Science Fiction and Fantasy
Robert Harris’ sci-fi thriller, ripped from the business headlines
A hedge fund's efforts to generate huge profits backfires in Robert Harris' "The Fear Index." Wait, this is fiction
(Credit: Dr. Jost Hindersmann) Most thrillers do not send me hustling off to Wikipedia for a refresher course in the Stoic philosophy of the first century A.D. Greek sage Epictetus. But that’s where I found myself before commencing this review of “The Fear Index,” by Robert Harris. I wanted to be sure I was properly grounded before straying into treacherous territory: the nature of being in our phantasmagorical high-finance, high-tech era.
I certainly had no time to brush up while actually reading the novel. “The Fear Index” is a perfect exemplar of the species “taut thriller.” It’s a book whose pages cannot be turned fast enough; a mystery with just a dash of science fiction and plot twists ripped from the business news headlines of the past year. Beware taking this book to bed with you, because you will stay up too late. (And your dreams will be queasy.)
But in the haste to turn those pages lies a danger: the chance that you might miss how surprisingly profound “The Fear Index” is, in its contemplation of modern financial markets and the “digitalization” of modern life. With his previous novelistic excursions to ancient Rome (“Pompeii,” “Imperium”), and reimaginings of history (“Fatherland” — set in a Germany where Hitler won World War II), Robert Harris long ago proved himself capable of mixing high intelligence with action and a swiftly moving movie-script-ready plot. “The Fear Index” takes his game to the next level: It is a riveting meditation on the reality of now, complete with a trail of bodies and streaks of madness — both algorithmic and human.
Which brings us back to Epictetus. The heart of “The Fear Index” is the story of how a hedge fund’s attempts to generate unprecedentedly huge financial returns from stock market bets executed by a super-smart computer program go horribly wrong. (Sound familiar? Didn’t we just live through that?) The program is the brainchild of physicist Alexander Hoffmann, and the key to its successful operation is its ability to sniff out traces of fear in the markets. Where there’s fear, there’s volatility, and where’s there volatility, there is the opportunity to cash in.
About a third of the way through the novel, Hoffmann explains to a group of prospective investors (the 1 percent of the global 1 percent!) that the times are ripe for a trading strategy based on fear, because contemporary society has never been so fearful, a fact for which we can blame our online, networked lives.
“Our conclusion is that digitalization itself is creating an epidemic of fear, and that Epictetus had it right: we live in a world not of real things but of opinion and fantasy. The rise in market volatility, in our opinion, is a function of digitalization, which is exaggerating human mood swings by the unprecedented dissemination of information via the Internet.”
Epictetus nailed it. The mood-swingingness of our universe is a truth apparent to anyone who follows the zigs and zags of modern financial markets (or the Republican primary race, for that matter). Computer-driven trading strategies are not reacting to fundamental economic realities; they’re bouncing out buy and sell orders every nanosecond based on price shifts that are themselves generated by emotional reactions to news headlines. A German foreign minister says something nasty about Greece, and markets plunge as London, New York and Shanghai all freak out. Moments later, a soothing press from a central banker sends prices skyrocketing again.
It’s a crazy way to run an economy. And it’s not fiction. Harris underlines this point by interpolating into the plot actual testimony before Congress by current Securities Exchange Commission Chairwoman Mary Schapiro explaining the notorious “Flash Crash” of May 2010. On May 6, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 1,000 points in a matter of minutes before suddenly rebounding. Computers were largely to blame. More such shenanigans are on the way! It’s a sign of how murky our digitally mediated markets are now, how inscrutable to human understanding, that science fiction offers just about as good an explanation of what is going on at the New York Stock Exchange as do the most highly paid market analysts.
Epictetus had it easy. We are no longer capable of understanding what we have wrought. That’s a job only the algorithm can do.
More from Hoffmann:
“When Hugo and I started this fund, the data we used was entirely digitalized financial statistics: there was almost nothing else. But over the past couple of years a whole new galaxy of information has come within our reach. Pretty soon all the information in the world — every tiny scrap of knowledge that humans possess, every little thought we’ve ever had that’s been considered worth preserving over thousands of years — all of it will be available digitally. Every road on earth has been mapped. Every building photographed. Everywhere we humans go, whatever we buy, whatever websites we look at, we leave a digital trail as clear as slug slime. And this data can be read, searched, and analyzed by computers and value extracted from it in ways we cannot even begin to conceive.”
The most terrifying part of “The Fear Index” is the sinking sensation, as you turn the last page, that we haven’t seen anything yet. We are incapable of comprehending the totality of the data we produce. We’ll design ever more complex computer programs to do that for us. And they’re going to make a big mess.
Andrew Leonard is a staff writer at Salon. On Twitter, @koxinga21. More Andrew Leonard.
