The measure, which Toomey, R-Penn., introduced with Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., was five votes short of the 60 needed to break a Republican filibuster of the bill.

Though a few Democrats also voted against the bill, Toomey blamed the measure's failure on the politicization of the Republican Party. “In the end it didn’t pass because we’re so politicized," he said. "There were some on my side who did not want to be seen helping the president do something he wanted to get done, just because the president wanted to do it."

Continue Reading...

From Gallup:

Prior to the Senate's failure to pass the measure, numerous polls showed that roughly nine in 10 Americans favor expanded gun background checks in concept -- a fact that a number of journalists, columnists, and politicians made note of. Gallup's Jan. 19-20 survey, for example, showed that 91% of Americans said they personally would vote for a measure requiring criminal background checks for all gun sales. Gallup asked this question again in the April 22-25 survey and found a slight decline, to 83% support. The wording of the new question was slightly modified from the January asking, which may be responsible for some of the change. But it also may be that the Senate's failure to pass the measure deflated Americans' support for it.

Continue Reading...

From the poll:

Pennsylvania voters approve 34 - 29 percent of the way U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey is handling gun control and give Sen. Toomey an overall 48 - 30 percent approval rating, his highest ever. By a 54 - 12 percent margin, voters think more favorably of Toomey because of his co-sponsorship of legislation to require expanded background checks.

Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., on the other hand, is suffering, in part because of her vote against background checks. A poll earlier this week from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling showed Ayotte's approval rating tank by 15 points since October.

Continue Reading...

"We will not get the votes today," Manchin, D-W. Va., told NBC News' Kelly O'Donnell, though added that they would try again.

From NBC News:

Potential supporters, Republican Sens. Jeff Flake, of Arizona, and Florida’s Marco Rubio, could not risk a stand on background checks in the face of opposition from their conservative base because they are already leading on immigration, Manchin said.

Sources also told NBC News that the effort’s proponents are 4 to 5 votes short, a gulf that could widen if Democrats in conservative states decide not to support the measure.

The Senate is set to hold nine total votes on gun control measures on Wednesday, including Manchin and Toomey's proposal, an assault weapons ban and a ban on high-capacity magazines, all of which are expected to fail.

Continue Reading...

From the Washington Post:

In an effort to win the support of some undecided rural-state senators, Manchin and Toomey were discussing the possibility Monday of adding language that would exempt select far-flung communities in Alaska and North Dakota from some background check requirements, according to Senate aides familiar with the talks. Such exceptions could help win the support of Alaska’s senators Mark Begich (D) and Lisa Murkowski (R) and North Dakota Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, a moderate with an A-rating from the NRA.

The New York Times reports that the measure is seeing reluctance from both Democrats and Republicans, despite the fact that it is primarily being pushed by Manchin, a Democrat, and Toomey, a Republican, both of whom are A-rated by the NRA.

Continue Reading...

The New York Times reports:

Senator Mark Begich, Democrat of Alaska, says he will vote against the measure, and at least three other Democrats are expected to join him in trying to defeat it, including Heidi Heitkamp, a freshman senator from North Dakota. Some left-leaning Democrats may also balk because of the gun-rights provisions that have been added to the bill to entice Republicans.

Among the 16 Republicans who joined 50 Democrats and two independents in voting last week to proceed to consideration of gun legislation, roughly seven have already decided not to support the measure. Another half-dozen Republicans who voted to proceed on the bill remain ambivalent.

Continue Reading...

Meredith Shiner of Roll Call reports:

Toomey, the former Club for Growth president, had told Manchin he would not speak at the news conference if he had to get on stage with Schumer, according to two sources familiar with the talks. Schumer obliged, and Kirk also agreed not to appear in order to provide cover to Schumer.

“Manchin and Toomey are the best people to sell this agreement to the pro-gun community, and Schumer doesn’t want to get in the way of that. His job is to persuade the gun safety groups that it’s an acceptable deal,” a Democratic aide said of the group’s dynamic.

