Richard Norton-Taylor
Five more years?
A new report says the strength of the insurgency casts doubt on plans to begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq.
It could take at least five years before Iraqi forces are strong enough to impose law and order on the country, the International Institute of Strategic Studies warned Tuesday. The think tank’s report said that Iraq had become a valuable recruiting ground for al-Qaida, and Iraqi forces were nowhere near close to matching the insurgency.
John Chipman, IISS director, said that Iraqi security forces face a “huge task” and that the continuing ability of the insurgents to inflict mass casualties “must cast doubt on U.S. plans to redeploy American troops and eventually reduce their numbers.”
Insurgents have killed 600 Iraqis since the new government was formed. The IISS report said: “Best estimates suggest that it will take up to five years to create anything close to an effective indigenous force able to impose and guarantee order across the country.”
The report said that, on balance, U.S. policy over the past year had been effective in emboldening regional players in the Middle East and the Gulf to rally against rogue states. But it warned that the inspirational effect of the intervention in Iraq on Islamist terrorism was “the proverbial elephant in the living room. From al-Qaida’s point of view, [President] Bush’s Iraq policies have arguably produced a confluence of propitious circumstances: a strategically bogged down America, hated by much of the Islamic world, and regarded warily even by its allies.”
Iraq “could serve as a valuable proving ground for ‘blooding’ foreign jihadists, and could conceivably form the basis of a second generation of capable al-Qaida leaders … and middle-management players,” the report said.
Tuesday, a statement was placed on an al-Qaida Web site claiming that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian-born Islamist who has claimed responsibility for numerous attacks, kidnappings and beheadings of foreign hostages in Iraq, had been injured. The statement, whose authenticity could not be verified, asked Muslims to pray for his recovery but did not say how or when he was injured. It said: “Let the near and far know that the injury of our leader is an honor, and a cause to close in on the enemies of God, and a reason to increase the attacks against them.”
There were reports earlier this month that the U.S. military was investigating whether al-Zarqawi was at a Ramadi hospital and whether he was ill or wounded.
The think tank report points to U.S. estimates that there are between 12,000 and 20,000 hardcore insurgents in Iraq. It says that Iraqi politicians have been keen to blame the rise in sectarian violence on foreign jihadists. “But they may have overstated their case.”
Insurgents demonstrated their ability to hit U.S. forces in the heart of the Iraqi capital Tuesday when a military convoy was targeted by a car bomb, killing three U.S. troops. A fourth U.S. soldier was killed in a drive-by shooting as he sat atop a Bradley fighting vehicle at an observation post in central Baghdad. The U.S. military also announced Tuesday that four soldiers had been killed by a roadside bomb on Monday in Haswa, 30 miles south of the capital, bringing the total number of U.S. fatalities since May 22 to 13.
Tuesday, Iraq’s new interior minister, Bayan al-Jabr, who is also a member of the ruling Shiite-led alliance, met with two prominent Sunni Muslim figures in an effort to reduce sectarian tensions. Officials said the meeting was designed to “curb all hateful attempts aiming to plan sectarian sedition among the Iraqi people.”
Toby Dodge, senior fellow at the IISS and an expert on Iraq, estimated Tuesday that there are about 1,000 foreign fighters in Iraq “perfecting the use of car bombs” and causing more problems across the region, including Saudi Arabia. There seemed to be no “viable exit strategy” for foreign troops.
“Tony, can we trust you after Iraq?”
On the eve of Britain's election, some relatives of dead soldiers threaten to take Blair to court for war crimes.
Tony Blair Tuesday was given a taste of the lingering anger over Iraq when a Labor supporter confronted him and asked how he could ever trust him again. “Tony, can we trust you after Iraq?” Muhammad Jaffer asked the prime minister as he left a campaign rally in Gloucester. “We have lost hundreds of lives, thousands of lives,” he said. “We got the impression you were just following President Bush.”
The prime minister replied: “In the end you have got to try to do as prime minister what you think it is right or appropriate to do.”
Continue Reading CloseHypocrisy on nonproliferation
If their ultimate objective truly is complete nuclear disarmament, the U.S. and Britain are sending a dangerous message to nations without weapons.
A few days before Britain’s general election on May 5, an international conference will confront one of the most pressing issues facing the planet. Its outcome will help determine the future security of states around the world, including Britain. It is a safe bet it won’t get a mention during the election campaign.
The issue is nuclear weapons. On May 2, representatives of 189 countries will gather in New York to discuss how to stop them from spreading further. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference comes at time when Iran is widely suspected of trying to acquire nuclear weapons, North Korea says it has nuclear weapons, Western governments are warning about the threat of nuclear terrorism and the U.S. administration is toying with the idea of building a new generation of “usable” mininukes.
Continue Reading CloseA familiar tale
New details about Britain's rush to war reveal the political pressure the attorney general faced in trying to provide legal justification for the invasion of Iraq.
Britain’s attorney general, Lord Goldsmith, warned less than two weeks before the invasion of Iraq that military action could be ruled illegal. The government was so concerned that it might be prosecuted, it set up a team of lawyers to prepare for legal action in an international court. And a parliamentary answer issued days before the war in the name of Lord Goldsmith — but presented by ministers as his official opinion before the crucial Commons vote — was drawn up in Downing Street, not in the attorney general’s chambers.
Continue Reading CloseAn outdated alliance?
Germany's chancellor, amid U.S.-European tensions over how to stop Iran from building nuclear weapons, calls for an overhaul of NATO.
Joschka Fischer, the German foreign minister, Sunday backed calls by Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder for a revamp of NATO. At a high-level security conference in Munich on Saturday, the chancellor called on the United States and the European Union to set up an international independent panel to consider the future of NATO. The organization, he said, was “no longer the primary venue where transatlantic partners discuss and coordinate strategies.” He added: “The same applies to the dialogue between the European Union and the United States, which in its current form does justice neither to the union’s growing importance nor to the new demands on transatlantic cooperation.”
Continue Reading CloseNew allegations of abuse
A lawyer for a British detainee just released from Guantanamo says her client was repeatedly injected with an unknown substance by his U.S. captors and is now showing signs of mental breakdown.
One of the four men who returned to Britain Tuesday after three years in the U.S. prison at Guantánamo Bay allegedly suffered a series of mental breakdowns and was repeatedly injected with an unknown substance by his U.S. captors. A lawyer for Feroz Abbasi made the allegations as he and three other Muslim men arrived in Britain aboard an RAF plane, only to be arrested by anti-terrorism officers who took them to a top-security police station for questioning.
Abbasi is alleged to have been kept in isolation for 18 months and was left so traumatized that he suffered hallucinations and panic attacks.
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