10:57 Ok I gave in. Hah, it is so much more insane here, where she’s just sort of staring off to the left of the screen. Everyone: The CNN camera is different from the terrorist Internet Skype camera — she’s just refusing to look at the liberals watching CNN. This address was for the patriots! Anyway, I missed the details of everything she said, more or less, but the pictures were neat. What a fun night! Stay tuned for more coverage from all of us here in the WAR ROOM, tonight and tomorrow.

10:55 Here’s Michele Bachmann coming to you live from this stuttering webcam, like a common terrorist, in front of a GIANT PICTURE OF THE CONSTITUTION. I guess I could turn on CNN to watch this but I’m taping something right now and really dislike turning the channel to CNN, ever. But god, the Tea Party website is just… not working. What are they even spending that secret money on, anyway!

10:35 Obama: America is awesome and will “win the future” thanks to the Internet and the fact that we rule so hard. Ryan: The other party wants you to believe that the government can do things but it can’t. We are screwed. We’re basically Greece. This entire broken nation is going down the shitter. Thank you and good night.

10:30 Good evening, I’m Paul Ryan, speaking to the camera in a dark, empty room, because I’m delivering a “The More You Know” PSA. Rep. Ryan had the benefit of getting a preview of the Obama’s speech, but that doesn’t help his essential midwestern blandness. (I am allowed to say that because I am from the midwest.) Also his eyes are kinda bloodshot, for some reason. It looks a bit like we just caught him smoking up in what he thought was an empty classroom.

Anyway, guy hates Obamacare. Taxes! Fees! “Winners and losers!” Why the hell don’t they just let the real pros do this? I would watch Mike Huckabee’s response. Maybe he’d play the bass! This guy just spit out the phrase “safety net” like he was alarmed to see it on his teleprompter.

10:15 Ok, turns out the state of the union is “strong.” Couldn’t he have mentioned that at the beginning of the speech, saved us all some time?

10:10 Veterans get a standing ovation that lasts even longer than the standing O for “working together.” Hey, maybe by the time they’re done clapping, out “combat troops” will have begun to leave Afghanistan! Wait, now we’re going “enlist our veterans in the great task of building our own nation”? Haven’t they suffered enough, this nation is broken as hell. (Ok, pointing out that some soldiers are gay was nice.) “We will argue about everything Obama promises. So much for civility, Obama is just going to argue with everyone.

“And yet, as contentious and frustrating and messy as our democracy can sometimes be, I know there isn’t a person here who would trade places with any other nation on Earth.” I dunno, I’d trade places with, like, the Bahamas right now. It’s cold in New York. The highlight of the entire night for me so far was the applause for the news that Joe Biden is from Scranton.

10:00 Apparently we can’t afford tax cuts for billionaires? Huh. Then why did we extend them, again? Oh god he’s doing Reagan. The government is so big and complicated, I have a folksy anecdote about fish that illustrates the absurdity of the entire enterprise of managing a massive, wealthy, post-industrial nation. (Obama is also bad at delivering “jokes,” his apparently developed sense of irony nothwithstanding.) Oh, now we’re done with “wasteful government spending” and on to our on-going fight against al Qaeda abroad. We’re going to kill all the terrorists. All of them! Also we’re going to leave Afghanistan. Or begin to leave. Begin to start to leave.

9:50 “The final step to winning the future is going back in time and destroying SkyNet before it becomes sentient.” No, sorry, apparently the final step is DEFICIT DEFICIT DEFICIT etc. etc. etc. (Also, shit, this is the final step? Bipartisan seating makes this go so fast!) No applause for Eisenhower. Or for “painful cuts.”

9:47 A bipartisan smattering of boos and applause for healthcare, of course. Obama is kind enough not to mention that Democrats already tried to fix that stupid 1099 thing and the GOP filibustered it. Anyway Obama tricks Republicans by introducing a guy with brain cancer who was saved by his Obamacare.

945 In the “high-speed trains” bit (sigh) there is big, odd applause for the “without the patdown” line — in a room full of people who are never patted down at the airport, because they are members of Congress. Hah, also, we’re lowering the corporate tax rate, because that’s a priority. There’s also some stuff about the Internet and firefighters downloading maps onto their iPads or something, which sounds cool until you try it in Manhattan with AT&T, am I right?

9:40 Obama is talking about schools, and children. WILL JOHN BOEHNER CRY? Oh, standing ovation for teachers. But we definitely do hate those bad teachers. (Bad teachers are the ones who belong to unions.)

If we take these steps – if we raise expectations for every child, and give them the best possible chance at an education, from the day they’re born until the last job they take – we will reach the goal I set two years ago: by the end of the decade, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.