According to Shiner, there were fears on both sides of the aisle that Schumer would become the senator most closely associated with the bill, which would hurt the bill's chances of pulling in conservative support.

Continue Reading...

From the Washington Post:

The proposed agreement would be more stringent than current law, which requires checks only when purchases are made through a licensed dealer, but less than originally sought by President Obama and congressional Democrats, who were seeking to expand background checks to nearly every kind of sale.

The agreement should secure enough bipartisan support for the Senate to proceed to debate on an overarching bill that would expand background checks, make gun trafficking a federal crime for the first time and bolster federal funding for school security plans. Senate Democratic leaders have said they will permit senators of both parties to introduce amendments to the measure.

Continue Reading...

After a fruitless campaign to win the endorsement of Oklahoma Republican Sen. Tom Coburn, Democrats turned their attention to Toomey, hoping his co-sponsorship of a gun control package will give moderates of both parties political cover they need to vote for the bill.

In 1999, after the Columbine school shooting, the Senate passed a bill to close the gun show loophole, but the House killed it. Toomey, then in the lower chamber, voted for the GOP alternative to the Senate bill that would have expanded background checks to all sales at gun shows, but lowered the time required from a check to 24 hours from the three days favored by Democrats.

Continue Reading...

From the Washington Post:

Manchin and Toomey are developing a measure to require background checks for all gun purchases except sales between close family members and some hunters, which addresses concerns of some conservatives, according to the aides, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk publicly about the talks.

Spokesmen for Manchin and Toomey said only that the senators are talking to many of their colleagues about gun legislation and could not confirm details of their discussions.

Both senators have received A-ratings from the NRA.

Manchin has been involved in talks for a gun control deal for several weeks, along with Sens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Mark Kirk, R-Ill., and Tom Coburn, R-Okla. But the talks recently hit a roadblock over Coburn's opposition to keeping records of private gun sales.

Continue Reading...

“They are welcome to support the likes of Arlen Specter, Charlie Crist and David Dewhurst,” Barney Keller, the spokesman for the Club for Growth, told Politico on Sunday.  “We will continue to proudly support the likes of Pat Toomey, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.”

This points to an open question about the new Rove effort, which is being called the Conservative Victory Project: What criteria will it use to determine who is and isn’t electable?

Continue Reading...

Toomey reasons that Geithner has the freedom to pick and choose what debts the U.S. should pay. Since just about everyone agrees that defaulting on bond payments would precipitate a major international economic crisis, possibly kicking of another recession, and end the dollar's preeminent status as the world's preferred reserve currency, Toomey believes that Geithner should simply choose to pay those debts first and stiff other creditors, like, for example, Americans getting unemployment benefits or Social Security checks.

From The Hill:

Continue Reading...

The survey shows Sestak may be the best hope for Democrats if they want to hold onto the seat in November. Republican nominee Pat Toomey beats Specter 50-38 percent in the poll, but is only ahead of Sestak 42-40.

Which, if voters buy the findings, could undercut one of the main reasons to vote for Specter in the first place. Remember, this is a guy who was a Republican himself until a year ago, when he decided Toomey would beat him for the GOP nomination. But if Democrats think Specter will just lose anyway in the fall, why not take a shot on Sestak? They may not know him as well, but at least he was a Democrat last time he ran.

Continue Reading...

But now I have a better answer: Gun nuts are the folks sponsoring "LiveFreePA," a fun-filled gathering May 8 where participants can shoot their guns at old cars that represent bad liberal ideas like gun control, healthcare reform and property taxes, as well as taxes and regulations on tobacco and alcohol (h/t BuzzFlash).

"It's just a unique way to say we're against these policies -- shooting them down," organizer Nate Benefield told a Lancaster paper. "I don't really know where we came up with it, but it seemed appropriate." "Appropriate" isn't the word I'd choose, but hey, it's a free country.

