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A L S O _T O D A Y Are we the world?
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BY ANDREW O'HEHIR | On one level, handicapping the World Cup tournament is child's play: Almost any soccer fan can name the eight teams with a realistic chance of taking home the trophy. But after that comes the guesswork and the witchcraft. History suggests that two or three of the favored eight will crap out ingloriously by the second round -- and head home, as the Italians once did, to a shower of rotten vegetables at the airport -- and that a couple of unlikely dark horses will sneak at least as far as the quarterfinals. You can build a plausible case for any of the big eight. (My favorite nonsense prediction is the "palindrome of winners" -- if England wins this year, a chart of the nine champions from 1966 to 1998 will form a perfectly symmetrical pyramid, with Italy at its apex.) In fact, the only choice the pundits have widely neglected is Brazil, the defending champion, despite the fact that the team features the prodigious young striker Ronaldo, acknowledged as the best player in the world. It's just not sexy to pick the favorite, and besides teams from the Americas have typically done poorly in European competition, and the Brazilian squad has admittedly seemed to be in disarray lately. But all prognosticators must issue the following caveat: If Brazil plays to its abilities, all else in the soccer world is ashes. On the other hand, this might be the year when a rank outsider finally captures the Cup. (No team outside the known powers of Western Europe and South America has ever won.) In 1994, the world was a couple of lucky goals away from watching Bulgaria and Sweden, fringe players in European soccer, do battle for the title. But those are precisely the kinds of goals that don't happen at this level of competition -- we may see a new champion in 1998, but it probably won't be an unknown quantity. [ Note: All times are EDT. ] T H E F A V O R I T E S To advance to the second round, a team must finish first or second in its four-team group. First-round lapses by any of these heavy hitters could cripple their chances.
Diego Maradona, thankfully, has departed the Argentine soccer scene. But this is the best group to don the blue-and-white stripes since his heyday. Full of talent and confidence, this side recently traveled to Rio and dominated Brazil in a 1-0 win. Led by striker Gabriel Batistuta, one of the world's best scorers, and a brilliant group of midfielders, these guys have their eyes on the prize. Best of all, it's OK to root for them now that their government is no longer tossing leftists out of airplanes. Key first-round games: June 21 vs. Jamaica (11 a.m., ESPN2). The Reggae Boyz are fun to watch, and the Jamaicans who make it to France will party hearty, but Argentina should carve up their defense. June 26 vs. Croatia (9:30 a.m., ESPN2). The Argies have a mighty soft road to the second round, so they may not even need this one, but it should pose their first real test.
World, meet Ronaldo. Unhappily, the man who posed for a tire ad in imitation of Rio's famous Christ statue has looked exhausted and un-messiah-like lately. With Romario out because of an injury, who will partner him up front? Will aging goalkeeper Taffarel give up a few bad ones? Will the attack-minded defenders Cafú and Roberto Carlos ever stay in the backfield? The world's best team, always a running soap opera, is in crisis mode. Key first-round games: June 10 vs. Scotland (11 a.m., ESPN). The opening game of the tourney could be dreadful -- Brazil will attack nonstop while the Scots play back and hope for a 0-0 draw. June 23 vs. Norway (2:30 p.m., ESPN). Another bitter struggle with a gutsy defensive team. It won't be pretty, but Brazil has to figure out how to win these.
If the limeys can stay out of France's bars and brothels, they could do some real damage in this tournament. National hero Paul Gascoigne was dropped from the team for his boozy late-night habits, and backup striker Teddy Sheringham has had similar problems. What's left, including the lethal strike tandem of Alan Shearer and 18-year-old Michael Owen, is nonetheless England's best team in years. Big question: How will the notoriously horrible English fans, pouring through the Chunnel in droves, behave themselves? Key first-round games: June 22 vs. Romania (2:30 p.m., ESPN). Don't miss this potentially thrilling matchup between two tough veteran sides who know how to score. June 26 vs. Colombia (2:30 p.m., ESPN). An intriguing clash of styles as the gritty, troubled Anglos face the elegant, troubled Colombian squad headed by dazzling midfielder Carlos Valderrama and his blond 'fro.
Sacre bleu! The star-crossed home team has never won the Cup, despite being consistently among the best sides in the world. They may have the tourney's best midfield in Didier Deschamps and the amazing Zinedine Zidane, but who's going to score? Unless the young David Trézéguet proves to be the savior up front, France is likely to crumble under the pressure of their highly critical fans. Key first-round games: June 12 vs. South Africa (2:30 p.m., ESPN2). Should be an easy win, but South Africa's first-ever World Cup game will be an emotional occasion. June 24 vs. Denmark (10 a.m., ESPN). The unpredictable French could easily lose their composure against a side of tough Danish veterans. N E X T+P A G E | Germany, Italy and more |
