Michael Howard
Five more years?
A new report says the strength of the insurgency casts doubt on plans to begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq.
It could take at least five years before Iraqi forces are strong enough to impose law and order on the country, the International Institute of Strategic Studies warned Tuesday. The think tank’s report said that Iraq had become a valuable recruiting ground for al-Qaida, and Iraqi forces were nowhere near close to matching the insurgency.
John Chipman, IISS director, said that Iraqi security forces face a “huge task” and that the continuing ability of the insurgents to inflict mass casualties “must cast doubt on U.S. plans to redeploy American troops and eventually reduce their numbers.”
Insurgents have killed 600 Iraqis since the new government was formed. The IISS report said: “Best estimates suggest that it will take up to five years to create anything close to an effective indigenous force able to impose and guarantee order across the country.”
The report said that, on balance, U.S. policy over the past year had been effective in emboldening regional players in the Middle East and the Gulf to rally against rogue states. But it warned that the inspirational effect of the intervention in Iraq on Islamist terrorism was “the proverbial elephant in the living room. From al-Qaida’s point of view, [President] Bush’s Iraq policies have arguably produced a confluence of propitious circumstances: a strategically bogged down America, hated by much of the Islamic world, and regarded warily even by its allies.”
Iraq “could serve as a valuable proving ground for ‘blooding’ foreign jihadists, and could conceivably form the basis of a second generation of capable al-Qaida leaders … and middle-management players,” the report said.
Tuesday, a statement was placed on an al-Qaida Web site claiming that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian-born Islamist who has claimed responsibility for numerous attacks, kidnappings and beheadings of foreign hostages in Iraq, had been injured. The statement, whose authenticity could not be verified, asked Muslims to pray for his recovery but did not say how or when he was injured. It said: “Let the near and far know that the injury of our leader is an honor, and a cause to close in on the enemies of God, and a reason to increase the attacks against them.”
There were reports earlier this month that the U.S. military was investigating whether al-Zarqawi was at a Ramadi hospital and whether he was ill or wounded.
The think tank report points to U.S. estimates that there are between 12,000 and 20,000 hardcore insurgents in Iraq. It says that Iraqi politicians have been keen to blame the rise in sectarian violence on foreign jihadists. “But they may have overstated their case.”
Insurgents demonstrated their ability to hit U.S. forces in the heart of the Iraqi capital Tuesday when a military convoy was targeted by a car bomb, killing three U.S. troops. A fourth U.S. soldier was killed in a drive-by shooting as he sat atop a Bradley fighting vehicle at an observation post in central Baghdad. The U.S. military also announced Tuesday that four soldiers had been killed by a roadside bomb on Monday in Haswa, 30 miles south of the capital, bringing the total number of U.S. fatalities since May 22 to 13.
Tuesday, Iraq’s new interior minister, Bayan al-Jabr, who is also a member of the ruling Shiite-led alliance, met with two prominent Sunni Muslim figures in an effort to reduce sectarian tensions. Officials said the meeting was designed to “curb all hateful attempts aiming to plan sectarian sedition among the Iraqi people.”
Toby Dodge, senior fellow at the IISS and an expert on Iraq, estimated Tuesday that there are about 1,000 foreign fighters in Iraq “perfecting the use of car bombs” and causing more problems across the region, including Saudi Arabia. There seemed to be no “viable exit strategy” for foreign troops.
Breeding ground for suicide bombers
U.S. and Iraqi officials are alarmed by the increasing cooperation between foreign militants and domestic insurgents.
The number of suicide attacks in Iraq has reached a record high, with more than 67 insurgents blowing themselves up in April alone. Figures from diplomatic and Iraqi security sources Wednesday show that of the 135 car bombings last month, which took hundreds of lives and inflicted thousands of injuries, more than half were suicide missions. The number of car bombings has doubled since March.
The level of suicide attacks has raised fears that American and Iraqi forces are losing the battle to prevent foreign fighters, prepared to die for the cause of defeating the U.S. occupation, from entering the country. Most suicide bombers are thought to come from outside Iraq, intelligence sources say, but they operate with local support. A Western diplomat said that for the first time since the fall of Saddam Hussein, suicide bombers account for most of the daily car bomb attacks. “There is an apparent free flow of suicide bombers into Iraq,” he said. A senior Iraqi official added: “Unless we can stop that flood, people will be afraid to gather in public together.”
Continue Reading CloseToo violent for voting?
Iraq's deputy prime minister says elections could be delayed because of continuing security threats.
Iraq’s deputy prime minister has indicated for the first time that the much-heralded elections due in January could be derailed by the country’s violent insurgency. Barham Salih said the authorities were determined to hold the vote, but admitted they would have to assess the security situation nearer the time.
“Holding free and fair elections on time is an obligation that we have undertaken towards the Iraqi people,” he said. But he added: “Nearer the time, the Iraqi government, the United Nations, the independent election commission and the National Assembly will have to engage in a real and hard-headed dialogue to assess the situation.” It is the first time a senior figure in the interim government has acknowledged that the dire security situation in large parts of the country could affect the political process.
Continue Reading CloseBalancing the risks in holy Najaf
Iraqi PM indicates he is wary of potential fallout from desecrating Imam Ali shrine and 'martyring' rebel cleric.
Ayad Allawi’s ultimatum yesterday to the rebel Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr who is holed up with his fighters in the holy city of Najaf was notable for one thing: the lack of a deadline. Reporters who gathered for a news conference in Baghdad were expecting the prime minister to announce that the final military push to remove Mr Sadr from the Imam Ali shrine had begun. But while he made it clear that the time for negotiation was over, Mr Allawi positioned himself behind the peace plan that emerged from this week’s national conference, which calls for Mr Sadr to vacate the holy shrine, disarm his militia and join the political process. “A solution is needed and soon and we want to use all peaceful means to preserve the holy shrine,” he said.
Continue Reading CloseWords, not bullets
The long-awaited national conference begins in Baghdad despite a dangerous security situation.
A downpour had been expected in Baghdad, and it arrived right on cue.
The predictions had been for mortar bombs, of course, not rain, but the thud of shells exploding so close to Baghdad’s convention center caused scarcely a blink among the delegates to the much-anticipated national conference gathered inside.
Some were asked to move away from the windows while it was explained that Saddam Hussein had built the center to withstand direct hits. The delegates knew what to expect and appeared neither shaken nor disturbed.
Continue Reading CloseAhmed Chalabi goes home
The political chameleon returns to Iraq to face charges and "help the government and stop the violence."
Ahmed Chalabi, the leader of the Iraqi National Congress and a longtime opponent of Saddam Hussein, returned to Iraq yesterday, saying he was determined to clear his name of counterfeiting charges.
“He is back among his people and trying to get some rest before returning to his political duties — trying to help the government and stop the violence,” an INC official, Mithal al-Alusi, told the Associated Press.
Iraq’s senior investigative judge issued an arrest warrant for Chalabi on counterfeiting charges last week. If convicted, the controversial politician, who in exile was a key ally of the U.S. in the run-up to the Iraq war, could face a lengthy jail sentence.
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