B Y J A M E S C A R V I L L E
The Kansas Chainsaw Massacre hypocrisy kills. If you're a political candidate and don't practice what you preach, you're setting yourself up for a clobbering. Bob Dole clearly doesn't understand that concept. Here's a classic example of a guy who's much better at talking out of two sides of his mouth than one. The ugliest example is the one I brought up in my column last week -- Dole's hypocrisy on family values. But believe me, it doesn't stop there. Here's one that kills me every time: Dole regularly shellacks President Clinton for giving us the "largest tax increase in history." But guess what? If you believe the Wall Street Journal, by every measure the largest tax increase in American history came not in 1993 but in 1982. Not only was the 1982 tax hike approved by Senator Bob Dole -- it was sponsored by him! (You can check out the article for yourself: "A Vote for Clinton's Economic Program Becomes the Platform for Often-Misleading GOP Attacks," October 26, 1994. Unfortunately the Journal doesn't have it online.) This week, at our big convention in Chicago, some of my Democratic colleagues would like to make a big deal of another piece of blatant Dole hypocrisy on taxes. I refer, of course, to Dole's sudden conversion to budget-busting supply-side economics after a career of standing firmly with the Senate's Better-Dead-Than-in the-Red brigade. But in my opinion, this is one case where we Democrats ought to take a pass on the hypocrisy angle. Here's my thinking on this. If we yield to temptation and attack Dole for his death-bed conversion, we'd score some points on Dole, but we'd lose the chance to turn this tax scheme into a much bigger issue. Why not take Dole at face value and skip right to a big-time debate over the merits of the Republican economic scheme? Supply-side economics is just the kind of big issue that will allow us to nationalize the elections. It's the kind of issue that Congressional candidates all over the country can run on. In Chicago, we'll be able to put away our little clarinets and break out the big ol' tubas. Right from the start of the convention, we Democrats are going to play up the big contrast between the proven success of the economic course Democrats have steered for the past four years and the proven failure of the supply-side schemes that the Republicans have just pulled out of the trash heap of history. The Democratic plan is one of reduced deficits, increased investments in our people and targeted, reasonable tax cuts for those who need it most. The Republican plan, as we saw in the 1980s, is one of astronomical deficits, draconian cuts in investments and an unaffordable tax system skewed toward the wealthy. And how do we know that Bob Dole's supply-side plan would be a case of devastating deja vu? It's elementary, my dear reader. Just bear with me as we do some arithmetic. Bob Dole's supply-side tax scheme would cost, by his own estimates, about $550 billion over six years. Last year, in the budget that President Clinton vetoed, the Republicans wanted tax cuts that would have cost $245 billion over seven years -- less than half of what Bob Dole is now proposing. As I'm sure I do not need to remind you, paying for a $245 billion tax cut while at the same time trying to balance the budget required very deep cuts in things Americans cared very deeply about. The Republicans came damn close to committing political hari-kari with their own budget knives. Now let's assume Bob Dole would keep his word to balance the budget. Exactly how deep would the cuts have to go this time? Last week, the Concord Coalition, a group headed in part by Bob Dole's very good friend Warren Rudman, gave us the answer. Because Dole has taken Medicare and Social Security off the chopping block, he's going to have to come up with cuts of MORE THAN 40 PERCENT in just about every other area of government. And if you factor in all the extra goodies Dole's now promising veterans and the Pentagon, cuts will have to go even deeper. Last time around, the Republicans liked to say that they were just slowing the growth of government. This time around, they'd be slowing the growth of kids. You think poor kids ought to get help with vaccinations and infant formula? Sorry. Dole and the Republicans would have to cut back on both by more than 40 percent. You want safe skies? Forget it. Bob Dole and the Republicans would have to chop air-safety inspections by more than 40 percent. You want clean water? Pity. Dole and the Republicans would cut environmental enforcement by more than 40 percent. You don't think our students' minds ought to go to waste? Bummer. Dole and the Republicans would slash Head Start, college loans, and all spending on education more than 40 percent. You think we need to crack down on drugs? That's a shame. Dole and the Republicans would have to scale back drug interdiction, drug treatment and drug education by more than 40 percent. You think we ought to strengthen our borders? Oh well. Dole and the Republicans would have to cut the border patrol budget by 40 percent. You hope that after this TWA bombing, the FBI can ramp up its anti-terrorism efforts? Not a chance. Dole and the Republicans would raid its budget by more than 40 percent. You like getting early warnings when hurricanes are headed your way? Whoops. Under Dole and the Republicans, the National Weather Service wouldn't even have the money to hire Willard Scott to speak at their annual meeting. Of course, Dole and the Republicans could take the other way out. Instead of these draconian cuts, he could just go for slightly less draconian cuts and let the debt pile up. Perhaps that's what he meant when he said a little while back that he could "be Ronald Reagan if that's what you want me to be." Either way, as you will see in Chicago, we've got Bob Dole and every member of Congress who stumps for Dole's plan right where we want 'em. They're going to wish they had never let us put down the clarinets. Will the GOP's budget-cutting schemes make them vulnerable to voter wrath this fall? Join Carville in Table Talk.
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