Haha and none of them will have jobs. America will have more 30-year-old philosophy majors living with their parents in some sad exurban Phoenix shack than anywhere else in the world! Eat it, Sweden!

Oh also apparently we should stop deporting children who do well in American schools but aren’t citizens. Did anyone propose any legislation that dealt with with?

9:30 Internet again. Scattered applause for “Facebook,” for some reason. Now the Sputnik bit. “Clean energy technology” got applause, too — I think he’s accidentally reading one of Nixon’s SOTUs? Anyway, we’re “winning the future,” which is why Obama’s budget will include billions to clone Mike Allen. Soon every American will know when John Thune’s spokesperson’s birthday is. We will win the future also by making sure the winner of the science fair is celebrated as much as the winner of the Super Bowl. So screw you, Aaron Rodgers!

9:20 Obama moving on to the “Springsteen” portion of the speech, talking about shuttered factories, empty steel mills, the amusement park shutting down, men walking through these gates with death in their eyes, etc. Apparently this can be solved with the Internet. “No workers are more productive than ours,” he said, though a couple countries have workers who get compensated for their productivity a little more fairly. (Obama didn’t say that bit.) Also our students might not be so great at “equations” but they’re really good at asking Larry King-style questions, like “What do you think of that idea?” and “What would you change about the world?”

9:15 It would’ve been so great if he’d slipped up and said “Madam Speaker.” Obama begins by noting the empty chair of Gabrielle Giffords, and Boehner sorrrta looks teary-eyed. “Working together” gets a standing O, because these people are children.

9:06 Here we go. ABC’s packaging was annoying so I’ve switched to Fox, where the dulcet, Parliament-coated tones of Shep Smith are soothing my jangled nerves. Now Chris Wallace seems to be complaining that “a website” published the speech before it happened. He blames a congressional staffer. Boo, congressional staffer! Except he doesn’t mention that the the website belongs to an actual, physical magazine. (And one that Major Garrett went to work for.) So booo, magazines, Chris. And here’s the President. He is so happy to see everyone. He said something to Tom Coburn about shaving his beard. He’s even happy to see John Roberts! And Ruth Bader Ginsburg gets a hug!

8:30: Ken Salazar is our “designated survivor,” so once Dan Burton’s “24″-inspired doomsday scenario goes down, the Interior secretary will be our benign dictator. As for the speech itself? Do you have spending freeze fever? Because we’re going to cut the deficit by $400 billion with a five-year freeze on some domestic spending, apparently. There is also some talk about Tunisia. I am just skimming, honestly, so that I can enjoy the boilerplate renewable energy section when it happens live.

But some of the rules are complicated. If at any point tonight Obama says the words “budget freeze,” you must mix a frozen drink, pour the drink into a cup half the size of the drink, and lick the remnants off the floor. If he says “filibuster,” drink steadily until 60 percent of the people around you agree to stop.

The Esquire blog editors’ game on Esquire.com:
Consider this the high-stakes game. There is a very good chance that you will stay sober throughout the night, but if you don’t, it will have been an SOTU for the ages. This game focuses on the response of the crowd rather than the speaker himself. It starts simply enough: take a sip of beer for the standard things like a Democrat standing while a Republican sits, or vice versa. In the name of this season of civility it also calls for a sip whenever the camera shows two members of different parties sitting next to each other. Close-ups of sad or angry reps require a drink, as does a close-up of Joe Lieberman looking constipated, which I guess happens.

Though things get heavy very quickly. Take a shot of liquor if there is audible booing, which there might be. Take two shots if there is actual heckling, or if the president calls someone out by name, which to my knowledge is unprecedented but would be amazing to see. A reference to Keith Olbermann’s retirement or Mrs. Obama’s dress gets three shots, and if someone shouts out, “You lie!” you finish the bottle.

Daniel Kurtzman’s game on politicalhumor.about.com:
The chances of any of these things actually happening makes the rules of this game purely theoretical, but we’d be remiss if we didn’t include anyone who thought the president of the United States might say, “It reminds me of my childhood in Kenya.” I can’t go through all the gems laden in Kurtzman’s rule book — it’s worth just reading over — but other highlights include taking a shot whenever Obama says, “The rent is too damn high,” “Hold on, I just got a text,” or “At the risk of making John Boehner cry, I’m going to read some passages from ‘Old Yeller.’”

Rob Bacardi’s game on his personal blog:
Constructed from a conservative perspective, this game comes with physical instructions like face-palming in addition to having a sip of beer if Obama mentions new spending initiatives. Most of the rules are both complaints that the GOP would have with Obama and things that Obama would actually do: mentioning a “new era” warrants two drinks, and mentioning immigration reform warrants three, though the drink must specifically be tequila and the Puerto Rican author commands you then announce your racism for spreading stereotypes.

