Sarah Boseley
The Iraqi body count
A study by public health experts finds that about 100,000 civilians have died in the war, and that violence is now the leading cause of death for Iraqis.
About 100,000 Iraqi civilians — half of them women and children — have died in Iraq since the invasion, mostly as a result of airstrikes by coalition forces, according to the first reliable study of the death toll by Iraqi and U.S. public health experts.
The study, which was carried out in 33 randomly chosen neighborhoods of Iraq representative of the entire population, shows that violence is now the leading cause of death in Iraq. Before the invasion, most people died of heart attacks, stroke and chronic illness. The risk of a violent death is now 58 times higher than it was before the invasion.
Thursday night the Lancet medical journal fast-tracked the survey to publication on its Web site after rapid, but extensive peer review and editing because, said Lancet editor Richard Horton, “of its importance to the evolving security situation in Iraq.” But the findings raised important questions also for the governments of the United Sates and Britain, which, said Horton in a commentary, “must have considered the likely effects of their actions for civilians.”
The research was led by Les Roberts of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, Md. Five of the six Iraqi interviewers who went to the 988 households in the survey were doctors, and all those involved in the research on the ground, says the paper, risked their lives to collect the data. Householders were asked about births and deaths in the 14.6 months before the March 2003 invasion, and births and deaths in the 17.8 months afterward.
When death certificates were not available, there were good reasons, say the authors. “We think it is unlikely that deaths were falsely recorded. Interviewers also believed that in the Iraqi culture it was unlikely for respondents to fabricate deaths,” they write.
They found an increase in infant mortality from 29 to 57 deaths per 1,000 live births, which is consistent with the pattern in wars, where women are unable or unwilling to get to the hospital to deliver babies, they say. The other increase was in violent death, which was reported in 15 of the 33 clusters studied and which was mostly attributed to airstrikes.
“Despite widespread Iraqi casualties, household interview data do not show evidence of widespread wrongdoing on the part of individual soldiers on the ground,” write the researchers. Only three of the 61 deaths involved coalition soldiers killing Iraqis with small arms fire. In one case, a 56-year-old man might have been a combatant, they say; in the second, a 72-year-old man was shot at a checkpoint; and in the third, an armed guard was mistaken for a combatant and shot during a skirmish. In the second two cases, American soldiers apologized to the families.
“The remaining 58 killings (all attributed to U.S. forces by interviewees) were caused by helicopter gunships, rockets or other forms of aerial weaponry,” they write. The biggest death toll recorded by the researchers was in Fallujah, which registered two-thirds of the violent deaths they found. “In Falluja, 23 households of 52 visited were either temporarily or permanently abandoned. Neighbors interviewed described widespread death in most of the abandoned houses but could not give adequate details for inclusion in the survey,” they write.
The researchers criticize the failure of the coalition authorities to attempt to assess for themselves the scale of the civilian casualties. “U.S. General Tommy Franks is widely quoted as saying ‘we don’t do body counts,’” they write, but occupying armies have responsibilities under the Geneva Convention. “This survey shows that with modest funds, four weeks and seven Iraqi team members willing to risk their lives, a useful measure of civilian deaths could be obtained.”
UK rejects US policy on AIDS
Minister rejects Bush reliance on abstinence, and backs use of generic drugs.
The UK yesterday signalled a major rift with the United States over its Aids policies, publicly rejecting the Bush doctrine that sexual abstinence is the best way to stop the spread of the pandemic.
The international development minister, Gareth Thomas, also made it clear the UK did not support the US over its reluctance to endorse the use of cheaper, generic drugs to fight the disease.
Arriving at the International Aids conference yesterday, where America has been relentlessly attacked by campaigners and criticised by UN agencies, Mr Thomas said that the UK was neither prepared to fall in with conservative American thinking nor sit on the sidelines.
Continue Reading CloseU.S. defends abstinence policy
Amid doubters -- and protesters -- at AIDS conference, Bush official seeks cooperation.
The man charged with implementing George Bush’s $15bn (#8bn) emergency plan to fight Aids yesterday embarked on a spirited defence of American policy, calling for his opponents to sink their differences with the US in the interests of global action against the disease.
Randall Tobias, speaking to the International Aids conference in Bangkok, supported policies that have been heavily criticised such as sexual abstinence as the best way to avoid HIV/Aids. He also backed the US’s determination to spend its money on its own bilateral priorities in selected countries. He suggested that the sometimes aggressive opposition to the US way of doing things was counter-productive.
Continue Reading CloseFrance accuses U.S. of AIDS blackmail
Bush administration is accused of trade deals that stop developing countries from producing life-saving drugs.
America was yesterday accused by France of blackmailing developing countries into giving up their right to produce cheap drugs for AIDS victims.
In a move that may strain tense relations between the two countries, the French president, Jacques Chirac, said there existed a real problem of favourable trade deals being dangled before poor nations in return for those countries halting production of life-saving generic drugs.
These cheap drugs compete with identical but more expensive patented varieties made by the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies.
Continue Reading CloseAIDS treatment falls short
UN report claims only small percentage of HIV/AIDS patients receive needed care.
The global response to HIV/Aids is falling far short of what is needed to turn around the pandemic, with only a tiny minority of those affected receiving treatment and prevention programmes patchy, UNAids warned yesterday.
Two reports from UNAids at the Bangkok International Aids conference revealed that Aids prevention programmes had yet to have a significant impact on the spread of the virus.
Only 7% of those with HIV who need drugs to stay alive over the next two years are getting them, and a mere 8% of babies whose mothers are HIV-positive are being protected by one pill given to the woman while in labour and another to the child after it is born.
Continue Reading CloseAnger after U.S. blocks AIDS scientists
Conference forced to cancel meetings and retract papers after authors stopped from attending.
The US government came under scathing attack from senior members of the medical establishment yesterday for blocking scientists from attending the International AIDS conference which opened in Bangkok.
The biennial conference, with 17,000 delegates, is more political rally than scientific meeting and bears huge significance for those involved in the fight against HIV/AIDS.
The US government has sent only a fraction of its usual contingent of scientists, pleading cost 50 instead of the 236 who attended the last event in Barcelona in 2002.
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