the chances that the U.S. will get any cooperation
from Muslim and Arab countries will have diminished dramatically as a
consequence of this. The same applies to any coalition coming together around
the issue of terrorism.”

Many analysts of the region say the only way the United States can avoid that
lonely scenario is by addressing moderate Arab concerns. That means not only
punishing enemies like bin Laden and Saddam Hussein, but also pushing Israel
harder on the peace process and encouraging moderates in Iran. And it means
demonstrating that globalization includes benefits for Arabs that go beyond
Big Macs and cyberporn.

Just as the U.S. cruise missiles sent an unmistakable message to bin Laden,
Arab moderates appear to be sending a message to President Clinton. That
message says the moderates don’t like bin Laden any more than the Americans
do. But it also warns that the societies of the region are fragile and could
fracture as a result of one-dimensional American policies. If that happens,
they seem to be saying, President Clinton’s new war against terror could
become a clash of civilizations.

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Jonathan Broder is Salon's Washington correspondent.

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