But what earns this game a spot on this list is the rule that you must chug if Obama uses the term “Obamacare.” It occurs to me that he’s never publicly done this — maybe it’s about time.

The official State of the Union Drinking Game blog game:
Yes, I’ve saved the best for last, or at least the most obvious for last. It turns out there’s a regularly updated site dedicated to creating a new game for each new State of the Union speech. There are all sorts of intricate rules, but there’s also an inherent simplicity to this game: Drink if the state of the union is strong. Drink twice if it’s very strong.

The rules require one shot or drink for each item on the list that the speech or camera hits. Highlights include drinking if mention is made of “securing the borders,” drinking twice if the camera pans to someone Latino, and three times if the camera pans to Robert Menendez or Marco Rubio. And my favorite: One drink if DADT is brought up, two drinks if the camera moves to someone in uniform, and three if two individuals in uniform are holding hands.

These are the options we’ve found most suitable for tonight’s festivities. Of course, if you think you’ve come up with better ones, please don’t hesitate to share them.

In a political sense, Obama is fighting Republicans for the upper hand in showing fiscal restraint in a time of staggering debt. Public angst over spending was a defining force in the 2010 midterm elections, and it is expected to remain so as Obama’s re-election drive begins.

Overall, Obama is trying to convince the American people and a divided Congress that he has a vision for speeding up job creation, promoting spending on the core of his agenda but promising to rein in debt. His speech will reflect reality: The economy trumps all.

The president is also putting his weight behind a five-year plan developed by Defense Secretary Robert Gates to limit planned Pentagon budget increases by $78 billion over five years — a plan that’s run into opposition from key Republicans. Obama’s budget freeze would not touch money related to national security or the politically popular but costly entitlement programs of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.

To a nationwide television audience in prime time, Obama will home in on jobs, the issue of most importance to the public and to his hopes for a second term. A smiling president looked relaxed and upbeat at the White House in a brief photo opportunity Tuesday afternoon.

Specifically, he will focus on improving the education, innovation and infrastructure of the United States as the way to provide a sounder economic base. He will pair that with calls to reduce the government’s debt — now topping $14 trillion — and reform government. Those five areas will frame the speech, with sprinklings of fresh proposals.

He will wrap it all under the heading of helping the United States to compete more successfully in the world — a “win the future” rallying cry that Obama’s aides hopes will resonate with both workers and business executives and bind the political parties.

Yet no matter how ambitious Obama’s rhetorical reach, his speech at the halfway point of his term will be viewed in the context of his new political reality.

The midterm elections gave Republicans control of the House and a stronger minority vote in the Senate, meaning he hasn’t the option of pushing through changes over GOP objections. The contrast between the two parties’ visions remains stark, and where to slash spending, and by how much, will drive much of the debate for the rest of 2011.

Obama’s speech will come just hours after the House is to vote on setting spending for the rest of the year at 2008, pre-recession levels. That resolution, largely symbolic, would put Republican lawmakers on record in favor of cutting $100 billion from Obama’s budget for the current year, as promised in last year’s campaign.

The president is promising to spend and cut at the same time, a politically tricky mix.

Obama’s senior adviser Valerie Jarrett said Tuesday morning the administration believes it can make targeted investments in such as education and infrastructure to create a business environment more conducive to job creation, while simultaneously backing budget cuts.

Obama’s calls for spending cuts come at the same time he is promoting new investments in areas like education and infrastructure. In order to achieve both, Obama would likely have to make cuts from other areas of the budget, though White House aides haven’t said what programs would be affected, or whether Obama would detail those cuts in Tuesday’s address.

The president will give nods to American interests around the globe, with a traditional foreign policy section that will cover the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, terrorism threats and diplomacy. But his primary goal is for those watching to emerge with more confidence about the economy of the country and more clarity about his vision for it.

The atmosphere is expected to be more sober and civil than in recent years.

The speech comes less than three weeks after an assassination attempt on Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson, Ariz. She is recovering remarkably well after being shot in the head during a one-man rampage that left six dead. Arizona’s congressional delegation will leave an empty seat for Giffords on the House floor Tuesday night.

Among those who will sit with first lady Michelle Obama at the president’s speech will be the family of a 9-year-old girl who was killed, an aide to Giffords who rushed to help her at the shooting and trauma surgeons who have treated the wounded lawmaker.

In an attempt at unity following an attack on one of their own, some Democratic and Republican lawmakers will sit together at Obama’s speech. Others have dismissed that idea as superficial.

White House domestic policy adviser Melody Barnes said Obama would build on the calls for unity following the Arizona shootings and appeal Tuesday night for lawmakers to apply that same spirit to their work on Capitol Hill.