Continue Reading...

Well, not really. Actually, ever since he changed parties for fear of what would happen to him at the hands of conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey in a Republican primary, he's been in a precarious position. For a while, polls showed him doing well as a Democrat against Toomey, but the numbers started turning over the summer. According to RealClearPolitics, every poll of the race that's been taken this year showed Toomey leading by at least nine percentage points.

But on Tuesday, Quinnipiac released a new survey that shows Specter leading his Republican opponent by seven percentage points, 49-42. (The margin of error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.) Quinnipiac's last poll, conducted in December, showed the two men tied; before that, the pollster had Toomey up by a point.

Continue Reading...

A new poll from Susquehanna Polling and Research casts real doubt on Specter's ability to hold on to his seat next year. Only 31 percent of respondents said they believe he should be re-elected, and 59 percent want someone else to take the job. Jim Lee, president of the pollster, calls the former number "near fatal."

Continue Reading...

After the senator's decision to switch parties and become a Democrat, Republicans were pushing former Gov. Tom Ridge to run against him in 2010, and according to early polling, Ridge would have proven a formidable opponent. But on Thursday, Ridge announced that he's decided against throwing his hat in the ring.

Ridge's decision means that former Rep Pat Toomey, R-Pa., a conservative favorite whose entry in to the Republican primary was the key in driving Specter to the Democratic Party, might not face a seriouis opponent in his quest for his party's nomination. That's good news for conservatives, but probably bad news for the GOP generally.

Though Toomey would almost certainly have beaten Specter in a primary, polls show him trailing badly in the general. There's still plenty of time for him to make up that difference, of course, but Pennsylvania has gotten bluer and bluer in recent years, and it will be very hard for a virtually unknown conservative to beat a moderate who also has the advantage of incumbency.

Continue Reading...

There are still two things that might put a damper on the good news for Specter, however. First, there's still the possibility that he'll face a Democratic primary challenger. It seems unlikely that such a challenger would be able to get real momentum going, as the Democratic establishment -- from President Obama and Vice President Biden to Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell -- will throw its weight behind the incumbent. But there is still that possibility, and there is precedent for a Democratic primary challenger to come out on top even when opposed by the party machine (see Lamont, Ned).

Then there's the prospect that former Gov. Tom Ridge will jump in the race for the Republican nomination. There have been rumors that the GOP will encourage him to do just that, and though conservative activists would oppose any attempt to give Toomey a challenger, a little strategic thinking would show them that's the wrong way to go about this. The Quinnipiac poll has Specter ahead of Ridge, but only barely -- Specter gets 46 percent of respondents' votes, compared to Ridge's 43 percent.

Continue Reading...

No, what finally shoved Specter out of the Republican Party and into the waiting arms of Senate Democrats on Tuesday was something a bit more pragmatic. "I got my own poll results back last Friday -- late last week, and consulted with my campaign managers," Specter told reporters matter-of-factly in the Capitol, a couple of hours after he said goodbye to the GOP. He didn't say exactly what that poll showed, but it couldn't have had good news about his primary battle against die-hard conservative Pat Toomey, a refugee from the anti-tax jihadist Club for Growth. As soon as Specter made his move, the polling firm that had done the survey for him, Public Opinion Strategies, quit (and pollster Glen Bolger posted an ode to beer and crazy people on his Twitter feed).

Continue Reading...

To some extent, Specter was pushed in to his decision by his fellow Republicans and by former Rep. Pat Toomey's decision to mount a primary challenge against him. If he wanted to continue his political career, Specter had little choice but to bolt the GOP. There seemed to be little chance he could survive an attack on his right flank, and if he did make it to the general election, the positions he'd have to have taken to get that far might very well have doomed him.

Here's Specter's full statement on his decision, in which he essentially says -- to borrow an old cliché typically used on the other side of the aisle -- that the Republican Party left him, and not the other way around:

Continue Reading...