William Gibson: I really can’t predict the future
The science fiction legend tells Salon that if he had a crystal ball, he'd have put Facebook in an early novel
William Gibson (Credit: Michael O'Shea) On the Toronto stop of his book tour this month, William Gibson was asked by an earnest 20-something reader for advice: “Give my generation whatever you think is helpful for it to survive.” Where an author with an inflated sense of self-worth might have dispensed a few pearls of wisdom, Gibson replied that one should distrust people on stages offering programs for how to build the future.
As much as people look to Gibson as a prophet, the science-fiction writer who invented the term “cyberspace” (in the 1982 short story “Burning Chrome”) helped conceptualize the ways we interact with the Web (in 1984’s “Neuromancer” and later works) and foretold the explosion of reality TV (in 1993’s “Virtual Light”) is notoriously reluctant to predict the future. The title of his new collection of journalism and essays, “Distrust That Particular Flavor,” is taken from a piece on H.G. Wells where Gibson explains his suspicion of “the perpetually impatient and somehow perpetually unworldly futurist, seeing his model going terminally wrong in the hands of the less clever.” Though he’s often able to extrapolate from the present with great prescience, Gibson prefers to probe, not prescribe.
Continue Reading CloseHow I found my father in the “Twilight Zone”
I was devastated after my dad, Rod Serling, died. But then I found relief in another dimension
The author with her father, Rod Serling, "Twilight Zone" creator. The last time I saw my father, he was lying in a hospital bed in a room with bright green and yellow walls, inappropriate colors intended to console the sick, the dying. As he slept, curled beneath a sheet, I watched him breathe, willing him to, his face still tan against that pillow so white. And as I sat looking at him, I thought of how, when I was small, I would wake in my room beside my flowered wallpaper and listen for his footsteps down the hall, comfortable in their familiarity, secure in the insular world of my childhood, knowing without question or doubt that when I followed those sounds, I would always find him.
Continue Reading CloseAnne Serling has been published in "The Twilight Zone, The Original Stories." She has recently completed a memoir about her father titled "Another Dimension: Growing Up With the Man Behind The Twilight Zone." Her website is: anneserling.com. More Anne Serling.
“After the Apocalypse”: The end of the world, without heroes
In nine visionary stories, a tough-minded writer imagines what the fall of civilization would really feel like
(Credit: iStockphoto/Abenaa) The post-apocalyptic adventure story, in the American imagination, at least, is a wish disguised as a fear. Feigning horror at the notion of civilization razed to its foundations, we can indulge in the fantasy of remaking it from the ground up. Finally, we’ll get it right because we Americans — despite not knowing about stuff like, say, Libya — abound in native common sense and gumption. And that’s all we really need, right?
“After the Apocalypse,” a new short story collection by Maureen McHugh, amounts to a merciless dismantling of this delusion. The first story, “The Naturalist,” is a zombie yarn (the only one in the book), set in the ruins of Cleveland, a fenced-off no-man’s land where convicts are impounded in the unspoken hope that the zombies will finish them off — or vice versa. Whittaker, the inevitable self-appointed leader of the cons, likes to make speeches about “how they were all more free here in the preserve than they’d ever been in a society that had no place for them, about how there used to be spaces for men with big appetites like the Wild West and Alaska — and how all that was gone now.”
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Laura Miller is a senior writer for Salon. She is the author of "The Magician's Book: A Skeptic's Adventures in Narnia" and has a Web site, magiciansbook.com. More Laura Miller.
The overlooked sci-fi of 2011
These novels explore a virus-plagued West, a reality-altered utopia and a collapsed American empire
When compiling best-of lists at the end of the year, it’s easy to overlook certain classes of deserving books. In a year filled with massive, highly publicized releases — a new Neal Stephenson, a Vernor Vinge sequel awaited for twenty years — wonderful books with less flash can go unnoticed in the shadows. A debut novel, perhaps. Or the second book in a quiet series. Or a novel published right at the busy holiday end of the calendar year.
I have selected one of each of these oft-neglected types to bring to your attention. But besides highlighting these superior books, this essay hopes to remind you to cast your own literary nets widely when selecting your personal candidates for the year’s finest.
Neil Gaiman’s audiobook record label
The best-selling author talks about introducing his new, hand-picked lineup of favorite books to American ears
(Credit: AP) Neil Gaiman’s enthusiasm for audiobooks is no secret. The best-selling author has narrated many of his own titles, including “The Graveyard Book,” which won the Audiobook of the Year award (from the Audio Publishers Association) in 2009. He’s even narrated books by other authors on occasion.
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Laura Miller is a senior writer for Salon. She is the author of "The Magician's Book: A Skeptic's Adventures in Narnia" and has a Web site, magiciansbook.com. More Laura Miller.
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