“As we are honoring our heroes, as we are honoring people who have faced tough challenges, that reminds us that we can come together to face the tough challenges that confront us as a nation,” she said.

The focus on tone comes a year after Obama’s rebuke of a Supreme Court decision in his State of the Union speech led Justice Samuel Alito to mouth back from the audience, “Not true.” Six justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts, will attend Tuesday’s address. Alito is in Hawaii this week, and will not attend; neither will Justices Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scalia.

The timing also means that Obama will be giving his main policy-driven speech of the year in the shadow of his own highly regarded eulogy for the Tucson victims, which served as a call for national unity and civility. That only makes delivering a successful speech now more difficult, said Russell Riley, a presidential scholar at the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

“If you want an important speech out of Barack Obama right now, he already gave it,” Riley said, referring to the Arizona memorial on Jan. 12. “What’s going to happen now with the State of the Union is part of the ongoing story of Washington, and it is a significant event in the political calendar. Yet from a historical perspective, they just tend not to make a difference.”

Obama is trying to emphasize economic priorities that can draw both public appeal and enough Republican consideration for at least serious debate.

But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell suggested Tuesday that Obama has a long road ahead as he tries to court Republican support.

“Voters sent a clear message in November. When it comes to jobs and the economy, the administration’s policies have done far more damage than good,” McConnell said on the Senate floor.

Republicans have chosen Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin to deliver the televised response to Obama’s address. He is planning to promote budget cuts as essential to responsible governing, and will speak from the hearing room of the House Budget Committee, which he now chairs.

The president’s aides say Obama will talk about cutting spending too, although the details are less clear. In the background are the politically explosive recommendations of his bipartisan commission on how to trim the debt, such as shrinking Social Security benefits and raising the age of eligibility.

The White House said Obama will not dive deeply into policy or offer a list of ideas.

In a new Associated Press-GfK poll, more than half of those surveyed disapproved of how Obama has handled the economy, and just 35 percent said it has improved on his watch. Still, the poll revealed a sense of perspective: Three-quarters of those questioned said it is unrealistic to expect noticeable improvements after two years.

Obama’s radio address over the weekend previewed what he is expected to say to the nation on Tuesday.

“We’re living in a new and challenging time in which technology has made competition easier and fiercer than ever before. Countries around the world are upping their game and giving their workers and companies every advantage possible,” the president said. “But that shouldn’t discourage us. Because I know we can win that competition.”

——

Associated Press writers Andrew Taylor, Julie Pace and Jeannine Aversa contributed to this report.

He’ll likely have a line or two about the welfare of the troops, how we must support them when they come home and rebuild the morale shattered by broken withdrawal deadline after broken withdrawal deadline (he probably won’t use those words, exactly).

However, he won’t tell the whole story about how the troops are faring.

Congress.org reports that for the second year in a row, the military has lost more U.S. troops to suicide than it has to combat in either Iraq or Afghanistan.

The services counted 434 suicides by active duty personnel in 2010, up from 381 in 2009. These figures bely the truth. None of the services report suicides uniformly. For instance, the Army includes stats on certain reservists who kill themselves when they are not on active duty, but the National Guard only includes the number of service members on active duty. The Defense Department does not count suicides by veterans who have left the services completely. And the Department of Veterans Affairs keeps track of veteran suicides only if the individual was enrolled in the VA health care system. Three-quarters of veterans are not enrolled in the program.

We’ve known for some time that military personnel who’ve served in both quagmires are particularly prone to PTSD and other psychological disorders associated with multiple deployments, high stress, heavy carnage and a seemingly impossible mission.

A report by Chris Kirkham for the Huffington Post today also reveals that American troops suffer hardships not even associated with combat.

Kirkham focuses on Fort Sill in Lawton Oklahoma, a typical Army base, from the barracks to the mess hall to the “military loan” brokers and other predatory lenders encircling Fort Sill’s gates. Many of the troops stationed there and at other bases across the country, Kirkham writes, are suckered into high-interest, easy credit loans by brokers “catering” to military personnel but who essentially screw them out of their paychecks and intimidate them into making payments they can’t afford.

The Department of Defense first reported this problem in 2006 when it launched an investigation into predatory lenders and their tendency to “gouge our service people.” It has become such an epidemic that Holly Petraeus, the general’s wife, will head a newly created division of the Consumer Financial Protection Agency focused entirely on eliminating such practices directed towards the military.

This should have been fixed four years ago, but Kirkham’s piece, in which one PFC says, “I was actually debt-free my entire life, until I joined the Army,” clearly points out that it is not.

The president will avoid these hard truths in his speech tonight. No one has a clear solution, but as we plan our withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq moves towards greater sustainability, and we hopefully, finally end these endless wars, we must keep in mind that the troops might not be safe even after they come home.